Segunda División

    Läs på svenska
    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad BLow block & direct
    vs
    GranadaGranadaPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Granada (40%)

    Real Sociedad B vs Granada · Segunda División

    1 · Real Sociedad B 31%X 29%40% Granada · 2

    Bet on this match

    BetssonFå ett 250 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4!Claim the bonus at Betsson
    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: Real Sociedad B – Granada

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Granada's control-oriented playstyle faces off against Real Sociedad B's direct approach, setting up an intriguing tactical clash. Despite the visitors being slight favorites with a 40% chance of winning, the xPoints suggest a nuanced picture — the hosts have a slight edge with 7.8 xPoints compared to Granada's 7.4. This could hint that the market may be overvaluing Granada's win probability.

    The most likely scoreline model indicates a tight contest, with 1-1 at 13% and 0-1 or 1-2 each at 9%. The expected goals line up similarly, with Granada slightly ahead at 1.43 xG to La Real's 1.27. This suggests goals might be at a premium, despite the over 2.5 goals market sitting at a coin-flip 51%. Such numbers imply a cagey affair, where both sides find the net — the "both teams to score" market at 55% aligns with this notion.

    Real Sociedad B's strength lies in their quick transitions, boasting 0.39 xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, significantly higher than Granada's 0.16 in the same metric. This suggests the hosts could trouble Granada on the break, especially given the latter's preference for possession-based control, which could leave them vulnerable to quick counters.

    The head-to-head record since 2023 is limited to just two matches, with Sociedad B losing both. Such a small sample size should not overshadow current form and expected goals. What matters more is how each team is trending this season, and here Sociedad B's edge in direct counter-attacking opportunities might just make them worth a closer look.

    For punters searching for value, the draw could be appealing at 29%. However, a sharp angle lies with Sociedad B at 3.25 odds (implied 31%) with Unibet, given their counter-attacking prowess and Granada's potential vulnerability. While not a certainty, it captures a potential market misstep.

    Real Sociedad BReal Sociedad B
    Form WDDWL
    League ranking xG #13xGA #17xT #17xP/match #14Points #13
    Key players
    • Lander AstiazaranLWxG 0.35 · xT 0.07
    • Dani DiazFxG 0.13 · xT 0.30
    • Arkaitz MariezkurrenaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.06
    GranadaGranada
    Form WWLDL
    League ranking xG #9xGA #15xT #4xP/match #18Points #12
    Key players
    • Benedikt Steffen GimberCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
    • Gerard GumbauCAMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
    • Manu LamaCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Real Sociedad B – Granada

    Predicted score matrix

    Granada →
    Real Sociedad B →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–07.1%
    0–19.3%
    0–26.9%
    0–33.3%
    0–4+1.6%
    1
    1–08.2%
    1–112.6%
    1–28.7%
    1–34.2%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.4%
    2–17.7%
    2–25.5%
    2–32.6%
    2–4+1.3%
    3
    3–02.3%
    3–13.3%
    3–22.3%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.0%
    4+–11.4%
    4+–21.0%
    4+–30.5%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-19%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.1-08%
    5. 5.2-18%
    Expected goals
    1,27–1,43
    Both teams to score
    55%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,7
    Under 2,549%
    @1.85
    Over 2,551%
    @1.97

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Granada or draw (X2)67%
    • Under 3.5 goals71%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.09

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Granada or draw (X2)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Pedro Alemañ Serna to score17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score55%
    • Over 2.5 goals51%
    • Gorka Gorosabel Añorga to score25%
    • Manuel Lama Maroto to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Granada40% probability@2.94PinnacleEV+17%reference odds
    • 2 · Granada40% probability@2.80BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • 2 · Granada40% probability@2.80BetssonEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Real Sociedad BX2 · Granada
    Betsafe2.403.15
    EV+ 11%
    2.80
    Betsson2.403.15
    EV+ 11%
    2.80
    Nordicbet2.403.15
    EV+ 11%
    2.80
    Pinnacle2.453.28
    EV+ 17%
    2.94

    Odds updated 27 Sept, 16:08

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Real Sociedad B 0Draw 0Granada 2
    Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 4,5)

    Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Real Sociedad B
    Granada
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Real Sociedad B (8–7)
    Granada (8–8)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Real Sociedad B
    Kazunari Kita: 205 passningar, xT 0.23KitaAitor Fraga: 123 passningar, xT 0.16FragaJon Balda: 122 passningar, xT 0.14BaldaUnax Agote: 112 passningar, xT 0.37AgoteJon Garro Larrarte: 104 passningar, xT 0.18LarrarteIbai Aguirre Basurco: 91 passningar, xT -0.01BasurcoLuken Beitia: 91 passningar, xT 0.14BeitiaLander Astiazaran: 77 passningar, xT 0.07AstiazaranTomás Carbonell del Rio: 75 passningar, xT 0.09RioGorka Gorosabel: 57 passningar, xT 0.26GorosabelAlex Lebarbier: 56 passningar, xT 0.06Lebarbier
    Granada
    Manu Lama: 247 passningar, xT 0.35LamaRuben Alcaraz: 208 passningar, xT 0.05AlcarazSergio López Galache: 208 passningar, xT 1.84GalacheRaul Lizoain: 185 passningar, xT 0.12LizoainGerard Gumbau: 170 passningar, xT 0.2GumbauDiego Varela Pampín: 100 passningar, xT 0.2PampínBenedikt Steffen Gimber: 99 passningar, xT 0.1GimberBourama Dembelé: 92 passningar, xT 0.1DembeléJose Manuel Arnaiz: 86 passningar, xT 0.67ArnaizPedro Aleman: 62 passningar, xT 0.03AlemanJorge Pascual: 59 passningar, xT 0.03Pascual
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Real Sociedad B
    Kazunari Kita: 205 passningar, xT 0.23KitaAitor Fraga: 123 passningar, xT 0.16FragaJon Balda: 122 passningar, xT 0.14BaldaUnax Agote: 112 passningar, xT 0.37AgoteJon Garro Larrarte: 104 passningar, xT 0.18LarrarteIbai Aguirre Basurco: 91 passningar, xT -0.01BasurcoLuken Beitia: 91 passningar, xT 0.14BeitiaLander Astiazaran: 77 passningar, xT 0.07AstiazaranTomás Carbonell del Rio: 75 passningar, xT 0.09RioGorka Gorosabel: 57 passningar, xT 0.26GorosabelAlex Lebarbier: 56 passningar, xT 0.06Lebarbier
    Granada
    Manu Lama: 247 passningar, xT 0.35LamaRuben Alcaraz: 208 passningar, xT 0.05AlcarazSergio López Galache: 208 passningar, xT 1.84GalacheRaul Lizoain: 185 passningar, xT 0.12LizoainGerard Gumbau: 170 passningar, xT 0.2GumbauDiego Varela Pampín: 100 passningar, xT 0.2PampínBenedikt Steffen Gimber: 99 passningar, xT 0.1GimberBourama Dembelé: 92 passningar, xT 0.1DembeléJose Manuel Arnaiz: 86 passningar, xT 0.67ArnaizPedro Aleman: 62 passningar, xT 0.03AlemanJorge Pascual: 59 passningar, xT 0.03Pascual

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceReal Sociedad BGranada
    Points88
    xPoints7.87.4
    xG per match11.1
    xGA per match1.31.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.390.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.260.31
    Playing styleReal Sociedad BGranada
    Build-up efficiency0.310.3
    Field tilt0.320.51
    xT per match0.731
    xTA per match0.90.84
    Won balls, offensive half2026
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.280.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.21
    Entries into the box per match1011
    Entries into the box against139
    Pass completion %0.710.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.67
    Passes per match276324
    Passes against per match431327
    Switches of play per match24.733.2
    Long balls per match3044
    Set piecesReal Sociedad BGranada
    xG from free kicks0.010.01
    Corners per match4.14.2
    Corners against per match5.43.7
    xG per corner0.040.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.56
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.64
    OtherReal Sociedad BGranada
    Throw-in control0.670.66
    The goalkeepersAitor Fraga (Real Sociedad B)Raul Lizoain (Granada)
    Saves1825
    Save %72%76%
    xG prevented49%51%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Real Sociedad B
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Granada
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Real Sociedad B vs Granada according to our model?

    The model gives Granada a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Real Sociedad B 31%, draw 29%, Granada 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    CórdobaCórdoba
    2–1
    GironaGirona
    1 44%X 24%2 32%
    The model called the outcome
    Real OviedoReal Oviedo
    0–1
    LeganésLeganés
    1 44%X 28%2 29%
    The model missed the outcome
    EldenseEldense
    2–2
    CádizCádiz
    1 47%X 28%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome
    Betsson
    BetssonPopulär
    Få ett 250 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4!

    250 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus
    Nordicbet
    Nordicbet
    Välkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.

    100 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus
    Betsafe
    Betsafe
    Hämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!

    100 kr gratisspel plus freespins

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.