Celta Fortuna vs Sabadell: Prediction & Odds (26 Sept 2026)

Segunda División26 September 202619°7 km/h

Celta FortunaCounter-attacks & crosses

SabadellPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Celta Fortuna (42%)

Limited data — The model has few previous matches with these teams in this league — the forecast therefore rests on thinner data than usual.

1 · Celta Fortuna 42%X 26%32% Sabadell · 2

42%

26%

32%

Analysis: Celta Fortuna – Sabadell

Sofia Andersson · 19 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: A clash of styles defines the matchup between Celta Fortuna and Sabadell, where the hosts' counter-attacking flair meets the visitors' possession-heavy approach. The model gives a slight edge to Celta Fortuna with a 42% win probability, yet the numbers suggest Sabadell carries a hidden advantage. Although both sides sit close in the standings, with Sabadell boasting a single-point lead, their xPoints and xG metrics highlight a more substantial performance gap.

Celta's expected goals of 1.6 against Sabadell's 1.46 suggest a tight contest but lean toward a high-scoring affair, supported by a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals. With Sabadell's superior xG per match at 1.6 against Celta's 1.2, and a tighter defensive record of 1.1 xGA per match compared to Celta's 1.5, Sabadell seems better poised to capitalize on opportunities. This contrast may not be fully reflected in the even odds.

The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 11% aligns with both teams' tendency to score, underpinned by the 62% probability for both teams to find the net. However, Sabadell's possession style could disrupt Celta's counter-attacks, potentially tilting the scales their way in a 1-2 victory. While the model leans toward the hosts, Sabadell's underlying numbers suggest they might outplay their odds.

Given the small head-to-head sample, current form and expected goals take precedence. The subtle yet significant gaps in the teams' xG and xGA figures highlight value in backing Sabadell, particularly with a draw no bet option at favorable odds. The best angle lies in exploiting this discrepancy, where Sabadell's possession could dismantle Celta's defensive structure, making an away win an enticing proposition.

Celta Fortuna

Form DWLWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #20xT #7xP/match #19Points #14

Key players

Bernard Somuah SarpongFxG 0.48 · xT 0.05
Adria Capdevila PuigmalFxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
Anxo Rodríguez ÁlvarezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.03

Sabadell

Form DDWWL

League ranking xG #3xGA #11xT #11xP/match #2Points #8

Key players

Nicholas Selson GioacchiniFxG 0.73 · xT 0.07
Albert Orriols CerarolsCDMxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
Gastón Andrés LodicoRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Celta Fortuna – Sabadell

Predicted score matrix

Sabadell →

Celta Fortuna →

0–05.0%

0–16.5%

0–25.0%

0–32.4%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.2%

1–111.3%

1–28.0%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.0%

2–18.8%

2–26.4%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.6%

3–03.2%

3–14.7%

3–23.4%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,60–1,46

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@1.81

Over 2,559%

@2.03EV+17%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Celta Fortuna or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Celta Fortuna or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Óscar Marcos Santamaría to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Óscar Marcos Santamaría to score19%
Albert Orriols Cerarols to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Celta Fortuna42% probability@3.27PinnacleEV+37%reference odds
1 · Celta Fortuna42% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+34%reference odds
1 · Celta Fortuna42% probability@3.20BetssonEV+34%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Celta Fortuna	X	2 · Sabadell
Betsafe	EV+ 34% 3.20	3.20	2.15
Betsson	EV+ 34% 3.20	3.20	2.15
Nordicbet	EV+ 34% 3.20	3.20	2.15
Pinnacle	EV+ 37% 3.27	3.37	2.22

Odds updated 21 Sept, 11:35

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Celta Fortuna

Sabadell

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Celta Fortuna (7–8)

Sabadell (4–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Celta Fortuna

Sabadell

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Celta Fortuna

Sabadell

The teams in numbers

Performance	Celta Fortuna	Sabadell
Points	7	8
xPoints	5.6	9.3
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.48	0.3

Playing style	Celta Fortuna	Sabadell
Build-up efficiency	0.23	0.37
Field tilt	0.53	0.49
xT per match	0.92	0.78
xTA per match	0.76	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	24	33
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.28
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	9	9
Pass completion %	0.78	0.64
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.58
Passes per match	370	234
Passes against per match	375	390
Switches of play per match	19.7	17.9
Long balls per match	29	27

Set pieces	Celta Fortuna	Sabadell
xG from free kicks	0	0.02
Corners per match	3.6	5
Corners against per match	4.4	3.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.75

Other	Celta Fortuna	Sabadell
Throw-in control	0.66	0.62

The goalkeepers	Jorge Carrillo Balea (Celta Fortuna)	Diego Licinio Lázaro Fuoli (Sabadell)
Saves	19	14
Save %	70%	78%
xG prevented	61%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Celta Fortuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Sabadell

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Celta Fortuna vs Sabadell according to our model?

The model gives Celta Fortuna a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celta Fortuna 42%, draw 26%, Sabadell 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.