Segunda División22°15 km/h

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    CeutaCeutaPossession control
    vs
    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad BLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Ceuta (44%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.04 (+10 %)

    Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B · Segunda División

    1 · Ceuta 44%X 25%31% Real Sociedad B · 2

    Analysis: Ceuta – Real Sociedad B

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Ceuta is reeling from a five-match losing streak, yet the model gives them a 44% chance of victory against Real Sociedad B's 31%. This tension between form and prediction is intriguing. Despite their recent struggles, Ceuta's possession-led approach may find traction against the visitors' preference for low defence and direct attacks. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at 13%, with Ceuta's best chance being a narrow 1-0 win at 11%.

    Historically, the head-to-head record offers a small sample, with Ceuta unbeaten in two games since 2023. However, season metrics favour the visitors. Real Sociedad B outstrip the hosts in points, xPoints, and xG per match. Despite this, the model leans towards Ceuta, hinting they might just edge this encounter if they rediscover their early form.

    The over 2.5 goals market sits at 46%, suggesting a cautious stance on a high-scoring affair. Both teams to score is slightly more balanced at 51%. Given Ceuta's scoring struggles and the visitors' defensive approach, the under 2.5 goals market provides value. The model’s lean towards Ceuta, despite their poor streak, might entice bettors, with potential value in backing a narrow home win at odds that do not yet fully reflect their underlying potential.

    CeutaCeuta
    Form LLLLL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #22xT #15xP/match #22Points #22
    Key players
    • Kuki ZalazarFxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
    • Alejandro Camacho RamirezLWxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
    • Cedric Wilfried Teguia NoubiRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad B
    Form LWDDW
    League ranking xG #11xGA #19xT #12xP/match #15Points #10
    Key players
    • Gorka GorosabelFxG 0.22 · xT 0.03
    • Lander AstiazaranLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.07
    • Dani DiazFxG 0.13 · xT 0.35

    Match prediction: Ceuta – Real Sociedad B

    Predicted score matrix

    Real Sociedad B →
    Ceuta →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–18.7%
    0–25.1%
    0–31.9%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–010.8%
    1–113.0%
    1–27.1%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.0%
    2
    2–07.8%
    2–18.8%
    2–25.0%
    2–31.9%
    2–4+0.7%
    3
    3–03.6%
    3–14.1%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.9%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–11.9%
    4+–21.1%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.1-011%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,40–1,13
    Both teams to score
    51%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @2.04EV+6%
    Over 2,546%
    @1.78

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Ceuta or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.91

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Ceuta or draw (1X)70%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Jordi Escobar Fernandez to score20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score51%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Daniel Díaz Gándara to score22%
    • Alejandro Meléndez Ruiz to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.554% probability@2.04PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
    • Under 2.554% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
    • Under 2.554% probability@1.98BetssonEV+6%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · CeutaX2 · Real Sociedad B
    Betsafe2.203.353.00
    Betsson2.203.353.00
    Nordicbet2.203.353.00
    Pinnacle2.213.623.06

