Segunda División20°9 km/h

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    CD TenerifeCD TenerifePossession control
    vs
    CádizCádizBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · CD Tenerife (46%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.29 (+8 %)

    CD Tenerife vs Cádiz · Segunda División

    1 · CD Tenerife 46%X 33%21% Cádiz · 2

    Analysis: CD Tenerife – Cádiz

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: CD Tenerife's defensive solidity is set to be the cornerstone of their strategy against Cádiz, as their xGA of 0.72 per match is one of the most impressive in the league. This defensive prowess, combined with their possession control style, makes them the clear favorites in tomorrow's matchup. The model gives Tenerife a 46% chance to secure victory, and the numbers suggest that their backline could limit a Cádiz side struggling for points.

    Cádiz, with only 3 points so far, has not found a rhythm despite a slightly better xG per match of 0.98 compared to their hosts' 0.84. This indicates that while the visitors might create opportunities, they haven't been translating them into goals. Tenerife's defense, coupled with the expected rainy conditions, could further suppress Cádiz's attacking output, aligning with the most likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of the home team.

    The head-to-head record is slender, with only two matches since 2023, but Tenerife has not lost to Cádiz in this period. While historical data should be taken with a grain of salt due to the small sample size, it does contribute to the narrative of Tenerife's edge in this fixture. More importantly, current form and the expected defensive discipline by Tenerife should weigh more heavily in our considerations.

    With a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% probability for both teams to score, a low-scoring affair seems on the cards. The rain, set to reach 22.6 mm, is likely to dampen the attacking flair of both sides, reinforcing the model's forecast for a tight match.

    CD Tenerife's win probability at 46% plus their defensive edge points to value in backing the home side to capitalize on Cádiz's vulnerabilities and secure all three points.

    CD TenerifeCD Tenerife
    Form WWLDW
    League ranking xG #19xGA #2xT #22xP/match #4Points #4
    Key players
    • Enric GallegoFxG 0.58 · xT 0.01
    • Ignacio Gil de Pareja VicentLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11
    • Jesus Alvarez AguadoCMxG 0.05 · xT -0.03
    CádizCádiz
    Form DDDLL
    League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #21xP/match #12Points #20
    Key players
    • Javi CastroCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.07
    • Álvaro Miguel García PascualFxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
    • Antonio José Cordero CampilloLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: CD Tenerife – Cádiz

    Predicted score matrix

    Cádiz →
    CD Tenerife →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–011.7%
    0–19.8%
    0–24.6%
    0–31.4%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–014.1%
    1–113.4%
    1–25.9%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.2%
    2–18.3%
    2–23.8%
    2–31.1%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–03.9%
    3–13.5%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.5%
    3–4+0.1%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–11.5%
    4+–20.7%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-014%
    2. 2.1-113%
    3. 3.0-012%
    4. 4.0-110%
    5. 5.2-09%
    Expected goals
    1,28–0,90
    Both teams to score
    43%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,2
    Under 2,563%
    @1.55
    Over 2,537%
    @2.28

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • CD Tenerife to win46%
    • Under 3.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    36%

    Fair odds

    2.81

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • CD Tenerife to win46%
    • Under 2.5 goals63%
    • Enrique Gallego Puigsech to score30%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score43%
    • Over 2.5 goals37%
    • Enrique Gallego Puigsech to score30%
    • Bojan Kovačević to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • X · Draw33% probability@3.29PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
    • X · Draw33% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
    • X · Draw33% probability@3.20BetssonEV+5%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · CD TenerifeX2 · Cádiz
    Betsafe1.85
    EV+ 5%
    3.20    		4.20
    Betsson1.85
    EV+ 5%
    3.20    		4.20
    Nordicbet1.85
    EV+ 5%
    3.20    		4.20
    Pinnacle1.85
    EV+ 8%
    3.29    		4.72

    Odds updated 21 Sept, 16:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Cádiz win since 20 September — the odds have shortened from 5.42 to 4.72 (−13%).

