La LigaLa Rosaleda, Málaga27°16 km/h

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    MalagaMalaga
    vs
    Deportivo La CoruñaDeportivo La CoruñaLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Malaga (41%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 11.00 (+37 %)
    Limited data — The model has thin or uncertain data for this match — the forecast may be unreliable and the match is excluded from our value lists.

    Malaga – Deportivo La Coruña · La Liga

    1 · Malaga 41%X 29%30% Deportivo La Coruña · 2

    Analysis: Malaga – Deportivo La Coruña

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    A 41% win probability for Malaga sets the stage for a tight La Liga clash against Deportivo La Coruña. The model tips the hosts, pointing to a slight edge in form. With expected goals of 1.37 for Malaga and 1.24 for the visitors, this matchup appears finely balanced. The most likely outcome remains a 1-1 draw at 13%, but Malaga's 1-0 win at 10% cannot be ignored, hinting at a possible narrow victory for the home side.

    The expected goals figure suggests a match teetering on the edge of over 2.5 goals, yet the model places the probability of a high-scoring game just shy of 50%. Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a decent chance of each side finding the net. While a flood of goals isn't anticipated, the over 4.5 goals market glimmers with value at odds of 11.0, with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offering a substantial 37% edge according to the model's assessment.

    With the model leaning towards Malaga and a predicted low-scoring affair, a 1-0 result in favor of the hosts seems plausible. However, for those hunting value, the over 4.5 goals market offers a tempting prospect to capitalize on an unexpected goal eruption.

    MalagaMalaga
    Deportivo La CoruñaDeportivo La Coruña
    Form D
    League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #9xP/match #6Points #7

    Match prediction: Malaga – Deportivo La Coruña

    Predicted score matrix

    Deportivo La Coruña →
    Malaga →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.7%
    0–18.7%
    0–25.6%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–09.7%
    1–112.8%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.2%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–18.6%
    2–25.3%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+0.9%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–13.9%
    3–22.4%
    3–31.0%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–01.5%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.0-19%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,37–1,24
    Both teams to score
    53%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,551%
    @1.51
    Over 2,549%
    @2.61EV+27%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Malaga or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals73%

    Combined probability

    49%

    Fair odds

    2.05

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Malaga or draw (1X)67%
    • Under 2.5 goals51%
    • Carlos Ruiz Rubio to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score53%
    • Over 2.5 goals49%
    • Carlos Ruiz Rubio to score28%
    • Lucas Dominique Noubi Ngnokam to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.512% probability@11.00BetsafeEV+37%reference odds
    • Over 4.512% probability@11.00BetssonEV+37%reference odds
    • Over 4.512% probability@11.00NordicbetEV+37%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · MalagaX2 · Deportivo La Coruña
    Betsafe
    EV+ 9%
    2.65    		3.002.85
    Betsson
    EV+ 9%
    2.65    		3.002.85
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 9%
    2.65    		3.002.85

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 21:36

    Odds movement

    1+3 %
    39 %34 %

    2.58 → 2.65

    X0 %
    34 %29 %

    3.00 → 3.00

    2-4 %
    35 %30 %

    2.98 → 2.85

    Over 2,50 %
    39 %34 %

    2.61 → 2.61

    Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 16/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Deportivo La Coruña
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Deportivo La Coruña (1–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Deportivo La Coruña
    Lorenzo Amatucci: 51 passningar, xT 0.01AmatucciLucas Noubi: 43 passningar, xT 0.06NoubiXimo Navarro: 41 passningar, xT 0.01NavarroMario Soriano Carreño: 36 passningar, xT 0.01CarreñoGiacomo Quagliata: 34 passningar, xT 0.04QuagliataBright Ede: 32 passningar, xT 0.01EdeLeo Roman: 26 passningar, xT 0RomanDiego Villares: 26 passningar, xT 0.03VillaresAdrià Altimira: 17 passningar, xT 0.08AltimiraPierre-Emerick Emiliano François Aubameyang: 11 passningar, xT 0.02AubameyangBil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack: 7 passningar, xT -0.02Tonfack
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Deportivo La Coruña
    Lorenzo Amatucci: 51 passningar, xT 0.01AmatucciLucas Noubi: 43 passningar, xT 0.06NoubiXimo Navarro: 41 passningar, xT 0.01NavarroMario Soriano Carreño: 36 passningar, xT 0.01CarreñoGiacomo Quagliata: 34 passningar, xT 0.04QuagliataBright Ede: 32 passningar, xT 0.01EdeLeo Roman: 26 passningar, xT 0RomanDiego Villares: 26 passningar, xT 0.03VillaresAdrià Altimira: 17 passningar, xT 0.08AltimiraPierre-Emerick Emiliano François Aubameyang: 11 passningar, xT 0.02AubameyangBil Dornol Nsongo Tonfack: 7 passningar, xT -0.02Tonfack
    The goalkeepersMalagaLeo Roman (Deportivo La Coruña)
    Saves–5
    Save %–83%
    xG prevented–93%
    Claims–0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruña according to our model?

    The model gives Malaga a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Malaga 41%, draw 29%, Deportivo La Coruña 30%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.