Serbian Super League

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    Radnik SurdulicaRadnik SurdulicaPossession & high press
    vs
    Novi PazarNovi PazarPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Radnik Surdulica (37%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Novi Pazar @ 3.80 (+24 %)

    Radnik Surdulica – Novi Pazar · Serbian Super League

    1 · Radnik Surdulica 37%X 30%33% Novi Pazar · 2

    Analysis: Radnik Surdulica – Novi Pazar

    Sofia Andersson · · How the predictions work

    Five points to FK Radnik Surdulica's name, a slight edge over FK Novi Pazar's four, sets the stage for a curious tussle in the Serbian Super League. More than just the points, Radnik's numbers offer a hint of dominance, especially in expected goals allowed per match: 0.82 against Novi Pazar's leaky 1.5. It's a defensive solidity that might just tip the scales, given Radnik's high-pressing style, against a Novi Pazar side focused on possession control.

    FK Radnik Surdulica, with their high press, is designed to disrupt, and their profile suggests they might just succeed in unsettling Novi Pazar's possession game. However, the head-to-head since 2023 shows a small sample of six matches, where Radnik holds a narrow 2-3 record. This historical pattern shouldn't overshadow the season's form and the evidence of a slightly sharper edge in expected goals and xPoints for Radnik.

    Numbers like 1.28 expected goals for Radnik against Novi Pazar's 1.35 point to a tightly contested affair. The model hovers at just under a 50% chance for over 2.5 goals, indicating a tight, possibly low-scoring match. Given the 54% chance for both teams to score, a 1-1 draw, the most likely outcome at 13%, seems reasonable. Yet, the pressing edge could allow Radnik to nip it 1-0, matching the 9% likelihood of both a 1-0 and a 0-1 scoreline.

    Novi Pazar's away odds at 3.8 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a tantalizing value, with a model-rated 33% probability against a bookmaker's implied probability significantly lower. A 24% value edge makes this an attractive betting angle, even in a match where Radnik has the home edge. In the end, while Radnik may have the slight statistical advantage, punters might find the better value on Novi Pazar, given the odds on offer.

    Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica
    Form LDDLW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #3xP/match #4Points #8
    Key players
    • Miloš PopovićFxG 0.12 · xT 0.15
    • Vukašin BogdanovićFxG 0.64 · xT 0.06
    • Aleksandar PejovićCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.71
    Novi PazarNovi Pazar
    Form LWDLL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #10xT #13xP/match #7Points #12
    Key players
    • Dominic Wadi SadiCAMxG 0.38 · xT 0.02
    • Vieiri KotzebueFxG 0.32 · xT 0.08
    • Kaheim Anthony DixonLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Radnik Surdulica – Novi Pazar

    Predicted score matrix

    Novi Pazar →
    Radnik Surdulica →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.6%
    0–19.4%
    0–26.6%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.4%
    1
    1–08.8%
    1–112.8%
    1–28.4%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+1.7%
    2
    2–05.9%
    2–18.0%
    2–25.4%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–02.5%
    3–13.4%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.1%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.1-28%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,28–1,35
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.68
    Over 2,549%
    @2.08EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X)62%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    46%

    Fair odds

    2.19

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Radnik Surdulica or draw (1X)62%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Vukašin Bogdanović to score30%

    Combined probability

    11%

    Fair odds

    9.37

    Result and goals are priced jointly from the matrix; the scorer is the model's most likely in the picked side.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Vukašin Bogdanović to score30%
    • Jovan Marinković to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    3%

    Fair odds

    36.03

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals — combined with the match's most likely scorer and card candidate.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Novi Pazar33% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+24%
    • 2 · Novi Pazar33% probability@3.80BetssonEV+24%
    • 2 · Novi Pazar33% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+24%
    Bookmaker1 · Radnik SurdulicaX2 · Novi Pazar
    Betsafe1.883.25
    EV+ 24%
    3.80
    Betsson1.883.25
    EV+ 24%
    3.80
    Nordicbet1.883.25
    EV+ 24%
    3.80

    Odds updated 17 Aug, 14:35

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Radnik Surdulica 2Draw 1Novi Pazar 3
    Goals: 5–8 (⌀ 2,2)

    Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Radnik Surdulica
    Novi Pazar
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Radnik Surdulica (4–4)
    Novi Pazar (2–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Radnik Surdulica
    David Stojanovic: 160 passningar, xT 0.48StojanovicSadick Abubakar: 133 passningar, xT 0.2AbubakarMiloš Popović: 130 passningar, xT 0.55PopovićMartin Novaković: 118 passningar, xT 0.27NovakovićTijan Sonha Drammeh: 89 passningar, xT 0.7DrammehStefan Ranđelović: 89 passningar, xT 0.06RanđelovićUroš Lazić: 78 passningar, xT 0.31LazićAleksandar Pejović: 73 passningar, xT 1.07PejovićVukašin Bogdanović: 60 passningar, xT -0.24BogdanovićMateja Gašić: 54 passningar, xT 0.43GašićĐorđe Jovanović: 47 passningar, xT 0.07Jovanović
    Novi Pazar
    Ahmed Hadžimujović: 172 passningar, xT 0.34HadžimujovićJovan Marinković: 157 passningar, xT 0.64MarinkovićAleksandar Miljković: 151 passningar, xT 0.22MiljkovićIvan Davidović: 119 passningar, xT 0.24DavidovićMiloje Preković: 69 passningar, xT 0.07PrekovićVeljko Mirosavić: 65 passningar, xT 0.27MirosavićDominic Wadi Sadi: 62 passningar, xT 0.02SadiTomislav Dadic: 57 passningar, xT 0.09DadicSkima Togbe: 50 passningar, xT 0.1TogbeDauda Johnson Agwom: 43 passningar, xT 0.12AgwomVieiri Kotzebue: 40 passningar, xT 0.16Kotzebue
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Radnik Surdulica
    David Stojanovic: 160 passningar, xT 0.48StojanovicSadick Abubakar: 133 passningar, xT 0.2AbubakarMiloš Popović: 130 passningar, xT 0.55PopovićMartin Novaković: 118 passningar, xT 0.27NovakovićTijan Sonha Drammeh: 89 passningar, xT 0.7DrammehStefan Ranđelović: 89 passningar, xT 0.06RanđelovićUroš Lazić: 78 passningar, xT 0.31LazićAleksandar Pejović: 73 passningar, xT 1.07PejovićVukašin Bogdanović: 60 passningar, xT -0.24BogdanovićMateja Gašić: 54 passningar, xT 0.43GašićĐorđe Jovanović: 47 passningar, xT 0.07Jovanović
    Novi Pazar
    Ahmed Hadžimujović: 172 passningar, xT 0.34HadžimujovićJovan Marinković: 157 passningar, xT 0.64MarinkovićAleksandar Miljković: 151 passningar, xT 0.22MiljkovićIvan Davidović: 119 passningar, xT 0.24DavidovićMiloje Preković: 69 passningar, xT 0.07PrekovićVeljko Mirosavić: 65 passningar, xT 0.27MirosavićDominic Wadi Sadi: 62 passningar, xT 0.02SadiTomislav Dadic: 57 passningar, xT 0.09DadicSkima Togbe: 50 passningar, xT 0.1TogbeDauda Johnson Agwom: 43 passningar, xT 0.12AgwomVieiri Kotzebue: 40 passningar, xT 0.16Kotzebue

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRadnik SurdulicaNovi Pazar
    Points54
    xPoints6.65.6
    xG per match1.41.2
    xGA per match0.821.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.10.23
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.140.25
    Playing styleRadnik SurdulicaNovi Pazar
    Build-up efficiency0.290.3
    Field tilt0.640.48
    xT per match1.40.71
    xTA per match0.961.2
    Won balls, offensive half2724
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.380.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.350.3
    Entries into the box per match1511
    Entries into the box against1214
    Pass completion %0.710.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.7
    Passes per match298293
    Passes against per match249302
    Switches of play per match17.930.1
    Long balls per match2543
    Set piecesRadnik SurdulicaNovi Pazar
    xG from free kicks0.020
    Corners per match4.34.8
    Corners against per match4.85
    xG per corner0.020.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.470.37
    First touch, defensive corners %0.680.45
    OtherRadnik SurdulicaNovi Pazar
    Throw-in control0.760.64
    The goalkeepersStefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica)Miloje Preković (Novi Pazar)
    Saves1312
    Save %77%75%
    xG prevented44%64%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar according to our model?

    The model gives Radnik Surdulica a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnik Surdulica 37%, draw 30%, Novi Pazar 33%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.