01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Novi Pazar to win45%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serbian Super League24°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
Novi Pazar1–4
OFK BeogradThe model's lean: 1 · Novi Pazar (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.40 (+2 %)
Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd · Serbian Super League
1 · Novi Pazar 45%X 30%25% OFK Beograd · 2
45%
30%
25%
Final score
1 – 4
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Novi Pazar 45% · Draw 30% · OFK Beograd 25%
Match prediction: Novi Pazar – OFK Beograd
Predicted score matrix
OFK Beograd →
Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.5%
0–17.5%
0–24.3%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–010.8%
1–112.4%
1–26.6%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.6%
2–19.3%
2–25.1%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–04.4%
3–14.8%
3–22.6%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–12.6%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,54–1,09
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.92
Over 2,549%
@2.00
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 2 legs
Balanced
- Novi Pazar to win45%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
03 · 2 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.40Bet365EV+2%reference odds
- X · Draw30% probability@3.37PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
- X · Draw30% probability@3.35Betfair ExchangeEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Novi Pazar | X | 2 · OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | EV+ 2% 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betfair Exchange | 2.12 | EV+ 0% 3.35 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | EV+ 1% 3.37 | 3.90 |
Odds updated 1 Aug, 00:08
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Novi Pazar win since 30 July — the odds have shortened from 2.08 to 1.84 (−12%).
1-12 %
52 %42 %
2.08 → 1.84
X0 %
32 %22 %
3.37 → 3.37
2+25 %
31 %21 %
3.13 → 3.90
Over 2,5+7 %
54 %44 %
1.86 → 1.99
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 30/07/2026 → 01/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Novi Pazar vs OFK Beograd according to our model?
The model gives Novi Pazar a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Novi Pazar 45%, draw 30%, OFK Beograd 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.