Vojvodina vs Mačva Šabac: Prediction & Odds (3 Aug 2026)

Serbian Super League3 August 2026 19:00 CESTKarađorđe-stadion, Novi Sad32°16 km/h

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VojvodinaPossession control

2–0

Mačva ŠabacLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Vojvodina (71%)Best value by the model: 2 · Mačva Šabac @ 21.00 (+187 %)

1 · Vojvodina 71%X 15%14% Mačva Šabac · 2

71%

15%

14%

Analysis: Vojvodina – Mačva Šabac

Anna Karlsson · 3 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

71% is the magic number here, with FK Vojvodina Novi Sad heavily favored to clinch victory against FK Macva Sabac. The numbers tell a compelling story of dominance. With FK Vojvodina's expected goals at 2.23 compared to Macva's meager 0.94, the hosts seem poised for a comfortable run on the pitch. Their style of possession control should overpower Macva's low defense and direct approach, especially given the visitors' porous defense, which has been leaking goals at an alarming 3.1 xGA per match.

FK Vojvodina Novi Sad enters this match with a solid start to their campaign, securing 3 points and boasting a strong xPoints tally of 3.4. Meanwhile, FK Macva Sabac lags with zero points and a bleak xPoints of 1.3, painting a picture of a side struggling to find its rhythm. It’s hard to see how Macva can stand firm against Vojvodina’s offensive charge, particularly when their xG per match is only 0.41. The most likely scorelines of 2-0 or 2-1 to Vojvodina reflect the underlying dominance expected here.

But while FK Vojvodina is the safe bet, the betting markets reveal a juicy underdog opportunity. Bet365 offers odds of 21.0 for an away win, and although the model rates that probability at just 14%, the odds present a staggering 187% edge. For the bold punter, this value (EV+) cannot be ignored, even if the chances are slim.

The over 2.5 goals market is another angle to consider, with a 61% likelihood. Given FK Vojvodina's offensive potential and Macva’s defensive frailties, a high-scoring affair is on the cards. Yet, the sharper edge lies in the draw at 12.0 with Bet365, offering an 81% edge. So, while FK Vojvodina Novi Sad should walk away with the win, the real intrigue lies in the potential for chaos at lucrative odds.

Vojvodina

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #7xP/match #5Points #7

Key players

Nardin MulahusejnovicFxG 1.06 · xT 0.02
Lazar RanđelovićRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.18
Njegoš PetrovićCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.11

Mačva Šabac

Form LL

League ranking xG #13xGA #14xT #13xP/match #13Points #14

Key players

Bosko VrastanovicFxG 0.01 · xT 0.26
Milan VidakovFxG 0.29 · xT 0.01
Abdulahi Sani MuhamedRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.00

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Vojvodina 71% · Draw 15% · Mačva Šabac 14%

Match prediction: Vojvodina – Mačva Šabac

Predicted score matrix

Mačva Šabac →

Vojvodina →

0–04.4%

0–13.7%

0–21.9%

0–30.6%

0–4+0.2%

1–09.1%

1–19.0%

1–24.1%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.4%

2–19.8%

2–24.6%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.4%

3–07.8%

3–17.3%

3–23.4%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.3%

4+–07.3%

4+–16.9%

4+–23.2%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-010%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,23–0,94

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@4.00EV+54%

Over 2,561%

@1.22

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Vojvodina to win71%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Vojvodina to win71%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Aleksa Vukanović to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Aleksa Vukanović to score38%
Kristijan Tojčić to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Mačva Šabac14% probability@21.00Bet365EV+187%reference odds
2 · Mačva Šabac14% probability@14.82PinnacleEV+103%reference odds
X · Draw15% probability@12.00Bet365EV+81%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Vojvodina	X	2 · Mačva Šabac
Bet365	1.07	EV+ 81% 12.00	EV+ 187% 21.00
Pinnacle	1.11	EV+ 26% 8.33	EV+ 103% 14.82

Odds updated 3 Aug, 10:08

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 31 July — the odds have shortened from 10.80 to 8.33 (−23%).

1+7 %

88 %83 %

1.04 → 1.11

X-23 %

12 %7 %

10.80 → 8.33

2-29 %

8 %3 %

20.86 → 14.82

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 31/07/2026 → 03/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Vojvodina

Mačva Šabac

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Vojvodina (5–3)

Mačva Šabac (1–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Vojvodina

Mačva Šabac

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Vojvodina

Mačva Šabac

The teams in numbers

Performance	Vojvodina	Mačva Šabac
Points	3	0
xPoints	3.4	1.3
xG per match	1.6	0.41
xGA per match	1.7	3.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.07
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.64	0.31

Playing style	Vojvodina	Mačva Šabac
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.15
Field tilt	0.52	0.13
xT per match	0.94	0.58
xTA per match	1.2	1.9
Won balls, offensive half	28	15
Pressing intensity	0.19	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	5
Entries into the box against	13	21
Pass completion %	0.74	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.62
Passes per match	288	192
Passes against per match	402	461
Switches of play per match	17.7	9
Long balls per match	24	19

Set pieces	Vojvodina	Mačva Šabac
xG from free kicks	0.04	0
Corners per match	4	2
Corners against per match	3.5	6
xG per corner	0.01	0.11
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.12	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.29	0.42

Other	Vojvodina	Mačva Šabac
Throw-in control	0.65	0.55

The goalkeepers	Dragan Rosić (Vojvodina)	Kosta Rakonić (Mačva Šabac)
Saves	10	8
Save %	77%	53%
xG prevented	65%	22%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Vojvodina

Fixtures, form & tips

Mačva Šabac

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Vojvodina vs Mačva Šabac according to our model?

The model gives Vojvodina a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Vojvodina 71%, draw 15%, Mačva Šabac 14%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.