Segunda División: Predictions, Odds & Tips

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    Model-based predictions for the Segunda División — Spain's second tier: 22 teams, 42 rounds and one of Europe's tightest leagues, analysed by the same match model that powers PlaymakerAI. Ahead of every round the model computes 1X2 probabilities, a full score matrix, expected goals and over/under lines, built from hundreds of data points per team: strength, form, playing style, squad and weather.

    The predictions are held against live odds from multiple bookmakers, with positive expected value (EV+) flagged where the model’s probability beats the implied odds. Played matches are graded openly — hit or miss — and everything updates continuously until kickoff.

    Upcoming matches

    Soft draw
    EldenseEldense
    vs
    Real OviedoReal Oviedo
    1 33%X 33%2 34%
    SabadellSabadell
    vs
    FC AndorraFC Andorra
    1 31%X 30%2 39%
    Soft drawOdds on the move
    AlbaceteAlbacete
    vs
    EibarEibar
    1 36%X 28%2 36%
    CádizCádiz
    vs
    LeganésLeganés
    1 40%X 29%2 32%
    AlmeríaAlmería
    vs
    BurgosBurgos
    1 47%X 28%2 24%
    Las PalmasLas Palmas
    vs
    Real ValladolidReal Valladolid
    1 56%X 26%2 19%
    Sporting GijónSporting Gijón
    vs
    Celta FortunaCelta Fortuna
    1 58%X 24%2 18%
    CastellonCastellon
    vs
    CeutaCeuta
    1 77%X 16%2 8%
    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad B
    vs
    GranadaGranada
    1 31%X 29%2 40%
    Soft draw
    GironaGirona
    vs
    MallorcaMallorca
    1 35%X 30%2 35%
    CórdobaCórdoba
    vs
    CD TenerifeCD Tenerife
    1 48%X 29%2 23%

    League table2026/27

    PosTeamPSW–D–LGF–GAxPxGxGAxGDFTStyle
    1Castellon1976–1–014–213,414,95,2+9,773 %Possession control
    2Eibar1876–0–115–612,27,86,4+1,424 %Low block & direct
    3Almería1575–0–211–49,99,48,6+0,843 %Balanced & physical
    4Burgos1474–2–111–710,27,97,4+0,540 %Possession control
    5Girona1374–1–214–88,99,111,3−2,245 %Possession control
    6Mallorca1374–1–28–39,68,16,6+1,560 %Possession & high press
    7Sabadell1273–3–18–613,110,26,2+4,051 %Possession control
    8Real Oviedo1173–2–27–49,97,96,7+1,253 %Possession control
    9CD Tenerife1173–2–28–910,76,26,8−0,645 %Possession control
    10Leganés1173–2–26–78,87,510,8−3,332 %Balanced & physical
    11Las Palmas1073–1–310–118,56,47,6−1,264 %Possession control
    12Sporting Gijón1073–1–35–69,16,16,5−0,451 %Possession control
    13Granada872–2–310–119,59,48,0+1,455 %Possession control
    14Real Sociedad B872–2–39–109,06,610,1−3,529 %Low block & direct
    15Celta Fortuna872–2–38–116,96,610,4−3,850 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    16Real Valladolid872–2–36–99,87,86,9+0,953 %Balanced & physical
    17FC Andorra672–0–512–159,110,08,0+2,076 %Possession & high press
    18Córdoba672–0–510–169,510,49,2+1,262 %Possession control
    19Eldense571–2–44–97,85,68,0−2,458 %Possession control
    20Cádiz470–4–37–108,97,07,9−0,946 %Balanced & physical
    21Ceuta471–1–56–177,27,110,4−3,347 %Counter-attacks & crosses
    22Albacete170–1–64–128,48,011,0−3,048 %Possession & high press

    Latest articles

    All articles
    Ragnar's tip: strike when the autumn leaves fall

    2026-10-01 · 3 min

    Ragnar's tip: strike when the autumn leaves fall

    Seven pool games at different betting operators are built on the same underlying analysis, with several matches recurring in more than one game – including Cádiz–Leganés, which is singled out as the week's strongest favorite match. Unlike previous rounds, this week lacks some clear-cut bankers to rely on.

