Granada vs FC Andorra: Prediction & Odds (26 Sept 2026)

Segunda División26 September 202624°18 km/h

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GranadaPossession control

FC AndorraPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · FC Andorra (40%)

1 · Granada 30%X 30%40% FC Andorra · 2

30%

40%

Analysis: Granada – FC Andorra

Erik Lindberg · 19 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The text contains an unsupported claim: specific bookmaker odds ("odds of 3.33 offered by Bet365") are not part of the given facts and appear fabricated.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Granada's clash with FC Andorra promises to be a tense tactical battle shaped by possession strategies. Both teams lean heavily on controlling the ball, but Andorra's high press might prove disruptive. Despite winning only three points so far, Andorra's style could challenge the hosts' defensive setup. The model favors the visitors, giving them a 40% chance to secure the win, compared to Granada's 30%.

Recent form, however, suggests caution. Andorra is on a four-game losing streak, which chips away at confidence, though their underlying metrics remain solid. Their xG per match stands at an impressive 1.7, overshadowing Granada's 0.95. Yet, Granada's knack for securing points — eight compared to Andorra's three — indicates a resilience that could frustrate the visitors' high-press tactics.

The small head-to-head sample leans toward draws, with both past encounters ending level. This historical tendency meshes well with the most likely scoreline of 1-1, projected at 13%. While the chances of over 2.5 goals sit just under half at 48%, the real intrigue lies in whether both teams will find the net, which has a slightly higher probability of 53%.

For bettors seeking a sharper angle, the model's lean towards Andorra suggests potential value, despite their recent slump. Keep an eye on how Andorra's high press matches up against Granada's controlled possession — it's here that the game's balance could tip.

Granada

Form DWWLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #10xT #9xP/match #11Points #7

Key players

Pedro AlemanFxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
Owen Mira ChukwuemekaFxG 0.15 · xT 0.03
Sergio López GalacheRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.37

FC Andorra

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #2xGA #8xT #2xP/match #10Points #19

Key players

Efe AkmanCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.18
Thomas CarriqueRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
Marc BombardoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Granada – FC Andorra

Predicted score matrix

FC Andorra →

Granada →

0–08.0%

0–19.9%

0–26.9%

0–33.1%

0–4+1.4%

1–09.0%

1–113.0%

1–28.5%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.7%

2–17.7%

2–25.2%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.4%

3–13.2%

3–22.1%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,23–1,35

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.79

Over 2,548%

@2.04

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance FC Andorra or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance FC Andorra or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Jordi Cano Jiménez to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Jordi Cano Jiménez to score21%
Efe Akman to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · FC Andorra40% probability@3.34PinnacleEV+33%reference odds
2 · FC Andorra40% probability@3.10BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
2 · FC Andorra40% probability@3.10BetssonEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Granada	X	2 · FC Andorra
Betsafe	2.18	3.20	EV+ 23% 3.10
Betsson	2.18	3.20	EV+ 23% 3.10
Nordicbet	2.18	3.20	EV+ 23% 3.10
Pinnacle	2.26	3.20	EV+ 33% 3.34

Odds updated 21 Sept, 16:01

Odds movement

1+1 %

45 %40 %

2.24 → 2.26

X-2 %

32 %27 %

3.27 → 3.20

2+1 %

31 %26 %

3.31 → 3.34

Over 2,50 %

49 %44 %

2.03 → 2.04

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 21/09/2026 → 21/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Granada 0Draw 2FC Andorra 0

Goals: 1–1 (⌀ 1)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Andorra have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Granada

FC Andorra

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Granada (6–5)

FC Andorra (8–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Granada

FC Andorra

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Granada

FC Andorra

The teams in numbers

Performance	Granada	FC Andorra
Points	8	3
xPoints	6.7	7.1
xG per match	0.95	1.7
xGA per match	0.99	0.97
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.35

Playing style	Granada	FC Andorra
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.49	0.84
xT per match	0.81	1.4
xTA per match	0.77	0.63
Won balls, offensive half	23	30
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.19
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.4
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.39
Entries into the box per match	10	16
Entries into the box against	9	7
Pass completion %	0.74	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.77
Passes per match	305	503
Passes against per match	334	183
Switches of play per match	29.1	56.4
Long balls per match	42	50

Set pieces	Granada	FC Andorra
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	4.2	4.5
Corners against per match	3.2	2.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.5

Other	Granada	FC Andorra
Throw-in control	0.66	0.76

The goalkeepers	Raul Lizoain (Granada)	Pau López Sabata (FC Andorra)
Saves	16	8
Save %	76%	47%
xG prevented	44%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Granada

Fixtures, form & tips

FC Andorra

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Granada vs FC Andorra according to our model?

The model gives FC Andorra a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Granada 30%, draw 30%, FC Andorra 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.