01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Partizan Belgrade to win61%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Serbian Super LeaguePartizans stadion, Belgrad26°17 km/h
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Partizan BelgradePossession & high pressvs
Radnički 1923Possession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Partizan Belgrade (61%)Best value by the model: 2 · Radnički 1923 @ 5.75 (+13 %)
Partizan Belgrade – Radnički 1923 · Serbian Super League
1 · Partizan Belgrade 61%X 20%20% Radnički 1923 · 2
61%
20%
20%
Analysis: Partizan Belgrade – Radnički 1923
Marcus Johansson · · How the predictions work
Four wins from five meetings since 2023 suggest that FK Partizan Belgrade has a firm grip on this matchup against FK Radnicki 1923. The historical dominance is clear, with Partizan consistently finding ways to outmaneuver Radnicki. Yet, it's the clash of styles that truly intrigues. Partizan's high press and possession game will look to disrupt Radnicki's more measured possession control. With their strong home record, claiming victory in 59% of their fixtures, Partizan seems poised to assert their advantage again.
FK Partizan Belgrade stands as a clear favorite with a 61% probability of victory, and the expected goals further support this narrative, indicating a likely scoreline of 1.84 to 1.11 in favor of the home side. However, there's a curious tension here as FK Radnicki 1923 edges the xG per match at 1.9, compared to Partizan's 1.4. This could suggest that Radnicki, while less dominant in past meetings, has the capability to create threatening opportunities.
The most probable scorelines are tightly contested with 1-1 at 11% and 2-1 at 10%. The weather doesn't feature in the facts, so we can expect the usual intensity. With the over 2.5 goals market at 56%, and both teams to score at 57%, there’s a decent case for a lively match. The high-scoring history of this fixture, averaging 3.8 goals per meeting, underscores this potential.
Now, if you're looking for a betting angle, FK Radnicki 1923 at odds of 6.0 with Paddy Power jumps out as a potential value bet. The model rates their chance of winning at 20%, offering an 18% edge. Although unlikely, Radnicki's knack for generating chances could tip the scales, making this long shot worth a punt for those who fancy an upset.
Partizan BelgradeForm DWDWL
League ranking xG #7xGA #5xT #8xP/match #5Points #7
Key players
- Aleks ZekovićCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.04
- Zubairu IbrahimLWxG 0.29 · xT 0.01
- Vukašin ĐurđevićCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
Radnički 1923Form DDLLW
League ranking xG #2xGA #7xT #2xP/match #8Points #10
Key players
- Nemanja GlavčićFxG 0.29 · xT 0.27
- Slobodan SimovićCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.11
- Nikola MarjanovićCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Partizan Belgrade – Radnički 1923
Predicted score matrix
Radnički 1923 →
Partizan Belgrade →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–15.5%
0–23.2%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–09.4%
1–111.0%
1–25.9%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.8%
2–25.4%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.4%
3–16.0%
3–23.3%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–14.2%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,84–1,11
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+18%
Under 2,544%
@2.20
Over 2,556%
@1.68
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Partizan Belgrade to win61%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Erik Kojzek to score39%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Erik Kojzek to score39%
- Nikola Bukumira to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Radnički 192320% probability@5.75Bet365EV+13%
- 2 · Radnički 192320% probability@5.50Paddy PowerEV+8%
- Both teams to score: Yes57% probability@1.83Bet365EV+4%
| Bookmaker | 1 · Partizan Belgrade | X | 2 · Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.10 | EV+ 13% 5.75 |
| Betsafe | EV+ 0% 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.65 |
| Betsson | EV+ 0% 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.65 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 0% 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.65 |
| Paddy Power | 1.44 | 4.20 | EV+ 8% 5.50 |
Odds updated 13 Aug, 16:00
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Radnički 1923 win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 5.30 to 4.65 (−12%).
1+9 %
62 %52 %
1.52 → 1.65
X-4 %
29 %19 %
3.85 → 3.70
2-12 %
24 %14 %
5.30 → 4.65
Over 2,50 %
61 %51 %
1.68 → 1.68
Betsson · 6 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 13/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesPartizan Belgrade 4Draw 1Radnički 1923 0
Goals: 13–6 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- FK Partizan Belgrade dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.8 goals per meeting on average.
- FK Partizan Belgrade win 59% of their home matches all-time (39 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Partizan Belgrade
Radnički 1923
Partizan Belgrade (6–5)
Radnički 1923 (3–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Partizan Belgrade
Radnički 1923
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Partizan Belgrade
Radnički 1923
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Partizan Belgrade | Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 3 |
| xPoints | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.5 |
| Playing style | Partizan Belgrade | Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 1.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.83 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 20 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 417 | 367 |
| Passes against per match | 219 | 183 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.2 | 27.5 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Partizan Belgrade | Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 8.4 |
| Corners against per match | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.5 |
| Other | Partizan Belgrade | Radnički 1923 |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Stefan Milic (Partizan Belgrade) | Luka Lijeskić (Radnički 1923) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 9 |
| Save % | 100% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Partizan Belgrade vs Radnički 1923 according to our model?
The model gives Partizan Belgrade a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Partizan Belgrade 61%, draw 20%, Radnički 1923 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.