Albacete vs Eibar Prediction: Away win 36% (3 Oct 2026)

Segunda División3 October 202620°2,7 mm21 km/h

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AlbacetePossession & high press

EibarLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Eibar (36%)Soft draw

1 · Albacete 36%X 28%36% Eibar · 2

36%

28%

36%

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Analysis: Albacete – Eibar

Sofia Andersson · 26 September 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: In four head-to-head encounters since 2023 between Albacete and Eibar, the visitors have dominated, winning three and drawing one. It's a small sample, but it hints at a psychological edge for Eibar. However, it's Eibar's current form that raises eyebrows: they've strung together five consecutive wins and found the net in each of their last 13 league games. Albacete, meanwhile, have struggled to match that level of consistency, and their solitary point against Eibar in recent matches underscores the challenge they face.

Tactically, this is a clash of styles. Albacete's possession-based approach meets Eibar's more defensive, direct play. The hosts generate more expected goals per match with 1.1 compared to Eibar's 0.95, yet they also concede significantly more, with an xGA of 1.6 against Eibar's 0.94. This defensive frailty could be their undoing, especially against a side that has mastered low-block defending and efficient counter-attacks. While Albacete's style might win them the possession battle, Eibar's ability to capitalize on defensive lapses poses a significant threat.

The model probabilities give both Albacete and Eibar a 36% chance of winning, reflecting a balanced contest on paper. However, the visitors' form tips the scales slightly in their favor. The expected goals suggest a tight affair, with Eibar marginally ahead at 1.25 to Albacete's 1.19. This aligns with the most likely scoreline predictions: a 1-1 draw at 13%, followed by a 0-1 Eibar win at 11%. The over 2.5 market is less promising at 44%, suggesting a cautious approach to goal predictions.

For those seeking value, look towards Eibar claiming another victory given their current streak and Albacete's defensive vulnerabilities. It's not a guarantee, but the numbers suggest Eibar's run could very well continue.

Albacete

Form LLDLL

League ranking xG #8xGA #19xT #12xP/match #19Points #21

Key players

Jose CorpasFxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
Victor San Bartolome PrietoFxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Fran GamezRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.29

Eibar

Form WWWWW

League ranking xG #16xGA #6xT #20xP/match #3Points #2

Key players

Jon BautistaFxG 0.39 · xT 0.02
Adu AresLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.11
Ander MadariagaCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.03

Match prediction: Albacete – Eibar

Predicted score matrix

Eibar →

Albacete →

0–09.2%

0–110.6%

0–26.8%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.2%

1–010.0%

1–113.4%

1–28.1%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–06.2%

2–17.7%

2–24.8%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.4%

3–13.0%

3–21.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.2%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,19–1,25

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

–

Over 2,544%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Eibar or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Eibar or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Jon Bautista Orgilles to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Mario Soberón Gutiérrez to score30%
Ander Madariaga Susaeta to be booked23%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Albacete	X	2 · Eibar
Betsafe	2.45	3.20	2.72
Betsson	2.45	3.20	2.72
Nordicbet	2.45	3.20	2.72

Odds updated 27 Sept, 16:35

Odds movement

1+2 %

40 %35 %

2.40 → 2.45

X0 %

31 %26 %

3.20 → 3.20

2-1 %

36 %31 %

2.75 → 2.72

Betsson · 2 recorded price levels · 26/09/2026 → 27/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Albacete 0Draw 1Eibar 3

Goals: 3–8 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

SD Eibar come into this round on 5 straight wins.
SD Eibar have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Albacete

Eibar

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Albacete (4–12)

Eibar (12–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Albacete

Eibar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Albacete

Eibar

The teams in numbers

Performance	Albacete	Eibar
Points	1	15
xPoints	8.4	9.9
xG per match	1.1	0.95
xGA per match	1.6	0.94
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.16

Playing style	Albacete	Eibar
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.48	0.23
xT per match	0.82	0.63
xTA per match	1.2	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	29	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.23
Entries into the box per match	13	8
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.73	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.7
Passes per match	329	286
Passes against per match	388	499
Switches of play per match	31.8	21.5
Long balls per match	35	29

Set pieces	Albacete	Eibar
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	5.2	3
Corners against per match	4.4	5.5
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.58

Other	Albacete	Eibar
Throw-in control	0.68	0.66

The goalkeepers	Diego Marino (Albacete)	Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar)
Saves	15	27
Save %	68%	87%
xG prevented	61%	84%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Albacete

Fixtures, form & tips

Eibar

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Albacete vs Eibar according to our model?

The model gives Eibar a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Albacete 36%, draw 28%, Eibar 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.