Slovak Super League26°10 km/h

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    Dukla Banska BystricaDukla Banska BystricaLow block & direct
    3–4
    ŽilinaŽilinaPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Žilina (48%)Best value by the model: 1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica @ 4.30 (+15 %)

    Dukla Banska Bystrica – Žilina · Slovak Super League

    1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica 27%X 25%48% Žilina · 2

    Analysis: Dukla Banska Bystrica – Žilina

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Six straight losses for Dukla Banska Bystrica tell a grim tale, painting a picture of a team mired in struggles. Their direct, low defence style seems ill-suited against the possession-dominant MSK Zilina, who hold a clear edge with a 48% chance of victory according to the model. The hosts' xG of 0.79 per match pales in comparison to Zilina's 1.9, mirroring the gap in quality and form that points to an away win.

    MSK Zilina, with 4 points since 2023 against Dukla Banska Bystrica, might not have a vast head-to-head record, but they've been the better side in both encounters. This small sample is backed by the expected goals, which also lean heavily in Zilina's favour: 1.92 to Dukla's 1.26. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 reflect a potential for goals, but it's Zilina's tighter defence (xGA of 1.4) against Dukla's leaky backline (xGA of 3.0) that could prove decisive.

    Value hunters might be tempted by Dukla's odds of 4.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a tantalising 14% edge over the model's 27% chance of a home win. Yet, given their current form and defensive vulnerabilities, this seems a risky punt. The model’s confidence in Zilina is underscored by both their superior points tally and expected points, making them the more reliable side to back.

    Expect goals, as the over 2.5 goals probability stands at a robust 62%, with both teams having a 61% chance to find the net. While Dukla has shown a knack for conceding, their offensive numbers hint that they might snatch at least one. However, everything points to a 1-2 victory for Zilina, as they look to capitalise on Dukla's ongoing woes.

    Dukla Banska BystricaDukla Banska Bystrica
    Form LLLLL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #10xP/match #12Points #12
    Key players
    • Róbert PolievkaFxG 0.17 · xT 0.13
    • Regő SzánthóCAMxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
    • Adam HanesRWxG 0.12 · xT -0.04
    ŽilinaŽilina
    Form LLDWL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #2xP/match #8Points #6
    Key players
    • Michal FaskoFxG 0.09 · xT 0.21
    • Fabian BzdylLWxG 0.22 · xT 0.06
    • Patrik IlkoLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.08
    Final score
    3 – 4
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Dukla Banska Bystrica 27% · Draw 25% · Žilina 48%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FK Dukla Banská BystricaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 12,61fair 12,48+1 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - MŠK ŽilinaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,67fair 5,32-12 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Dukla Banska Bystrica – Žilina

    Predicted score matrix

    Žilina →
    Dukla Banska Bystrica →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.4%
    0–17.7%
    0–27.7%
    0–34.9%
    0–4+3.7%
    1
    1–05.0%
    1–110.3%
    1–29.7%
    1–36.2%
    1–4+4.6%
    2
    2–03.3%
    2–16.3%
    2–26.1%
    2–33.9%
    2–4+2.9%
    3
    3–01.4%
    3–12.6%
    3–22.5%
    3–31.6%
    3–4+1.2%
    4+
    4+–00.6%
    4+–11.1%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.1-210%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.0-28%
    5. 5.2-16%
    Expected goals
    1,26–1,92
    Both teams to score
    61%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,2
    Under 2,538%
    @2.26
    Over 2,562%
    @1.64EV+1%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Žilina to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals83%

    Combined probability

    45%

    Fair odds

    2.24

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Žilina to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Fabian Bzdyl to score17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score61%
    • Over 2.5 goals62%
    • Fabian Bzdyl to score17%
    • Miroslav Káčer to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica27% probability@4.30BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    • 1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica27% probability@4.30BetssonEV+15%reference odds
    • 1 · Dukla Banska Bystrica27% probability@4.30NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Dukla Banska BystricaX2 · Žilina
    Bet365
    EV+ 10%
    4.10    		3.801.73
    Betfair Exchange1.541.561.87
    Betsafe
    EV+ 15%
    4.30    		3.801.62
    Betsson
    EV+ 15%
    4.30    		3.801.62
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 15%
    4.30    		3.801.62
    Pinnacle
    EV+ 14%
    4.25
    EV+ 3%
    4.08    		1.73

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:12

    Odds movement

    1-7 %
    24 %19 %

    4.55 → 4.25

    X-3 %
    25 %20 %

    4.21 → 4.08

    2+7 %
    59 %54 %

    1.61 → 1.73

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 14/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Dukla Banska Bystrica 0Draw 0Žilina 2
    Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

    Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Dukla Banska Bystrica have lost 6 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Dukla Banska Bystrica
    Žilina
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Dukla Banska Bystrica (0–9)
    Žilina (6–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Dukla Banska Bystrica
    Nicolas Sikula: 67 passningar, xT 0.23SikulaMikuláš Bakaľa: 66 passningar, xT 0.08BakaľaJakub Trefil: 62 passningar, xT 0.02TrefilLubomir Willweber: 58 passningar, xT 0.06WillweberRegő Szánthó: 48 passningar, xT 0.21SzánthóKazeem Bolaji Soliu: 47 passningar, xT 0.05SoliuRóbert Polievka: 46 passningar, xT 0.01PolievkaTibor Slebodnik: 45 passningar, xT 0.22SlebodnikAlabi Toheeb Adewale: 36 passningar, xT 0.12AdewaleJakub Povazanec: 32 passningar, xT 0.06PovazanecDavid Richtarech: 29 passningar, xT 0.02Richtarech
    Žilina
    Tobias Paliscak: 122 passningar, xT 0.2PaliscakAleksandre Narimanidze: 122 passningar, xT -0.04NarimanidzeFabian Bzdyl: 121 passningar, xT 0.14BzdylJan Minarik: 103 passningar, xT 0.68MinarikKristian Bari: 87 passningar, xT 0.81BariMarek Okál: 84 passningar, xT 0.07OkálTimotej Hranica: 61 passningar, xT 0.2HranicaDavid Sipos: 59 passningar, xT 0.09SiposFilip Kasa: 53 passningar, xT 0.04KasaXavier Adang: 52 passningar, xT 0.09AdangSamuel Datko: 50 passningar, xT 0.04Datko
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Dukla Banska Bystrica
    Nicolas Sikula: 67 passningar, xT 0.23SikulaMikuláš Bakaľa: 66 passningar, xT 0.08BakaľaJakub Trefil: 62 passningar, xT 0.02TrefilLubomir Willweber: 58 passningar, xT 0.06WillweberRegő Szánthó: 48 passningar, xT 0.21SzánthóKazeem Bolaji Soliu: 47 passningar, xT 0.05SoliuRóbert Polievka: 46 passningar, xT 0.01PolievkaTibor Slebodnik: 45 passningar, xT 0.22SlebodnikAlabi Toheeb Adewale: 36 passningar, xT 0.12AdewaleJakub Povazanec: 32 passningar, xT 0.06PovazanecDavid Richtarech: 29 passningar, xT 0.02Richtarech
    Žilina
    Tobias Paliscak: 122 passningar, xT 0.2PaliscakAleksandre Narimanidze: 122 passningar, xT -0.04NarimanidzeFabian Bzdyl: 121 passningar, xT 0.14BzdylJan Minarik: 103 passningar, xT 0.68MinarikKristian Bari: 87 passningar, xT 0.81BariMarek Okál: 84 passningar, xT 0.07OkálTimotej Hranica: 61 passningar, xT 0.2HranicaDavid Sipos: 59 passningar, xT 0.09SiposFilip Kasa: 53 passningar, xT 0.04KasaXavier Adang: 52 passningar, xT 0.09AdangSamuel Datko: 50 passningar, xT 0.04Datko

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDukla Banska BystricaŽilina
    Points04
    xPoints2.13.7
    xG per match0.791.9
    xGA per match31.4
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.180.4
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.580.3
    Playing styleDukla Banska BystricaŽilina
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.340.56
    xT per match0.721.3
    xTA per match1.30.78
    Won balls, offensive half2123
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.20.33
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.150.31
    Entries into the box per match1213
    Entries into the box against1810
    Pass completion %0.70.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.75
    Passes per match222400
    Passes against per match480233
    Switches of play per match13.417.1
    Long balls per match2027
    Set piecesDukla Banska BystricaŽilina
    xG from free kicks0.080.09
    Corners per match5.57
    Corners against per match6.24.3
    xG per corner0.020.04
    xGA per corner against0.050.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.220.69
    OtherDukla Banska BystricaŽilina
    Throw-in control0.490.73
    The goalkeepersJakub Trefil (Dukla Banska Bystrica)David Sipos (Žilina)
    Saves129
    Save %57%69%
    xG prevented30%31%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Dukla Banska Bystrica
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Žilina
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Dukla Banska Bystrica vs Žilina according to our model?

    The model gives Žilina a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dukla Banska Bystrica 27%, draw 25%, Žilina 48%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.