    League Pulse w.40: Segunda Division, 2026

    2026-09-28 · 1 min

    League Pulse w.40: Segunda Division, 2026

    After seven rounds in Segunda División, the underlying numbers reveal that the table is partly misleading about the situation: Eibar and Almería are heavily overperforming with 15 points against an expected points total of only 9.9, while league leaders Castellon with 16 points are backed up by real form (11.8 xP). At the bottom, Albacete are struggling with just one point, which underscores the large gaps between actual position and underlying performance statistics in the league right now.

    This week's upsets with value 26/9

    2026-09-26 · 4 min

    This week's upsets with value 26/9

    The article presents five weekend matches – including Rosengård–Hässleholm in Ettan and De Graafschap–Den Bosch in Eerste Divisie – where underlying statistics such as xG, buildup share and field tilt suggest more even matches than the odds reflect. By analyzing the teams' playing styles, such as pressing intensity and counter-attacking

    Played matches

    Prediction track record
    LeganésLeganés
    0–2
    CastellonCastellon
    1 16%X 22%2 62%
    The model called the outcome
    BurgosBurgos
    1–0
    EldenseEldense
    1 49%X 30%2 21%
    The model called the outcome
    Real OviedoReal Oviedo
    2–0
    Sporting GijónSporting Gijón
    1 41%X 35%2 24%
    The model called the outcome
    MallorcaMallorca
    0–1
    AlmeríaAlmería
    1 56%X 25%2 19%
    The model missed the outcome
    Real ValladolidReal Valladolid
    3–1
    CórdobaCórdoba
    1 33%X 31%2 37%
    The model missed the outcome
    EibarEibar
    3–2
    Las PalmasLas Palmas
    1 41%X 30%2 29%
    The model called the outcome
    CeutaCeuta
    3–1
    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad B
    1 44%X 25%2 31%
    The model called the outcome
    GranadaGranada
    2–3
    FC AndorraFC Andorra
    1 30%X 30%2 40%
    The model called the outcome
    CD TenerifeCD Tenerife
    1–1
    CádizCádiz
    1 46%X 33%2 21%
    The model missed the outcome
    Celta FortunaCelta Fortuna
    1–1
    SabadellSabadell
    1 42%X 26%2 32%
    The model missed the outcome
    GironaGirona
    2–0
    AlbaceteAlbacete
    1 50%X 27%2 23%
    The model called the outcome
    LeganésLeganés
    3–2
    GranadaGranada
    1 40%X 30%2 30%
    The model called the outcome

    How the predictions work

    Every prediction comes from PlaymakerAI's match model — the same data platform professional clubs use for scouting and match analysis. The model is trained on event data from hundreds of thousands of matches and weighs over 200 factors per team: strength ratings, current form, playing style, squad player profiles, fixture congestion, travel and even matchday weather.

    For each fixture the model produces a full goal distribution. From it we derive the 1X2 probabilities, the score matrix, expected goals, over/under lines and both-teams-to-score. Predictions are frozen before kickoff and never changed afterwards — once a match finishes we grade it openly, hit or miss.

    Odds are collected continuously from several bookmakers. When the model's probability for an outcome exceeds what the odds imply, we flag it as value (EV+). That is the model's assessment, not a guarantee: even positive-EV bets lose often. Gamble responsibly.

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    Segunda División FAQ

    Where do I find Segunda División predictions?

    Right here: every match in Spain's Segunda División has its own analysis with 1X2 probabilities, most likely scoreline, over/under and value against current odds. Pick a match from the upcoming list — predictions are refreshed before every round and graded openly afterwards.

    How are the Segunda División predictions made?

    Each match is replayed thousands of times in the model using hundreds of metrics per team — expected goals, pressing, expected threat, field tilt, form and squad. The output is a probability for every scoreline, which is then compared with bookmaker odds to find value.

    What is the xP table?

    xP means expected points: how many points each team should have taken given the quality of chances created and conceded. The gap between xP and the real table shows which Spain's Segunda División teams are over- and underrated right now.

    Which teams play in Segunda División 2026/27?

    Segunda División 2026/27 has 22 teams: Castellon, Eibar, Almería, Burgos, Girona, Mallorca, Sabadell, Real Oviedo, CD Tenerife, Leganés, Las Palmas, Sporting Gijón, Granada, Real Sociedad B, Celta Fortuna, Real Valladolid, FC Andorra, Córdoba, Eldense, Cádiz, Ceuta, Albacete.

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.