Updated several times a day

    På svenska

    Value bets today

    A value bet is not the most likely outcome — it is the outcome whose odds are too high for its probability. Here we list upcoming matches where the model sees positive expected value at some bookmaker, ranked by the size of the gap.

    Bets with positive expected value

    How it is calculated

    For every match, the model's probability of each outcome is compared with the best available odds. Expected value (EV) is probability times odds minus one: an EV of +8% means the bet is expected to return 1.08 per unit staked in the long run. Positive EV is no promise of a win in any single match — it is the edge over time.

    The model never guesses after the fact: every prediction is frozen before kick-off and graded openly once the match is played — see our track record.

    Value bets FAQ

    What is a value bet?

    A bet where the odds are higher than the true probability of the outcome justifies. If a team wins 40% of the time, fair odds are 2.50; if you get 2.80 you have a value bet — even though the team still loses more often than it wins.

    Why do different bookmakers appear in the list?

    Odds differ between bookmakers, and the value sits with whoever is highest on that particular outcome. We show the bookmaker with the largest gap to the model at the last update — always check the odds before betting, they move.

    How many value bets should I place?

    The edge per bet is small and the variance is large. Value betting works as a long-term strategy with many small stakes, not as occasional big bets. Only bet money you can afford to lose — 18+.

    18+ · Please gamble responsibly