01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Dundee FC to win46%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Scottish PremiershipDens Park, Dundee10°1,3 mm26 km/h
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Dundee FCLow block & directvs
KilmarnockLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Dundee FC (46%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.88 (+10 %)
Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock · Scottish Premiership
1 · Dundee FC 46%X 28%26% Kilmarnock · 2
46%
28%
26%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock (Scottish Premiership, Wednesday, 28 October 2026): Dundee FC win 46%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Dundee FC 1.70, Kilmarnock 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Dundee FC or draw 74%, Kilmarnock or draw 54%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.
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Analysis: Dundee FC – Kilmarnock
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: With Dundee FC and Kilmarnock lining up to face each other, the numbers suggest a tight match with a slight edge for the home side. The model gives Dundee a 46% chance of winning, compared to Kilmarnock's 26%, and the expected goals are 1.70 to 1.29 in favor of Dundee. Both clubs share a similar playing style, characterized by low defensive lines and direct play, which could lead to a more open game than their setups might suggest.
The most likely scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-0—highlight the potential for a close contest, though there's a notable 58% chance for over 2.5 goals. This is partly due to Dundee's ability to find the net in their last eight league outings, coupled with the high-scoring nature of recent meetings between these sides, averaging 3.5 goals. However, Dundee's stronger defensive metrics, with Kilmarnock conceding significantly more xGA per match (2.5 vs. Dundee's 1.7), could be pivotal in tilting the balance.
Historically, this fixture hasn't been entirely one-sided; the eight head-to-head clashes since 2023 show an even spread, with Kilmarnock actually holding a slight edge (2W 3D 3L for Dundee). Yet, Dundee's current league form, with 14 points compared to Kilmarnock's 8, reinforces their position as favorites. Still, the narrow margins in these games mean that Kilmarnock cannot be discounted entirely, particularly if they can capitalize on any defensive lapses from their hosts.
In betting terms, the most interesting angle appears to be the draw, offering value at odds of 3.65 with LeoVegas. Considering the model's 28% estimate for this outcome, there's a 3% edge. While a bright showing from Dundee seems likely, a share of the spoils might just be the cautious bettor's best play.
Dundee FCForm DLWWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #9xT #11xP/match #5Points #4
Key players
- Ashley HayFxG 0.53 · xT 0.08
- Callum JonesCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
- Ethan Billy HamiltonCAMxG 0.06 · xT -0.01
KilmarnockForm DWDLW
League ranking xG #12xGA #12xT #8xP/match #12Points #11
Key players
- Tom LoweryCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
- Greg KiltieRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.10
- Aaron TshibolaCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Dundee FC – Kilmarnock
Predicted score matrix
Kilmarnock →
Dundee FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.3%
0–16.1%
0–24.2%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–08.2%
1–111.3%
1–27.1%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–07.2%
2–19.4%
2–26.1%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.1%
3
3–04.1%
3–15.3%
3–23.4%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–02.6%
4+–13.3%
4+–22.2%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.2-07%
- 5.1-27%
Expected goals
1,70–1,29
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
114%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,542%
@2.35
Over 2,558%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Dundee FC to win46%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Joseph Anthony Westley to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals58%
- Joseph Anthony Westley to score22%
- Thomas Richard Lowery to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@3.88PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.70LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Dundee FC | X | 2 · Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.92 | EV+ 2% 3.60 | 3.55 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | EV+ 5% 3.70 | 3.45 |
| Nordicbet | 1.92 | EV+ 2% 3.60 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | EV+ 10% 3.88 | 3.62 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:35
Statistics
Head-to-head
8 matchesDundee FC 2Draw 3Kilmarnock 3
Goals: 13–15 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.5 goals per meeting on average.
- Dundee have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Dundee FC
Kilmarnock
Dundee FC (13–10)
Kilmarnock (10–20)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Dundee FC
Kilmarnock
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Dundee FC
Kilmarnock
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Dundee FC | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 8 |
| xPoints | 12.7 | 8.1 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| Playing style | Dundee FC | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.25 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 0.61 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 18 | 18 |
| Pass completion % | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 251 | 311 |
| Passes against per match | 465 | 450 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.6 | 25.4 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Dundee FC | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 6.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.6 |
| Other | Dundee FC | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Owen Olamidayo Goodman (Dundee FC) | Maksymilian Stryjek (Kilmarnock) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 38 | 26 |
| Save % | 79% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 47% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- St. Johnstone – Motherwell28 October 2026 20:45 CET
- St. Mirren – Hibernian28 October 2026 20:45 CET
- Celtic – Dundee United28 October 2026 20:45 CET
- Aberdeen – Falkirk28 October 2026 20:45 CET
- Hearts – Rangers28 October 2026 21:00 CET
- Dundee United – Hearts31 October 2026
- Hibernian – Dundee FC31 October 2026
- Rangers – Aberdeen31 October 2026
- Motherwell – St. Mirren31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock according to our model?
The model gives Dundee FC a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dundee FC 46%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Dundee FC vs Kilmarnock?
The model expects 1.70 goals (xG) for Dundee FC and 1.29 for Kilmarnock, 3.00 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Dundee FC or draw (1X) 74%, Kilmarnock or draw (X2) 54% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.