01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance FC Andorra or draw (X2)67%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Segunda División21°12 km/h
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SabadellPossession controlvs
FC AndorraPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · FC Andorra (39%)
Sabadell vs FC Andorra · Segunda División
1 · Sabadell 31%X 30%39% FC Andorra · 2
31%
30%
39%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Sabadell – FC Andorra
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
FC Andorra's five-game losing streak looms large as they travel to Sabadell, despite their marginal model edge at 39%. The high probability of a 1-1 draw at 12% and expected goals sitting close, at Sabadell 1.34 to Andorra's 1.54, suggests a tight contest. Both teams exhibit similar profiles in expected goals per match, each at 1.6, pointing to potential for goals, though Sabadell's possession control might temper Andorra’s high press.
Sabadell holds a practical edge in terms of actual points, 11 to Andorra’s 3. However, when diving deeper, the xPoints are closer, favoring Sabadell slightly at 11.5 over Andorra's 8.4. This underlines the hosts' slight efficiency in converting chances into results. Defensively, the visitors have a slight advantage in xGA, conceding 0.9 to Sabadell's 0.98, which might balance the scales somewhat.
A 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely outcome, aligning with the model's second-most probable scoreline of 1-2. The over 2.5 goals market leans at 55%, but with both defenses tightly matched, caution is advised.
SabadellForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #3xGA #9xT #9xP/match #2Points #7
Key players
- Nicholas Selson GioacchiniFxG 0.73 · xT 0.07
- Albert Orriols CerarolsCDMxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
- Gastón Andrés LodicoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.12
FC AndorraForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #2xP/match #7Points #20
Key players
- Efe AkmanCMxG 0.11 · xT 0.15
- Marc BombardoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
- Marti VilaLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.28
Match prediction: Sabadell – FC Andorra
Predicted score matrix
FC Andorra →
Sabadell →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.9%
0–18.3%
0–26.7%
0–33.4%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–07.2%
1–111.9%
1–28.9%
1–34.6%
1–4+2.5%
2
2–05.0%
2–17.7%
2–26.0%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–02.2%
3–13.5%
3–22.7%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,34–1,54
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
224%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@1.72
Over 2,555%
@2.12EV+13%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance FC Andorra or draw (X2)67%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jordi Cano Jiménez to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Jordi Cano Jiménez to score28%
- Albert Orriols Cerarols to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · FC Andorra39% probability@3.69PinnacleEV+44%reference odds
- 2 · FC Andorra39% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
- 2 · FC Andorra39% probability@3.60BetssonEV+40%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Sabadell | X | 2 · FC Andorra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.05 | 3.00 | EV+ 40% 3.60 |
| Betsson | 2.05 | 3.00 | EV+ 40% 3.60 |
| Nordicbet | 2.05 | 3.00 | EV+ 40% 3.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.18 | EV+ 44% 3.69 |
Odds updated 27 Sept, 05:05
Statistics
Key facts
- FC Andorra have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Sabadell
FC Andorra
Sabadell (7–5)
FC Andorra (9–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Sabadell
FC Andorra
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Sabadell
FC Andorra
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Sabadell | FC Andorra |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 3 |
| xPoints | 11.5 | 8.4 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 0.98 | 0.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.3 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Playing style | Sabadell | FC Andorra |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.82 |
| xT per match | 0.89 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.81 | 0.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 7 |
| Pass completion % | 0.64 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.59 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 235 | 484 |
| Passes against per match | 387 | 192 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.2 | 51.7 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 46 |
| Set pieces | Sabadell | FC Andorra |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| Other | Sabadell | FC Andorra |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Diego Licinio Lázaro Fuoli (Sabadell) | Pau López Sabata (FC Andorra) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 8 |
| Save % | 75% | 47% |
| xG prevented | 45% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Eldense – Real Oviedo2 October 2026
- Albacete – Eibar3 October 2026
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- Almería – Burgos3 October 2026
- Las Palmas – Real Valladolid4 October 2026
- Sporting Gijón – Celta Fortuna4 October 2026
- Castellon – Ceuta4 October 2026
- Real Sociedad B – Granada4 October 2026
- Córdoba – CD Tenerife4 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Sabadell vs FC Andorra according to our model?
The model gives FC Andorra a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sabadell 31%, draw 30%, FC Andorra 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.