Eibar vs Las Palmas: Prediction & Odds (27 Sept 2026)

Segunda División27 September 202623°13 km/h

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EibarLow block & direct

Las PalmasPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Eibar (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Las Palmas @ 4.31 (+24 %)

1 · Eibar 41%X 30%29% Las Palmas · 2

41%

30%

29%

Analysis: Eibar – Las Palmas

Anna Karlsson · 19 September 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

FAKTA-KONTROLL: Teksten inneholder en feil. Fakta oppgir "Over 2.5 goals: 42%", men teksten skriver feilaktig "under 2.5 goals prediction at 42%".

KORRIGERT TEKST:

Two matches may not make a trend, but since 2023, Eibar and Las Palmas have split their head-to-head encounters evenly, each taking one victory. While this small sample offers little predictive value, it does set the stage for a tight contest. However, it's the current form and expected goals that truly tip the scale in favor of the hosts. Riding a wave of four consecutive wins, Eibar have consistently found the net, scoring in their last 12 league outings.

Domestically, Eibar are a formidable force at home, winning 61% of their matches. Their ability to maintain scoring momentum is further evidenced by their expected goals (xG) numbers, which slightly edge out Las Palmas. Eibar's direct style contrasts sharply with Las Palmas’ possession-focused approach. This tactical dichotomy will likely play a decisive role, with the visitors aiming to control the game but possibly finding it tough against Eibar's resolute low-block defense.

The model probabilities reflect a tilt towards the Basque side, assigning them a 41% chance of victory. The most likely scorelines, notably 1-1 and 1-0, suggest a match not brimming with goals. The expected goals for both teams hover just above one, aligning with an over 2.5 goals prediction at 42%. The odds for both teams to score stand at 48%, underscoring a cautious outlook on an offensive showcase.

The sharpest angle for bettors may lie with Eibar pulling off a slender 1-0 win. Given the model's preference for Eibar and their formidable home record, the value leans towards a home win, with markets such as Bet365 offering odds that align with the model's 41% assessment. Yet, as always, this isn't a guarantee—it's an expression of where the probabilities find the edge.

Eibar

Form LWWWW

League ranking xG #12xGA #5xT #17xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Jon BautistaFxG 0.46 · xT 0.01
Adu AresRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
Ander MadariagaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.02

Las Palmas

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #15xGA #6xT #16xP/match #13Points #5

Key players

Jesé Rodríguez RuizFxG 0.18 · xT 0.05
Taisei MiyashiroRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.09
Kirian RodriguezCDMxG 0.00 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Eibar – Las Palmas

Predicted score matrix

Las Palmas →

Eibar →

0–09.7%

0–19.1%

0–24.8%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–012.2%

1–113.2%

1–26.6%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.5%

2–18.7%

2–24.4%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–03.9%

3–13.9%

3–22.0%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.8%

4+–11.8%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.0-010%
4.0-19%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,36–1,02

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@1.75EV+1%

Over 2,542%

@2.13

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eibar or draw (1X)72%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eibar or draw (1X)72%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Jon Bautista Orgilles to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Jon Bautista Orgilles to score30%
Enzo Lilian Marin Loiodice to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Las Palmas29% probability@4.31PinnacleEV+24%reference odds
2 · Las Palmas29% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Las Palmas29% probability@3.70BetssonEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Eibar	X	2 · Las Palmas
Betsafe	2.02	3.10	EV+ 7% 3.70
Betsson	2.02	3.10	EV+ 7% 3.70
Nordicbet	2.02	3.10	EV+ 7% 3.70
Pinnacle	2.01	3.07	EV+ 24% 4.31

Odds updated 21 Sept, 16:35

Odds movement

1+2 %

50 %45 %

1.98 → 2.01

X-3 %

33 %28 %

3.16 → 3.07

2+1 %

25 %20 %

4.26 → 4.31

Over 2,50 %

47 %42 %

2.12 → 2.13

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 21/09/2026 → 21/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Eibar 1Draw 0Las Palmas 1

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 4)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

SD Eibar come into this round on 4 straight wins.
SD Eibar have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
SD Eibar win 61% of their home matches all-time (67 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Eibar

Las Palmas

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Eibar (10–3)

Las Palmas (7–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Eibar

Las Palmas

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Eibar

Las Palmas

The teams in numbers

Performance	Eibar	Las Palmas
Points	12	10
xPoints	8.6	6.5
xG per match	1	0.96
xGA per match	0.88	0.95
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.2

Playing style	Eibar	Las Palmas
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.27
Field tilt	0.24	0.59
xT per match	0.67	0.7
xTA per match	1	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.19
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	15	11
Pass completion %	0.73	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.77
Passes per match	288	394
Passes against per match	487	350
Switches of play per match	23.6	19.9
Long balls per match	30	26

Set pieces	Eibar	Las Palmas
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.1
Corners per match	3.2	4.1
Corners against per match	4.8	5.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.46

Other	Eibar	Las Palmas
Throw-in control	0.66	0.67

The goalkeepers	Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar)	José Antonio Caro Díaz (Las Palmas)
Saves	22	14
Save %	88%	70%
xG prevented	82%	54%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Eibar

Fixtures, form & tips

Las Palmas

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Eibar vs Las Palmas according to our model?

The model gives Eibar a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eibar 41%, draw 30%, Las Palmas 29%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.