    1+10 %
    56 %51 %

    1.68 → 1.85

    X-8 %
    30 %25 %

    3.57 → 3.29

    2-13 %
    21 %16 %

    5.42 → 4.72

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 20/09/2026 → 21/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    CD Tenerife 1Draw 1Cádiz 0
    Goals: 4–3 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    CD Tenerife
    Cádiz
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    CD Tenerife (7–3)
    Cádiz (5–7)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    CD Tenerife
    José León Bernal: 194 passningar, xT 0.24BernalDavid Rodriguez: 181 passningar, xT 0.11RodriguezAnthony Landazuri: 160 passningar, xT 0.15LandazuriYago Santiago: 107 passningar, xT 0.14SantiagoIgnacio Gil de Pareja Vicent: 107 passningar, xT 0.52VicentJesus Alvarez Aguado: 107 passningar, xT -0.02AguadoJuan Jose Sanchez Romero: 104 passningar, xT 0.1RomeroDaniel Martín Fernández: 103 passningar, xT 0.21FernándezVíctor Moreno Alcalá: 72 passningar, xT 0.15AlcaláJorge Moreno: 54 passningar, xT 0.15MorenoFabricio Assis de Souza Barbosa: 41 passningar, xT -0.03Barbosa
    Cádiz
    Javi Castro: 320 passningar, xT 0.32CastroDamián Rodríguez Sousa: 234 passningar, xT 0.18SousaJuan Díaz Peregrina: 165 passningar, xT 0.41PeregrinaBojan Kovačević: 129 passningar, xT 0.08KovačevićJokin Ezkieta: 107 passningar, xT 0.07EzkietaManuel Rivera Domínguez: 88 passningar, xT 0.12DomínguezAntonio José Cordero Campillo: 80 passningar, xT 0.25CampilloNoah Obioma Ukwuije: 78 passningar, xT 0.04UkwuijeUrko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi: 68 passningar, xT -0.11LertxundiMarc Olivier Doue: 62 passningar, xT 0.06DoueCristian Gutierrez: 56 passningar, xT 0.06Gutierrez
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    CD Tenerife
    José León Bernal: 194 passningar, xT 0.24BernalDavid Rodriguez: 181 passningar, xT 0.11RodriguezAnthony Landazuri: 160 passningar, xT 0.15LandazuriYago Santiago: 107 passningar, xT 0.14SantiagoIgnacio Gil de Pareja Vicent: 107 passningar, xT 0.52VicentJesus Alvarez Aguado: 107 passningar, xT -0.02AguadoJuan Jose Sanchez Romero: 104 passningar, xT 0.1RomeroDaniel Martín Fernández: 103 passningar, xT 0.21FernándezVíctor Moreno Alcalá: 72 passningar, xT 0.15AlcaláJorge Moreno: 54 passningar, xT 0.15MorenoFabricio Assis de Souza Barbosa: 41 passningar, xT -0.03Barbosa
    Cádiz
    Javi Castro: 320 passningar, xT 0.32CastroDamián Rodríguez Sousa: 234 passningar, xT 0.18SousaJuan Díaz Peregrina: 165 passningar, xT 0.41PeregrinaBojan Kovačević: 129 passningar, xT 0.08KovačevićJokin Ezkieta: 107 passningar, xT 0.07EzkietaManuel Rivera Domínguez: 88 passningar, xT 0.12DomínguezAntonio José Cordero Campillo: 80 passningar, xT 0.25CampilloNoah Obioma Ukwuije: 78 passningar, xT 0.04UkwuijeUrko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi: 68 passningar, xT -0.11LertxundiMarc Olivier Doue: 62 passningar, xT 0.06DoueCristian Gutierrez: 56 passningar, xT 0.06Gutierrez

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceCD TenerifeCádiz
    Points103
    xPoints8.16.5
    xG per match0.840.98
    xGA per match0.721.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.130.33
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.210.22
    Playing styleCD TenerifeCádiz
    Build-up efficiency0.310.33
    Field tilt0.480.42
    xT per match0.520.55
    xTA per match0.790.66
    Won balls, offensive half3021
    Pressing intensity0.220.24
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.24
    Entries into the box per match89
    Entries into the box against1012
    Pass completion %0.710.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.630.72
    Passes per match291381
    Passes against per match435362
    Switches of play per match29.623.8
    Long balls per match4029
    Set piecesCD TenerifeCádiz
    xG from free kicks0.040.01
    Corners per match3.74.8
    Corners against per match4.35.2
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.48
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.62
    OtherCD TenerifeCádiz
    Throw-in control0.670.62
    The goalkeepersDaniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife)Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz)
    Saves823
    Save %73%77%
    xG prevented48%59%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    CD Tenerife
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Cádiz
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins CD Tenerife vs Cádiz according to our model?

    The model gives CD Tenerife a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: CD Tenerife 46%, draw 33%, Cádiz 21%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 43% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.