Almería vs Burgos Prediction: Home win 47% (3 Oct 2026)

Segunda División3 October 202624°0,9 mm10 km/h

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AlmeríaBalanced & physical

BurgosPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Almería (47%)Best value by the model: 2 · Burgos @ 4.30 (+5 %)

1 · Almería 47%X 28%24% Burgos · 2

47%

28%

24%

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Analysis: Almería – Burgos

Marcus Johansson · 26 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Three straight wins have Almería riding a wave of momentum that contrasts sharply with their mixed historical head-to-head record against Burgos. With a balanced and physical style, the hosts have shown a capacity to control matches on their turf, boasting a 68% win rate at home over 47 matches. This strength is further reflected in their current form, making them clear favorites in this contest.

Burgos, with their possession-oriented approach, will aim to disrupt Almería's rhythm. However, the visitors' penchant for maintaining control has not always translated into results, as seen in their marginally inferior xG per match of 1.2 compared to Almería’s 1.3. Their xPoints edge of 8.5 over Almería's 8.3 is slight and must be balanced against the hosts’ recent form and home advantage.

The expected goals model suggests a tight affair, with Almería projected to score 1.53 and Burgos 0.99. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 indicate a match that could tip in the favor of the team that seizes the moment in front of goal. With the probability of a draw at 28%, a stalemate isn't out of the question, yet Almería’s home streak suggests otherwise.

Despite the small head-to-head sample size of four matches, Burgos' slight past advantage is overshadowed by Almería's all-time home success and recent winning streak. The over 2.5 goals probability at 46% signals a moderately open game, aligning with the predicted scorelines.

Given the dynamics at play, Almería's odds to win at home are appealing. A 1-0 home win seems slightly more plausible than a draw, favoring those who back Almería's continued run of form in front of their fans.

Almería

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #13xT #13xP/match #10Points #5

Key players

Miguel De La FuenteFxG 0.29 · xT 0.07
Adrián Embarba BlázquezRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
Leonardo Micali Carrilho BaptistãoRWxG 0.81 · xT 0.15

Burgos

Form LDDWW

League ranking xG #7xGA #12xT #5xP/match #6Points #6

Key players

Jon Karrikaburu JaimerenaFxG 0.38 · xT 0.11
Álex Forés MendozaFxG 0.41 · xT 0.05
David GonzalezRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Almería – Burgos

Predicted score matrix

Burgos →

Almería →

0–08.4%

0–17.6%

0–23.9%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–012.0%

1–112.5%

1–26.0%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.4%

2–19.3%

2–24.6%

2–31.5%

2–4+0.5%

3–04.8%

3–14.8%

3–22.4%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-012%
3.2-09%
4.2-19%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,53–0,99

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

120%

226%

321%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

–

Over 2,546%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Almería to win47%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Almería to win47%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Miguel de la Fuente Escudero to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Miguel de la Fuente Escudero to score28%
José Gragera Amado to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Burgos24% probability@4.30BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
2 · Burgos24% probability@4.30BetssonEV+5%reference odds
2 · Burgos24% probability@4.30NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Almería	X	2 · Burgos
Betsafe	1.75	3.45	EV+ 5% 4.30
Betsson	1.75	3.45	EV+ 5% 4.30
Nordicbet	1.75	3.45	EV+ 5% 4.30

Odds updated 26 Sept, 15:35

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Almería 1Draw 1Burgos 2

Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

UD Almería come into this round on 3 straight wins.
UD Almería win 68% of their home matches all-time (47 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Almería

Burgos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Almería (10–4)

Burgos (10–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Almería

Burgos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Almería

Burgos

The teams in numbers

Performance	Almería	Burgos
Points	12	11
xPoints	8.3	8.5
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.22

Playing style	Almería	Burgos
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.45	0.39
xT per match	0.78	1
xTA per match	0.97	0.87
Won balls, offensive half	20	22
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.31	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	9	10
Entries into the box against	14	14
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.75
Passes per match	413	353
Passes against per match	325	359
Switches of play per match	17.4	23.5
Long balls per match	26	34

Set pieces	Almería	Burgos
xG from free kicks	0.17	0.07
Corners per match	3.6	3.7
Corners against per match	5.7	6.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.54

Other	Almería	Burgos
Throw-in control	0.69	0.71

The goalkeepers	Andres Fernandez (Almería)	Ander Cantero (Burgos)
Saves	12	19
Save %	80%	73%
xG prevented	38%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Almería

Fixtures, form & tips

Burgos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Almería vs Burgos according to our model?

The model gives Almería a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Almería 47%, draw 28%, Burgos 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.