Girona vs Albacete: Prediction & Odds (25 Sept 2026)

Segunda División25 September 202623°13 km/h

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GironaLow block & direct

AlbaceteLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Girona (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Albacete @ 5.70 (+32 %)

1 · Girona 50%X 27%23% Albacete · 2

50%

27%

23%

Analysis: Girona – Albacete

Oscar Nilsson · 18 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT INDEHOLDER FEJL. Korrigeret version:

Girona and Albacete's recent form and underlying numbers should be the focus for this matchup. Girona clearly leads the points table with 7, while Albacete is languishing with just a single point. This points difference suggests that the home side has been more effective in translating their performances into results.

The expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) provide further depth to this matchup. Girona has an xG of 1.2 per match, better than Albacete's 0.9, indicating a more potent attack. However, defensively, Albacete holds a slight edge, conceding 1.5 xGA compared to Girona's 1.6. Both teams play with a low defensive line and direct style, which often leads to fewer goals and tight contests. This style is reflected in the model's probabilities and expected goals, suggesting a match that may hinge on a moment of quality.

The most likely scoreline according to the model is 1-1, with a 12% probability, closely followed by a 1-0 victory to Girona at 11%. This aligns with the model's slight preference for the home team, underlined by a 50% win probability. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 52%, indicating a marginal lean towards a game with goals, but not decisively so. Both teams to score is pegged at the same percentage, further emphasizing the likelihood of a tightly contested affair with both sides finding the net.

For punters, the most enticing angle lies in the potential for a goal-filled match. While the model slightly favors Girona, the closely matched underlying numbers mean that a bet on over 2.5 goals at 52% could offer some value, especially if you find a bookmaker offering odds that outweigh this probability. Keep an eye out for value in the over 2.5 goals market if the odds are favorable enough.

Girona

Form DLWWL

League ranking xG #7xGA #21xT #6xP/match #16Points #13

Key players

Arnau MartinezRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Bryan GilFxG 0.35 · xT -0.01
Yáser AsprillaRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.27

Albacete

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #17xGA #20xT #18xP/match #18Points #21

Key players

Jose CorpasFxG 0.19 · xT 0.04
Victor San Bartolome PrietoFxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Fran GamezRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Girona – Albacete

Predicted score matrix

Albacete →

Girona →

0–06.8%

0–16.1%

0–23.2%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–010.9%

1–111.5%

1–25.6%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.8%

2–19.8%

2–24.9%

2–31.6%

2–4+0.5%

3–05.7%

3–15.7%

3–22.8%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.7%

4+–13.7%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-010%
4.2-110%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,74–1,00

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@2.30EV+11%

Over 2,552%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Girona to win50%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Girona to win50%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Abel Ruiz Ortega to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Abel Ruiz Ortega to score28%
Javier Villar del Fraile to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Albacete23% probability@5.70BetsafeEV+32%reference odds
2 · Albacete23% probability@5.70BetssonEV+32%reference odds
2 · Albacete23% probability@5.70NordicbetEV+32%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Girona	X	2 · Albacete
Betsafe	1.46	EV+ 15% 4.30	EV+ 32% 5.70
Betsson	1.46	EV+ 15% 4.30	EV+ 32% 5.70
Nordicbet	1.46	EV+ 15% 4.30	EV+ 32% 5.70
Pinnacle	1.51	EV+ 20% 4.50	EV+ 32% 5.68

Odds updated 21 Sept, 14:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Girona win since 20 September — the odds have shortened from 1.61 to 1.51 (−6%).

1-6 %

63 %58 %

1.61 → 1.51

X+6 %

24 %19 %

4.25 → 4.50

2+15 %

20 %15 %

4.93 → 5.68

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 21/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Girona

Albacete

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Girona (10–7)

Albacete (3–8)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Girona

Albacete

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Girona

Albacete

The teams in numbers

Performance	Girona	Albacete
Points	7	1
xPoints	6.1	5.8
xG per match	1.2	0.9
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.12	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.28	0.22

Playing style	Girona	Albacete
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.35
Field tilt	0.45	0.51
xT per match	1	0.66
xTA per match	1.3	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	24	31
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.23
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.79	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.68
Passes per match	389	334
Passes against per match	395	382
Switches of play per match	29.5	31.3
Long balls per match	37	35

Set pieces	Girona	Albacete
xG from free kicks	0.08	0
Corners per match	4	5.4
Corners against per match	3.6	5
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.1	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.39	0.62

Other	Girona	Albacete
Throw-in control	0.74	0.69

The goalkeepers	Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)	Diego Marino (Albacete)
Saves	18	15
Save %	72%	68%
xG prevented	37%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Girona

Fixtures, form & tips

Albacete

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Girona vs Albacete according to our model?

The model gives Girona a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Girona 50%, draw 27%, Albacete 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.