Leganés vs Castellon Prediction: Away win 62% (28 Sept 2026)

Segunda División28 September 202621°1,0 mm14 km/h

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LeganésBalanced & physical

CastellonPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Castellon (62%)

1 · Leganés 16%X 22%62% Castellon · 2

16%

22%

62%

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Analysis: Leganés – Castellon

Sofia Andersson · 25 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Castellon's dominance is written in the numbers, with a commanding 62% probability of winning against Leganés. The expected goals disparity, 1.61 for the visitors versus a mere 0.74 for the hosts, paints a clear picture of Castellon's attacking superiority. This is further underlined by Castellon's recent form, having secured four consecutive victories, amplifying their confidence and momentum into this matchup. The hosts, conversely, struggle both in results and xGoals metrics, emphasizing a tough evening ahead for them.

Leganés' balanced and physical approach contrasts sharply with Castellon's possession-based style, which has proven effective both in head-to-head encounters and recent fixtures. With only two matches played between these teams since 2023, the head-to-head sample is limited, yet it consistently favors Castellon. The model's lean towards a low-scoring game, with a 42% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, suggests a cautious battle, likely culminating in a 0-1 or 0-2 scoreline.

For bettors, the real edge lies with Castellon at odds of 2.32, highlighted as significant value by the model. Available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, this wager holds a 44% edge. In a matchup already skewed towards Castellon, these odds are enticing for anyone seeking value.

Leganés

Form WWDLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #19xT #11xP/match #16Points #7

Key players

Marvelous Antolín GarzónLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
Naim GarciaRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
Alejandro San Cristóbal SánchezLWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.07

Castellon

Form DWWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1

Key players

Francisco Castillo ViñoloFxG 0.25 · xT 0.31
Ousmane CamaraFxG 0.64 · xT 0.02
Alberto JimenezCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Leganés – Castellon

Predicted score matrix

Castellon →

Leganés →

0–09.9%

0–115.1%

0–212.4%

0–36.7%

0–4+3.9%

1–06.7%

1–111.7%

1–29.1%

1–34.9%

1–4+2.8%

2–02.6%

2–14.2%

2–23.4%

2–31.8%

2–4+1.0%

3–00.6%

3–11.0%

3–20.8%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.1%

4+–10.2%

4+–20.2%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-115%
2.0-212%
3.1-112%
4.0-010%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

0,74–1,61

Both teams to score

42%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.96EV+8%

Over 2,542%

@1.91

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Castellon to win62%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Castellon to win62%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Pablo Santiago López to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score42%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Pablo Santiago López to score36%
Alberto Jiménez Benítez to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Castellon62% probability@2.28PinnacleEV+42%reference odds
2 · Castellon62% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
2 · Castellon62% probability@2.25BetssonEV+40%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leganés	X	2 · Castellon
Betsafe	3.00	3.20	EV+ 40% 2.25
Betsson	3.00	3.20	EV+ 40% 2.25
LeoVegas	3.00	3.25	EV+ 40% 2.25
Nordicbet	3.00	3.20	EV+ 40% 2.25
Pinnacle	3.30	3.38	EV+ 42% 2.28

Odds updated 28 Sept, 12:35

Odds movement

1-1 %

33 %28 %

3.33 → 3.30

X+4 %

31 %26 %

3.26 → 3.38

2+2 %

43 %38 %

2.24 → 2.28

Over 2,5+1 %

53 %48 %

1.89 → 1.91

Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 22/09/2026 → 28/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Leganés 0Draw 0Castellon 2

Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

Castellon come into this round on 4 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leganés

Castellon

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leganés (6–5)

Castellon (12–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leganés

Castellon

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leganés

Castellon

The teams in numbers

Performance	Leganés	Castellon
Points	11	16
xPoints	7.5	11.8
xG per match	1	2.1
xGA per match	1.4	0.62
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.25	0.38
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.18

Playing style	Leganés	Castellon
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.31	0.75
xT per match	0.82	1.7
xTA per match	1.4	0.57
Won balls, offensive half	17	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.31
Entries into the box per match	8	18
Entries into the box against	13	9
Pass completion %	0.76	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.77
Passes per match	324	506
Passes against per match	429	271
Switches of play per match	19.7	22.4
Long balls per match	27	28

Set pieces	Leganés	Castellon
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.02
Corners per match	2.7	5.7
Corners against per match	6.1	3.8
xG per corner	0.02	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.35
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.65

Other	Leganés	Castellon
Throw-in control	0.68	0.72

The goalkeepers	Luca Zinedine Zidane Fernández (Leganés)	Romain Matthys (Castellon)
Saves	17	14
Save %	85%	88%
xG prevented	48%	78%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Leganés

Fixtures, form & tips

Castellon

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leganés vs Castellon according to our model?

The model gives Castellon a 62% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leganés 16%, draw 22%, Castellon 62%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 15% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 42% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.