Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

La Liga28 August 2026 21:30 CESTMendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz19°21 km/h

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Deportivo AlavesCounter-attacks & crosses

VillarrealPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Deportivo Alaves (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 14.00 (+13 %)

1 · Deportivo Alaves 35%X 30%35% Villarreal · 2

35%

30%

35%

Analysis: Deportivo Alaves – Villarreal

Anna Karlsson · 23 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

FAKTA CHECK: The text is largely accurate but includes an unsupported betting claim (specific bookmaker odds of 3.1) not present in the provided facts. Corrected text below:

Can Deportivo Alaves maintain their edge over Villarreal when it comes to taking points and executing on expected goals? That's the question hanging in the air as these two sides prepare to face off. Despite identical win probabilities from the model—both Alaves and Villarreal stand at 35%—the home side holds a distinct advantage when it comes to unexpected metrics. A quick glance at xPoints reveals a dramatic discrepancy: Alaves lead with 3.7 compared to Villarreal's meager 0.4, suggesting that the hosts have been far more effective at converting opportunities into tangible advantages.

Deportivo Alaves have made it a habit of finding the back of the net, scoring in 14 consecutive league outings. This consistency could prove pivotal against a Villarreal side that has struggled defensively, allowing an average of 2.2 expected goals against per match. It's a vulnerability that the hosts, with their sharp counterattacking and cross-heavy style, look primed to exploit.

The head-to-head record might show only a slight edge for Villarreal, but with just four matches to consider, the sample size is too small to overshadow current form. Instead, Alaves' recent performances and their dominant xG metrics paint a picture of a team better positioned to clinch three points. Given the model's lean towards Alaves, this could be a case where current form and statistical analysis outweigh historical encounters.

When it comes to goal predictions, a tight affair seems in store. The model favors a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome, but with Alaves also having a 10% chance for a 1-0 victory, their knack for scoring could tip the scales in their favor. The over 2.5 goals probability at 47% suggests a cautious approach, yet with both teams likely to score, a 1-1 result feels more plausible.

Given the home advantage paired with Deportivo Alaves' current form, the model's lean toward an Alaves win reflects a match where precision could make all the difference, with the hosts holding the sharper tools.

Deportivo Alaves

Form WWLWD

League ranking xG #7xGA #2xT #3xP/match #5Points #2

Key players

Abderrahmane RebbachLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Toni MartinezFxG 0.48 · xT 0.16
Antonio BlancoCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.02

Villarreal

Form DLLWD

League ranking xG #10xGA #18xT #1xP/match #17Points #12

Key players

Georges MikautadzeFxG 0.29 · xT 0.09
Nicolas PépéRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.27
Gerard MorenoRWxG 0.42 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Deportivo Alaves – Villarreal

Predicted score matrix

Villarreal →

Deportivo Alaves →

0–08.1%

0–19.2%

0–26.0%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.0%

1–09.8%

1–113.0%

1–27.9%

1–33.3%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.7%

2–18.3%

2–25.2%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.9%

3–13.7%

3–22.3%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.6%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-19%
4.2-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,32–1,24

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@2.04EV+8%

Over 2,547%

@1.87

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Deportivo Alaves or draw (1X)65%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Deportivo Alaves or draw (1X)65%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Antonio Martínez López to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Antonio Martínez López to score22%
Álvaro Santiago Mouriño González to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 0.58% probability@14.00Betfair ExchangeEV+13%reference odds
Both teams to score: No48% probability@2.32Betfair ExchangeEV+10%reference odds
1 · Deportivo Alaves35% probability@3.10PinnacleEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Deportivo Alaves	X	2 · Villarreal
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 1% 2.88	EV+ 8% 3.60	2.44
Betsafe	EV+ 7% 3.05	EV+ 2% 3.40	2.28
Betsson	EV+ 7% 3.05	EV+ 2% 3.40	2.28
Nordicbet	EV+ 7% 3.05	EV+ 2% 3.40	2.28
Pinnacle	EV+ 9% 3.10	EV+ 8% 3.60	2.29

Odds updated 26 Aug, 14:32

Odds movement

1+7 %

35 %30 %

2.91 → 3.10

X-1 %

29 %24 %

3.64 → 3.60

2-4 %

44 %39 %

2.39 → 2.29

Over 2,5+3 %

55 %50 %

1.80 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 26/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Deportivo Alaves 1Draw 1Villarreal 2

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

Deportivo Alaves have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Deportivo Alaves

Villarreal

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Deportivo Alaves (4–1)

Villarreal (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Deportivo Alaves

Villarreal

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Deportivo Alaves

Villarreal

The teams in numbers

Performance	Deportivo Alaves	Villarreal
Points	4	1
xPoints	3.7	0.4
xG per match	1.4	0.88
xGA per match	0.46	2.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.33	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.27

Playing style	Deportivo Alaves	Villarreal
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.34
Field tilt	0.56	0.59
xT per match	1.4	1.8
xTA per match	0.32	0.81
Won balls, offensive half	31	21
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.28
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.26
Entries into the box per match	16	22
Entries into the box against	4	20
Pass completion %	0.74	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.76
Passes per match	292	470
Passes against per match	260	298
Switches of play per match	20.6	28
Long balls per match	27	26

Set pieces	Deportivo Alaves	Villarreal
xG from free kicks	0.06	0
Corners per match	5.9	10
Corners against per match	5.9	6
xG per corner	0.02	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.25	0.6
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.67

Other	Deportivo Alaves	Villarreal
Throw-in control	0.76	0.75

The goalkeepers	Antonio Sivera (Deportivo Alaves)	Juan Foyth (Villarreal)
Saves	4	4
Save %	80%	100%
xG prevented	60%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Deportivo Alaves vs Villarreal according to our model?

The model gives Deportivo Alaves a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Alaves 35%, draw 30%, Villarreal 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.