Getafe vs Racing de Santander: Prediction & Odds (23 Aug 2026)

La Liga23 August 2026Coliseum, Getafe21°0,3 mm18 km/h

GetafeBalanced & physical

Racing de SantanderLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Getafe (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Racing de Santander @ 5.03 (+56 %)

Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

1 · Getafe 36%X 33%31% Racing de Santander · 2

36%

33%

31%

Analysis: Getafe – Racing de Santander

Erik Lindberg · 18 August 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Nought points on the board for Getafe CF so far, and that's telling. Despite the model slightly favouring them, Getafe's performance metrics paint a different picture. Their expected goals per match stands at a meager 0.36 compared to Real Racing Club's impressive 2.2. This stark difference suggests that although Getafe CF might be pegged as a marginal favourite by the model, they have a mountain to climb if they are to penetrate Racing's well-drilled defence.

Real Racing Club's low defensive setup, paired with their direct play, has served them well, conceding only 0.89 expected goals against per match. In contrast, Getafe's defensive lapses are reflected in their 1.6 xGA per match, indicating vulnerabilities Racing will look to exploit. While Getafe might be physical, Racing’s discipline and efficiency have been key to their superior points and xPoints tally so far.

The small head-to-head sample size between these teams doesn’t provide much to chew on, so it’s the form book and expected goals that steal the spotlight. The model’s most likely scoreline of 1-1 is unsurprising given the dynamics, but a 1-0 victory for Getafe CF, while possible, appears optimistic against the backdrop of current data. The low 36% probability for over 2.5 goals also suggests a tighter affair, with rain or wind potentially dampening attacking opportunities further.

Real Racing Club offers an intriguing betting angle despite being the slight underdog. With their odds at 5.03 on Pinnacle providing a 56% edge, there's a tantalising value bet in backing them away from home. Lower, yet still attractive odds with Betsafe and Betsson at 4.1 also suggest value, tipping the scales in Racing's favour as they aim to capitalise on Getafe’s uncertain footing.

Getafe

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #10xP/match #8Points #10

Key players

Ramon TerratsCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.01
Kiko FemeniaRWBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Zaid RomeroCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08

Racing de Santander

Form D

League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #4xP/match #2Points #4

Match prediction: Getafe – Racing de Santander

Predicted score matrix

Racing de Santander →

Getafe →

0–012.4%

0–111.5%

0–25.9%

0–32.0%

0–4+0.6%

1–013.1%

1–113.8%

1–26.7%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–07.6%

2–17.6%

2–23.8%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.4%

3–02.9%

3–12.8%

3–21.4%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.0%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.1-013%
3.0-012%
4.0-112%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,13–0,99

Both teams to score

43%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

012%

125%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,564%

@1.45

Over 2,536%

@2.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Getafe or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Getafe or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals64%
Martín Adrián Satriano Costa to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score43%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Asier Villalibre Molina to score28%
Pablo Ramón Parra to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Racing de Santander31% probability@5.03PinnacleEV+56%reference odds
2 · Racing de Santander31% probability@3.95BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
2 · Racing de Santander31% probability@3.95BetssonEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Getafe	X	2 · Racing de Santander
Betsafe	2.18	2.92	EV+ 23% 3.95
Betsson	2.18	2.92	EV+ 23% 3.95
Nordicbet	2.18	2.92	EV+ 23% 3.95
Pinnacle	1.90	3.01	EV+ 56% 5.03

Odds updated 19 Aug, 10:36

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Getafe

Racing de Santander

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Getafe (0–3)

Racing de Santander (2–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Getafe

Racing de Santander

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Getafe

Racing de Santander

The teams in numbers

Performance	Getafe	Racing de Santander
Points	0	1
xPoints	0.5	2.5
xG per match	0.36	2.2
xGA per match	1.6	0.89
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.03	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.5	0.25

Playing style	Getafe	Racing de Santander
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.5	0.41
xT per match	0.19	0.82
xTA per match	1.4	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	24	29
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.26
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.18
Entries into the box per match	4	20
Entries into the box against	11	22
Pass completion %	0.71	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.69
Passes per match	264	302
Passes against per match	309	476
Switches of play per match	16.9	9.1
Long balls per match	33	19

Set pieces	Getafe	Racing de Santander
xG from free kicks	0.2	0
Corners per match	3	6.1
Corners against per match	5	10.1
xG per corner	0.01	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.8	0.4

Other	Getafe	Racing de Santander
Throw-in control	0.7	0.56

The goalkeepers	David Soria (Getafe)	Julen Agirrezabala (Racing de Santander)
Saves	5	5
Save %	63%	71%
xG prevented	43%	87%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Getafe vs Racing de Santander according to our model?

The model gives Getafe a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Getafe 36%, draw 33%, Racing de Santander 31%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 36% and under at 64%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.