Girona vs Mallorca Prediction: Home win 35% (4 Oct 2026)

Segunda División4 October 202620°8,1 mm15 km/h

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GironaPossession control

MallorcaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Girona (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Mallorca @ 3.26 (+13 %)

1 · Girona 35%X 30%35% Mallorca · 2

35%

30%

35%

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Analysis: Girona – Mallorca

Marcus Johansson · 29 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The model probabilities reflect an unusual balance: both Girona and Mallorca stand at 35% to win, with a model lean favoring the hosts. Yet, in terms of expected points, Mallorca nudges ahead with an xPoints of 9.6 compared to Girona's 8.9. This tension highlights the visitors' strategic advantage, especially given their effective high-press system and superior defensive metrics with an xGA of 0.94, much tighter than Girona’s 1.6.

Mallorca's playing style, characterized by pressing and proactive ball recovery, gives them an edge in quick transitions, as evidenced by their xG within 8s of winning the ball at 0.35 compared to Girona’s 0.15. While Girona holds the possession-based approach, their defensive frailties could be exploited. The model’s most likely scoreline of 1-1 (13%) reflects the tight nature of this contest, with both teams to score hovering at 51%.

The match leans towards a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals slightly more probable at 55%. Betting value emerges on Mallorca, noted at odds of 3.15 with Betsafe, Betsson, and LeoVegas, presenting a 9% edge based on a model rating of 35%. This value underscores the visitors' potential to harness their pressing game for a decisive outcome.

Girona

Form WWLWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #22xT #5xP/match #15Points #5

Key players

Arnau MartinezRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Bryan GilFxG 0.35 · xT -0.01
Yáser AsprillaRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.22

Mallorca

Form WDWWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #15xP/match #9Points #6

Key players

Adrian Fuentes GonzalezFxG 0.45 · xT 0.12
Martin ValjentCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Toni LatoLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Girona – Mallorca

Predicted score matrix

Mallorca →

Girona →

0–08.7%

0–19.2%

0–25.5%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–010.7%

1–113.2%

1–27.4%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.4%

2–18.5%

2–24.9%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.3%

3–13.8%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,33–1,15

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.98EV+4%

Over 2,545%

@1.84

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Girona or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Girona or draw (1X)68%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Yáser Esnéider Asprilla Martínez to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score24%
Álex Sala Herrero to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Mallorca35% probability@3.26PinnacleEV+13%reference odds
2 · Mallorca35% probability@3.15BetssonEV+9%reference odds
Under 2.555% probability@1.98PinnacleEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Girona	X	2 · Mallorca
Betsafe	2.15	3.30	EV+ 8% 3.10
Betsson	2.12	3.30	EV+ 9% 3.15
LeoVegas	2.18	3.30	EV+ 6% 3.05
Nordicbet	2.15	3.30	EV+ 8% 3.10
Pinnacle	2.17	EV+ 5% 3.49	EV+ 13% 3.26

Odds updated 1 Oct, 11:36

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Girona

Mallorca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Girona (14–8)

Mallorca (8–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Girona

Mallorca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Girona

Mallorca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Girona	Mallorca
Points	13	13
xPoints	8.9	9.6
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.6	0.94
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.43	0.23

Playing style	Girona	Mallorca
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.45	0.6
xT per match	0.99	0.79
xTA per match	1.2	0.72
Won balls, offensive half	22	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.26
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	13	9
Pass completion %	0.79	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.75
Passes per match	389	411
Passes against per match	389	326
Switches of play per match	27.4	16.7
Long balls per match	36	25

Set pieces	Girona	Mallorca
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	3.8	3.9
Corners against per match	3.5	4.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.08	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.37
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.58

Other	Girona	Mallorca
Throw-in control	0.74	0.65

The goalkeepers	Paulo Gazzaniga (Girona)	Arnau Tenas Ureña (Mallorca)
Saves	29	18
Save %	81%	90%
xG prevented	50%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Girona

Fixtures, form & tips

Mallorca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Girona vs Mallorca according to our model?

The model gives Girona a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Girona 35%, draw 30%, Mallorca 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.