Segunda División23°26 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    CeutaCeutaLow block & direct
    vs
    Las PalmasLas PalmasPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Las Palmas (48%)

    Ceuta – Las Palmas · Segunda División

    1 · Ceuta 26%X 26%48% Las Palmas · 2

    Analysis: Ceuta – Las Palmas

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    48% is the magic number here. It's the model's probability for UD Las Palmas to win away at AD Ceuta FC, pegged against enticing odds of 2.18 from Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. This isn't just a gut feeling; it's a calculated opportunity with a 5% edge, which should catch the eye of anyone with a betting brain. But let's delve a bit deeper into what these numbers are whispering about this matchup.

    UD Las Palmas seem to be in the driver's seat, boasting a style built on possession control, which contrasts sharply with AD Ceuta FC’s direct approach. The model leans heavily towards Las Palmas, not just because of their superior possession play but also their defensive solidity. They've got an expected goals against (xGA) of just 0.98 per match, significantly lower than AD Ceuta's rather porous 2.9. It's not just the form; it's the structure.

    AD Ceuta FC's home fortress isn't impregnable, but they win 57% of their matches here — history is on their side, even if recent form isn't. Nevertheless, the sample size of two head-to-head clashes since 2023 is too small to weigh heavily, especially when those games resulted in a draw and a loss for Ceuta. The expected goals (xG) speak volumes: 1.57 for Las Palmas versus a paltry 1.00 for Ceuta, indicating that Las Palmas could very well find the net more than once.

    Given the expected goals and playing styles, a 0-1 or 0-2 scoreline in favor of UD Las Palmas feels likely. The under 2.5 goals marker looks promising at 47% — the numbers suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. The odds are juicy for those banking on Las Palmas to capitalize on their stronger metrics. Here, the sharpest angle is how value and probability align for an away win, making it a bet that should be on every punter's radar.

    CeutaCeuta
    Form DLWWD
    League ranking xG #19xGA #22xT #19xP/match #21Points #7
    Key players
    • Kuki ZalazarFxG 0.15 · xT 0.09
    • Marcos FernandezFxG 0.38 · xT 0.02
    • Ruben DiezCAMxG 0.20 · xT 0.17
    Las PalmasLas Palmas
    Form DWLDW
    League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #7xP/match #15Points #5
    Key players
    • Manu FusterLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.13
    • Enzo Lilian Marin LoiodiceCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
    • Jesé Rodríguez RuizFxG 0.31 · xT 0.06

    Match prediction: Ceuta – Las Palmas

    Predicted score matrix

    Las Palmas →
    Ceuta →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.0%
    0–111.7%
    0–29.5%
    0–35.0%
    0–4+2.8%
    1
    1–07.3%
    1–112.3%
    1–29.4%
    1–35.0%
    1–4+2.8%
    2
    2–03.8%
    2–16.0%
    2–24.7%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–01.3%
    3–12.0%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.8%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–00.4%
    4+–10.6%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.3%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.0-29%
    4. 4.1-29%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,00–1,57
    Both teams to score
    50%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,6
    Under 2,553%
    @1.72
    Over 2,547%
    @1.98

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Las Palmas to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals74%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Las Palmas to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals53%
    • Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score50%
    • Over 2.5 goals47%
    • Jesé Rodríguez Ruiz to score25%
    • Yann Yves Laurent Bodiger to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Las Palmas48% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
    • 2 · Las Palmas48% probability@2.25BetssonEV+8%reference odds
    • 2 · Las Palmas48% probability@2.25NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · CeutaX2 · Las Palmas
    Betsafe3.103.10
    EV+ 8%
    2.25
    Betsson3.103.10
    EV+ 8%
    2.25
    Nordicbet3.103.10
    EV+ 8%
    2.25

