IMT vs Radnički Niš: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

Serbian Super League15 August 202626°17 km/h

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IMTCounter-attacks & crosses

Radnički NišPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · IMT (43%)Best value by the model: 2 · Radnički Niš @ 4.00 (+8 %)

1 · IMT 43%X 30%27% Radnički Niš · 2

43%

30%

27%

Analysis: IMT – Radnički Niš

Anna Karlsson · 11 August 2026 · How the predictions work

Nine points to three — that's the stark difference between FK IMT Belgrad and FK Radnicki Nis in the league standings, a testament to Belgrad's superior form. While points in the pocket may weigh heavily in the psyche of FK IMT Belgrad's players, the xPoints tell a slightly tighter tale, with Belgrad holding a 7.1 to 4.1 advantage. The numbers suggest a match that leans towards FK IMT Belgrad, but one that teeters on the edge of unpredictability.

FK IMT Belgrad’s strategy of counter attacking and crossing has proven effective against FK Radnicki Nis, reflected in their head-to-head record since 2023, though the sample size is just six games. Despite the small sample, Belgrad has come out ahead with three wins, an impressive feat that correlates with their knack for soaking up pressure and striking on the break. Yet, FK Radnicki Nis is no pushover, wielding a possession-heavy, high-press approach that could disrupt Belgrad’s rhythm.

The expected goals forecast underlines FK IMT Belgrad’s slight upper hand, pegged at 1.38 to Nis's 1.10. However, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline at a 13% probability, followed by a narrow 1-0 win for Belgrad. The over 2.5 goals market sits below the 50% threshold, leaning towards a cautious affair, while both teams finding the net is a coin flip at 50%. Such metrics suggest a tilt towards a low-scoring encounter, potentially a 1-0 squeak for the home side.

While FK IMT Belgrad seems the safer bet, the shrewd punter might be tempted by the odds dangling on FK Radnicki Nis. The away win at 3.85 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offers an EV+ proposition, edging the model's 27% probability by 4%. The numbers hint that, despite Belgrad's edge, there's value in taking a calculated risk on the visitors springing a surprise.

IMT

Form DWWWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #6xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Charly Soualio KeitaFxG 0.51 · xT 0.05
Vasilije NovičićCMxG 0.20 · xT 0.09
Dušan ŽagarRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.18

Radnički Niš

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #3xP/match #9Points #11

Key players

Radomir MilosavljevićCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.16
Issah AbassLWxG 0.58 · xT 0.38
Uroš VitasCBxG 0.22 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: IMT – Radnički Niš

Predicted score matrix

Radnički Niš →

IMT →

0–08.7%

0–18.8%

0–25.1%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–011.2%

1–113.1%

1–27.0%

1–32.6%

1–4+0.9%

2–07.9%

2–18.8%

2–24.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–03.7%

3–14.0%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.2-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,38–1,10

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.75

Over 2,545%

@2.29EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance IMT or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance IMT or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Charly Soualio Keita to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Charly Soualio Keita to score27%
Elimane Franck Kanouté to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Radnički Niš27% probability@4.00Bet365EV+8%
X · Draw30% probability@3.50Bet365EV+6%
Over 2.545% probability@2.29PinnacleEV+4%

Bookmaker	1 · IMT	X	2 · Radnički Niš
Bet365	1.85	EV+ 6% 3.50	EV+ 8% 4.00
Betsafe	2.20	2.92	3.35
Betsson	2.20	2.92	3.35
Nordicbet	2.20	2.92	3.35
Paddy Power	1.85	EV+ 0% 3.30	EV+ 3% 3.80
Pinnacle	2.21	2.93	3.31

Odds updated 13 Aug, 14:18

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

IMT 3Draw 1Radnički Niš 2

Goals: 8–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

IMT

Radnički Niš

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

IMT (7–2)

Radnički Niš (2–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

IMT

Radnički Niš

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

IMT

Radnički Niš

The teams in numbers

Performance	IMT	Radnički Niš
Points	9	3
xPoints	7.1	4.1
xG per match	1.7	1.7
xGA per match	0.75	0.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.24	0.19
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.1

Playing style	IMT	Radnički Niš
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.31
Field tilt	0.53	0.8
xT per match	1.2	1.6
xTA per match	0.83	0.62
Won balls, offensive half	27	31
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.19
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.36	0.28
Entries into the box per match	12	18
Entries into the box against	9	9
Pass completion %	0.75	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.78
Passes per match	337	423
Passes against per match	260	221
Switches of play per match	17.6	27.8
Long balls per match	32	39

Set pieces	IMT	Radnički Niš
xG from free kicks	0.03	0
Corners per match	6.2	6.2
Corners against per match	3	2.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.67

Other	IMT	Radnički Niš
Throw-in control	0.73	0.74

The goalkeepers	Ognjen Čančarević (IMT)	Strahinja Manojlović (Radnički Niš)
Saves	8	4
Save %	80%	50%
xG prevented	90%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins IMT vs Radnički Niš according to our model?

The model gives IMT a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IMT 43%, draw 30%, Radnički Niš 27%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.