Mallorca vs Almería: Prediction & Odds (27 Sept 2026)

Segunda División27 September 202621°10 km/h

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MallorcaPossession & high press

AlmeríaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Mallorca (56%)

1 · Mallorca 56%X 25%19% Almería · 2

56%

25%

19%

Analysis: Mallorca – Almería

Marcus Johansson · 19 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The small head-to-head sample doesn't weigh as heavily as these form indicators — this is an unsupported claim not present in the facts. Also, the betting odds "1.91 with Bet365" are unsupported and not included in the facts.

Corrected text:

The model gives Mallorca a solid 56% chance of victory over Almería, primarily driven by their superior defensive numbers. With expected goals against (xGA) for the hosts at 0.8 compared to the visitors' 1.2, a clean sheet looks more likely for Mallorca. Their playing style, which emphasizes possession and high pressing, is likely to suffocate Almería's balanced but less threatening approach.

Mallorca’s advantage is further underscored by their 10 points in the standings versus Almería's 9, which is backed by expected points (xPoints) suggesting even greater dominance. Despite both teams having similar xG per match at 1.1, the defensive edge of the hosts tilts the balance in their favor, making Mallorca's 1-0 win the most probable outcome at 13%.

The under 2.5 goals market stands at a 53% likelihood, and given Mallorca's defensive prowess, this aligns with the expected tight contest. Keep an eye on the game's first goal — it could well dictate whether the match opens up or remains a cautious affair.

Mallorca

Form WLWDW

League ranking xG #9xGA #3xT #10xP/match #5Points #3

Key players

Adrian Fuentes GonzalezFxG 0.52 · xT 0.19
Álex Sala HerreroCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.06
Martin ValjentCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07

Almería

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #10xGA #15xT #19xP/match #18Points #6

Key players

Stefan DžodićCMxG 0.25 · xT 0.05
Leonardo Micali Carrilho BaptistãoRWxG 0.81 · xT 0.15
Federico BoniniCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Mallorca – Almería

Predicted score matrix

Almería →

Mallorca →

0–08.0%

0–16.5%

0–23.1%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.6%

1–111.8%

1–25.1%

1–31.5%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.8%

2–19.6%

2–24.3%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.0%

3–15.4%

3–22.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.7%

4+–13.3%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,67–0,89

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.93EV+2%

Over 2,547%

@1.89

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Mallorca to win56%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Mallorca to win56%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score30%
Álex Sala Herrero to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Mallorca56% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
1 · Mallorca56% probability@2.05BetssonEV+14%reference odds
1 · Mallorca56% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+14%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Mallorca	X	2 · Almería
Betsafe	EV+ 14% 2.05	3.20	3.50
Betsson	EV+ 14% 2.05	3.20	3.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 14% 2.05	3.20	3.50
Pinnacle	EV+ 14% 2.04	3.27	3.86

Odds updated 21 Sept, 16:01

Odds movement

10 %

49 %44 %

2.04 → 2.04

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.28 → 3.27

20 %

27 %22 %

3.85 → 3.86

Over 2,5-3 %

52 %47 %

1.95 → 1.89

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 21/09/2026 → 21/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Mallorca

Almería

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Mallorca (7–2)

Almería (8–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Mallorca

Almería

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Mallorca

Almería

The teams in numbers

Performance	Mallorca	Almería
Points	10	9
xPoints	7.5	5.9
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	0.8	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.45	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.12	0.17

Playing style	Mallorca	Almería
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.54	0.46
xT per match	0.79	0.62
xTA per match	0.73	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	22	19
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.33
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.28
Entries into the box per match	10	8
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.81	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.74
Passes per match	412	408
Passes against per match	341	310
Switches of play per match	17.9	18
Long balls per match	26	27

Set pieces	Mallorca	Almería
xG from free kicks	0.02	0.2
Corners per match	3.6	3.9
Corners against per match	4.8	5.9
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.28	0.3
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.47

Other	Mallorca	Almería
Throw-in control	0.63	0.66

The goalkeepers	Arnau Tenas Ureña (Mallorca)	Andres Fernandez (Almería)
Saves	14	11
Save %	93%	79%
xG prevented	80%	36%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Mallorca

Fixtures, form & tips

Almería

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Mallorca vs Almería according to our model?

The model gives Mallorca a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mallorca 56%, draw 25%, Almería 19%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.