Skalica vs Košice: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

Slovak Super League15 August 2026 18:00 CEST26°21 km/h

Läs på svenska

SkalicaLow block & direct

2–4

KošiceLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Košice (38%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.80 (+14 %)

1 · Skalica 32%X 30%38% Košice · 2

32%

30%

38%

Analysis: Skalica – Košice

Oscar Nilsson · 14 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

FC Kosice head into this clash with a slight edge in the betting markets, holding a 38% chance of victory compared to Skalica's 32%. Yet, the numbers paint a tapestry richer with nuance than a simple favourite-underdog narrative. Skalica may have only gathered 7 points to FC Kosice's 2, but their expected goals tells a far different story, with FC Kosice leading in xG per match at a robust 2.0 compared to Skalica's 1.1. This suggests that Kosice have been creating chances galore, even if their conversion hasn't matched their creativity.

Skalica, meanwhile, have managed to eke out results despite being expected to concede more, with a higher xGA of 2.0 versus FC Kosice's 1.8. Their head-to-head record, an even split with 2 wins apiece in six matches, does little to tip the scales decisively. It's clear Skalica have held their own against FC Kosice historically, but recent form through xG metrics suggests they might be riding their luck.

But here lies the betting intrigue: the model, while favouring FC Kosice, flags the draw as an enticing prospect. With odds of 3.79 on Pinnacle, there's a 14% edge on the draw, making it a value bet worth contemplating. Considering the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, combined with a decent 58% chance that both teams will find the net, the draw seems a compelling play.

Goals, or the lack thereof, may well define this match. Both sides sport a low defence and direct style, hinting at potential fireworks. Yet, the weather isn't mentioned, so any shift in the expected goal tally is pure conjecture. The over 2.5 goals market leans positively at 55%, but caution might be the watchword given the teams' respective defensive frailties. A 1-1 draw feels like the narrative that fits the numbers — a story of missed opportunities and hard-fought parity, offering substantial value for those willing to back it.

Skalica

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #11xP/match #9Points #2

Key players

Philip Obinna OnyedikaFxG 0.43 · xT 0.10
Peter Abraham Sandy GuinariFxG 0.08 · xT -0.03
Levan NonikashviliCAMxG 0.30 · xT 0.10

Košice

Form LWLDD

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #6xP/match #4Points #7

Key players

Roman CerepkaiLWxG 0.62 · xT 0.06
Matej MadlenakLWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.15
David GallovicCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05

Final score

2 – 4

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Skalica 32% · Draw 30% · Košice 38%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FC Kosice 2018Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,90fair 7,36-20 %

Hit

Matchresultat - MFK SkalicaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,60fair 11,61-26 %

Miss

Match prediction: Skalica – Košice

Predicted score matrix

Košice →

Skalica →

0–05.9%

0–18.6%

0–27.2%

0–33.9%

0–4+2.2%

1–06.8%

1–111.8%

1–29.2%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.6%

2–17.3%

2–25.9%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.8%

3–01.9%

3–13.1%

3–22.5%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-19%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,28–1,61

Both teams to score

58%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

224%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@2.16

Over 2,555%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Košice or draw (X2)70%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Košice or draw (X2)70%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Roman Čerepkai to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score58%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Roman Čerepkai to score26%
Dominik Kružliak to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@3.80PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@3.40BetssonEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Skalica	X	2 · Košice
Betsafe	3.00	EV+ 2% 3.40	2.10
Betsson	3.00	EV+ 2% 3.40	2.10
Nordicbet	3.00	EV+ 2% 3.40	2.10
Pinnacle	3.04	EV+ 14% 3.80	2.16

Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Košice win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 2.30 to 2.16 (−6%).

1+4 %

35 %25 %

2.91 → 3.04

X+10 %

31 %21 %

3.44 → 3.80

2-6 %

49 %39 %

2.30 → 2.16

Over 2,5-4 %

60 %50 %

1.77 → 1.70

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

6 matches

Skalica 2Draw 2Košice 2

Goals: 9–8 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Slovak Super League data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Skalica

Košice

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Skalica (6–3)

Košice (7–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Skalica

Košice

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Skalica

Košice

The teams in numbers

Performance	Skalica	Košice
Points	7	2
xPoints	3.5	3.1
xG per match	1.1	2
xGA per match	2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.59	0.46
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.4	0.58

Playing style	Skalica	Košice
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.38	0.69
xT per match	0.69	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	0.99
Won balls, offensive half	18	38
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.27
Entries into the box per match	9	16
Entries into the box against	18	4
Pass completion %	0.6	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.6	0.69
Passes per match	191	290
Passes against per match	336	336
Switches of play per match	11.7	9.8
Long balls per match	22	24

Set pieces	Skalica	Košice
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	5.2	7.4
Corners against per match	6.8	5.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.36
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.82

Other	Skalica	Košice
Throw-in control	0.7	0.69

The goalkeepers	Erik Riska (Skalica)	Maciej Kevin Dąbrowski (Košice)
Saves	13	6
Save %	87%	46%
xG prevented	57%	11%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Skalica

Fixtures, form & tips

Košice

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Skalica vs Košice according to our model?

The model gives Košice a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Skalica 32%, draw 30%, Košice 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.