    Odds updated 18 Aug, 13:36

    Odds movement

    1-5 %
    31 %26 %

    3.25 → 3.10

    X0 %
    32 %27 %

    3.10 → 3.10

    2+3 %
    44 %39 %

    2.18 → 2.25

    Over 2,50 %
    49 %44 %

    1.98 → 1.98

    Betsson · 3 recorded price levels · 18/08/2026 → 18/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Ceuta 0Draw 1Las Palmas 1
    Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • AD Ceuta FC win 57% of their home matches all-time (21 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ceuta
    Las Palmas
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ceuta (1–5)
    Las Palmas (2–1)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ceuta
    Marino Illescas: 27 passningar, xT 0.02IllescasGuillermo Vallejo: 25 passningar, xT 0.05VallejoDaniel Mas Soria: 24 passningar, xT 0.01SoriaJose Matos: 22 passningar, xT 0.03MatosYann Yves Laurent Bodiger: 19 passningar, xT 0.01BodigerCarlos Hernandez: 18 passningar, xT 0.01HernandezAnuar Mohamed Tuhami: 15 passningar, xT 0.01TuhamiKuki Zalazar: 14 passningar, xT 0.01ZalazarOmar Sadik: 14 passningar, xT 0.04SadikAle Melendez: 10 passningar, xT -0.01MelendezChidiebere Gabriel Okoro: 10 passningar, xT -0.01Okoro
    Las Palmas
    Kirian Rodriguez: 91 passningar, xT 0.13RodriguezJuanma Herzog: 61 passningar, xT 0.09HerzogAlex Suarez: 54 passningar, xT 0.04SuarezJosé Antonio Caro Díaz: 50 passningar, xT 0.07DíazSergio Ruiz: 40 passningar, xT 0.11RuizValentín Alejandro Pezzolesi: 38 passningar, xT -0.02PezzolesiTaisei Miyashiro: 36 passningar, xT 0.05MiyashiroManu Fuster: 34 passningar, xT 0.21FusterGiovanni Bonfanti: 33 passningar, xT 0.1BonfantiEnzo Lilian Marin Loiodice: 22 passningar, xT 0.01LoiodiceJesé Rodríguez Ruiz: 14 passningar, xT 0.08Ruiz
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ceuta
    Marino Illescas: 27 passningar, xT 0.02IllescasGuillermo Vallejo: 25 passningar, xT 0.05VallejoDaniel Mas Soria: 24 passningar, xT 0.01SoriaJose Matos: 22 passningar, xT 0.03MatosYann Yves Laurent Bodiger: 19 passningar, xT 0.01BodigerCarlos Hernandez: 18 passningar, xT 0.01HernandezAnuar Mohamed Tuhami: 15 passningar, xT 0.01TuhamiKuki Zalazar: 14 passningar, xT 0.01ZalazarOmar Sadik: 14 passningar, xT 0.04SadikAle Melendez: 10 passningar, xT -0.01MelendezChidiebere Gabriel Okoro: 10 passningar, xT -0.01Okoro
    Las Palmas
    Kirian Rodriguez: 91 passningar, xT 0.13RodriguezJuanma Herzog: 61 passningar, xT 0.09HerzogAlex Suarez: 54 passningar, xT 0.04SuarezJosé Antonio Caro Díaz: 50 passningar, xT 0.07DíazSergio Ruiz: 40 passningar, xT 0.11RuizValentín Alejandro Pezzolesi: 38 passningar, xT -0.02PezzolesiTaisei Miyashiro: 36 passningar, xT 0.05MiyashiroManu Fuster: 34 passningar, xT 0.21FusterGiovanni Bonfanti: 33 passningar, xT 0.1BonfantiEnzo Lilian Marin Loiodice: 22 passningar, xT 0.01LoiodiceJesé Rodríguez Ruiz: 14 passningar, xT 0.08Ruiz

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCeutaLas Palmas
    Points13
    xPoints0.40.9
    xG per match0.440.9
    xGA per match2.90.98
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.010.17
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.740.06
    Playing styleCeutaLas Palmas
    Build-up efficiency0.290.27
    Field tilt0.220.54
    xT per match0.381.2
    xTA per match1.60.8
    Won balls, offensive half2821
    Pressing intensity0.250.23
    Pressing efficiency0.220.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.10.29
    Entries into the box per match1016
    Entries into the box against209
    Pass completion %0.670.83
    Pass completion % under pressure0.540.8
    Passes per match232513
    Passes against per match465231
    Switches of play per match13.526.1
    Long balls per match2832
    Set piecesCeutaLas Palmas
    xG from free kicks00.08
    Corners per match2.13
    Corners against per match2.16
    xG per corner0.010
    xGA per corner against0.080.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.33
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.5
    OtherCeutaLas Palmas
    Throw-in control0.480.74
    The goalkeepersGuillermo Vallejo (Ceuta)José Antonio Caro Díaz (Las Palmas)
    Saves63
    Save %55%75%
    xG prevented45%46%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ceuta vs Las Palmas according to our model?

    The model gives Las Palmas a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ceuta 26%, draw 26%, Las Palmas 48%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    Odds on the move
    CórdobaCórdoba
    vs
    GironaGirona
    1 44%X 24%2 32%
    Odds on the move
    Real OviedoReal Oviedo
    vs
    LeganésLeganés
    1 44%X 28%2 29%
    Odds on the move
    AlbaceteAlbacete
    vs
    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad B
    1 61%X 23%2 16%

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.