Čukarički vs OFK Beograd: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

Serbian Super League15 August 2026 21:00 CESTStadion Čukarički, Belgrad26°15 km/h

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ČukaričkiLow block & direct

OFK BeogradPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Čukarički (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · OFK Beograd @ 3.50 (+15 %)

1 · Čukarički 35%X 33%33% OFK Beograd · 2

35%

33%

Analysis: Čukarički – OFK Beograd

Erik Lindberg · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Five matches between these sides since 2023 cast a shadow over FK Cukaricki, with OFK Beograd clinching three wins to FK Cukaricki's one. Yet, it's FK Cukaricki who sits slightly higher on the Super League table with seven points compared to OFK Beograd's five, offering a glimmer of an edge. They're also ahead on expected goals metrics: FK Cukaricki boasts 1.42 expected goals versus OFK's 1.33, which suggests that on paper, FK Cukaricki might edge it if they convert their chances.

FK Cukaricki's strategy is clear: a low defensive line paired with direct attacks. It’s a style that’s brought them modest success this season, and while their backline has been porous, conceding 1.4 xGA per match, their offensive approach could exploit OFK's slight defensive frailties (1.2 xGA per match). On the flip side, OFK Beograd's possession-focused approach may not suit them well against a team like FK Cukaricki, who will look to counter swiftly.

The model leans towards a home victory for FK Cukaricki, pegging their win probability at 35% against OFK Beograd’s 33%. The most likely scorelines are tight, though; 1-1 sits at a 12% likelihood, followed by 1-0 and 2-1, both at 9%. This suggests a close contest but hints at a slight FK Cukaricki advantage, while the over 2.5 goals probability rests just above the equilibrium at 52%, indicating a potentially open game.

However, the sharpest angle comes from the betting odds. There's value in backing OFK Beograd at odds of 3.5 with Bet365, as the model sees a 15% edge there. Similarly, a draw shares the same odds and value, hinting at a game that could easily end in stalemate or a narrow away win. While FK Cukaricki has reasons to be optimistic, these generous odds suggest that the betting market might be undervaluing OFK Beograd's recent edge in this fixture.

Čukarički

Form DLWWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #7xP/match #4Points #4

Key players

Marko DocićFxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Srđan MijailovićCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
Uroš MiladinovićCAMxG 0.45 · xT 0.16

OFK Beograd

Form WLDWD

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #11xP/match #12Points #6

Key players

Ethan HoardFxG 0.08 · xT 0.01
Dognimani Yacouba SiluéFxG 0.48 · xT 0.03
Aleksa CvetkovićCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Čukarički – OFK Beograd

Predicted score matrix

OFK Beograd →

Čukarički →

0–06.8%

0–18.2%

0–25.7%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.1%

1–08.8%

1–112.4%

1–28.0%

1–33.5%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.5%

2–18.6%

2–25.7%

2–32.5%

2–4+1.1%

3–03.0%

3–14.0%

3–22.7%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.5%

4+–12.0%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-09%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,42–1,33

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@1.85

Over 2,552%

@1.95EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Čukarički or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Čukarički or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Uroš Miladinović to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Uroš Miladinović to score28%
Edmund Addo to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · OFK Beograd33% probability@3.50Bet365EV+15%
X · Draw33% probability@3.50Bet365EV+14%
X · Draw33% probability@3.37PinnacleEV+10%

Bookmaker	1 · Čukarički	X	2 · OFK Beograd
Bet365	2.00	EV+ 14% 3.50	EV+ 15% 3.50
Betfair Exchange	1.09	1.09	1.09
Betsafe	2.20	EV+ 6% 3.25	2.98
Betsson	2.20	EV+ 6% 3.25	2.98
Nordicbet	2.20	EV+ 6% 3.25	2.98
Pinnacle	2.22	EV+ 10% 3.37	2.87

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:18

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Čukarički 1Draw 1OFK Beograd 3

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

Key facts

OFK Beograd dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Čukarički

OFK Beograd

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Čukarički (7–3)

OFK Beograd (6–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Čukarički

OFK Beograd

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Čukarički

OFK Beograd

The teams in numbers

Performance	Čukarički	OFK Beograd
Points	7	5
xPoints	6.2	4.5
xG per match	1.2	1.1
xGA per match	1.4	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.43	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.17	0.23

Playing style	Čukarički	OFK Beograd
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.35	0.51
xT per match	0.97	0.76
xTA per match	1.6	0.75
Won balls, offensive half	28	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.28
Entries into the box per match	11	8
Entries into the box against	18	9
Pass completion %	0.65	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.6	0.65
Passes per match	208	287
Passes against per match	349	270
Switches of play per match	15.7	14.4
Long balls per match	26	24

Set pieces	Čukarički	OFK Beograd
xG from free kicks	0	0.09
Corners per match	2.7	3.5
Corners against per match	7	3.8
xG per corner	0.05	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.55	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.36	0.93

Other	Čukarički	OFK Beograd
Throw-in control	0.59	0.65

The goalkeepers	Đorđe Nikolić (Čukarički)	Vuk Draškić (OFK Beograd)
Saves	17	7
Save %	85%	70%
xG prevented	84%	41%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Čukarički vs OFK Beograd according to our model?

The model gives Čukarički a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Čukarički 35%, draw 33%, OFK Beograd 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.