    Odds updated 21 Sept, 16:01

    Odds movement

    1-3 %
    45 %40 %

    2.27 → 2.21

    X+3 %
    29 %24 %

    3.52 → 3.62

    2+1 %
    34 %29 %

    3.03 → 3.06

    Over 2,50 %
    56 %51 %

    1.79 → 1.78

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 21/09/2026 → 21/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Ceuta 1Draw 1Real Sociedad B 0
    Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • AD Ceuta FC have lost 5 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Ceuta
    Real Sociedad B
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Ceuta (2–15)
    Real Sociedad B (8–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Ceuta
    Yann Yves Laurent Bodiger: 182 passningar, xT 0.18BodigerCarlos Redruello Nimo: 157 passningar, xT 0.64NimoAle Melendez: 150 passningar, xT 0.1MelendezCarlos Hernandez: 148 passningar, xT 0.07HernandezKuki Zalazar: 115 passningar, xT 0.15ZalazarMarino Illescas: 94 passningar, xT 0.15IllescasAdrián Lapeña Ruiz: 90 passningar, xT 0.02RuizAlejandro Camacho Ramirez: 80 passningar, xT 0.29RamirezChidiebere Gabriel Okoro: 77 passningar, xT -0.07OkoroGuillermo Vallejo: 76 passningar, xT 0.05VallejoJose Matos: 70 passningar, xT 0.17Matos
    Real Sociedad B
    Kazunari Kita: 211 passningar, xT 0.26KitaJon Garro Larrarte: 133 passningar, xT 0.23LarrarteUnax Agote: 132 passningar, xT 0.35AgoteAitor Fraga: 108 passningar, xT 0.15FragaJon Balda: 107 passningar, xT 0.14BaldaLuken Beitia: 91 passningar, xT 0.14BeitiaIbai Aguirre Basurco: 90 passningar, xT -0.05BasurcoLander Astiazaran: 82 passningar, xT 0.24AstiazaranTomás Carbonell del Rio: 82 passningar, xT 0.1RioGorka Gorosabel: 67 passningar, xT 0.1GorosabelAlex Lebarbier: 50 passningar, xT 0.06Lebarbier
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Ceuta
    Yann Yves Laurent Bodiger: 182 passningar, xT 0.18BodigerCarlos Redruello Nimo: 157 passningar, xT 0.64NimoAle Melendez: 150 passningar, xT 0.1MelendezCarlos Hernandez: 148 passningar, xT 0.07HernandezKuki Zalazar: 115 passningar, xT 0.15ZalazarMarino Illescas: 94 passningar, xT 0.15IllescasAdrián Lapeña Ruiz: 90 passningar, xT 0.02RuizAlejandro Camacho Ramirez: 80 passningar, xT 0.29RamirezChidiebere Gabriel Okoro: 77 passningar, xT -0.07OkoroGuillermo Vallejo: 76 passningar, xT 0.05VallejoJose Matos: 70 passningar, xT 0.17Matos
    Real Sociedad B
    Kazunari Kita: 211 passningar, xT 0.26KitaJon Garro Larrarte: 133 passningar, xT 0.23LarrarteUnax Agote: 132 passningar, xT 0.35AgoteAitor Fraga: 108 passningar, xT 0.15FragaJon Balda: 107 passningar, xT 0.14BaldaLuken Beitia: 91 passningar, xT 0.14BeitiaIbai Aguirre Basurco: 90 passningar, xT -0.05BasurcoLander Astiazaran: 82 passningar, xT 0.24AstiazaranTomás Carbonell del Rio: 82 passningar, xT 0.1RioGorka Gorosabel: 67 passningar, xT 0.1GorosabelAlex Lebarbier: 50 passningar, xT 0.06Lebarbier

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCeutaReal Sociedad B
    Points08
    xPoints4.16.2
    xG per match0.81.1
    xGA per match1.71.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.190.43
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.610.29
    Playing styleCeutaReal Sociedad B
    Build-up efficiency0.290.31
    Field tilt0.410.34
    xT per match0.730.75
    xTA per match1.10.96
    Won balls, offensive half2721
    Pressing intensity0.230.21
    Pressing efficiency0.240.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.170.23
    Entries into the box per match1110
    Entries into the box against1213
    Pass completion %0.760.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.67
    Passes per match334279
    Passes against per match387430
    Switches of play per match19.323.8
    Long balls per match2530
    Set piecesCeutaReal Sociedad B
    xG from free kicks0.020.01
    Corners per match5.23.8
    Corners against per match2.85.9
    xG per corner0.030.05
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.420.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.59
    OtherCeutaReal Sociedad B
    Throw-in control0.660.67
    The goalkeepersGuillermo Vallejo (Ceuta)Aitor Fraga (Real Sociedad B)
    Saves918
    Save %47%75%
    xG prevented39%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Ceuta
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Real Sociedad B
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Ceuta vs Real Sociedad B according to our model?

    The model gives Ceuta a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Ceuta 44%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad B 31%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.