St. Johnstone vs Motherwell Prediction: Away win 41% (28 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership28 October 2026 20:45 CETMcDiarmid Park, Perth10°2,6 mm25 km/h

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St. JohnstonePossession & high press

MotherwellPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Motherwell (41%)

1 · St. Johnstone 31%X 28%41% Motherwell · 2

31%

28%

41%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for St. Johnstone vs Motherwell (Scottish Premiership, Wednesday, 28 October 2026): St. Johnstone win 31%, draw 28%, Motherwell win 41%. Expected goals (xG): St. Johnstone 1.37, Motherwell 1.57. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: St. Johnstone or draw 59%, Motherwell or draw 69%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.

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Analysis: St. Johnstone – Motherwell

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Motherwell's recent skid of five consecutive losses sets the stage for their clash against St. Johnstone, who have the advantage in points and expected points. Despite the visitors' poor form, the model leans towards Motherwell with a 41% win probability, highlighting the away side's potential to break their losing streak. This tension is compounded by both teams sharing a similar possession and high press style, possibly leading to a tight contest.

The expected goals suggest a slight edge for the visitors, with Motherwell at 1.57 against St. Johnstone's 1.37. This aligns with the head-to-head record since 2023, albeit from a small four-match sample, where the visitors have bested the hosts three times. The numbers imply a competitive match, with the most likely outcomes being a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-2 victory for Motherwell. With a 56% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood for both teams to score, goals could be on the cards.

For bettors seeking value, Motherwell is priced attractively with a 41% win probability against odds of 3.15 on Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a 28% edge. With their odds also at 3.0 on LeoVegas providing a 22% edge, this represents a calculated opportunity for those anticipating a Motherwell resurgence.

St. Johnstone

Form WLDWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #4xT #10xP/match #6Points #5

Key players

Matthew Colin FouldsLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
Zach MitchellCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Cheick Tiemoko DiabateCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11

Motherwell

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #10xT #5xP/match #10Points #10

Key players

Emmanuel LongeloLWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.27
Lukas FadingerCDMxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Alexander LowryCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: St. Johnstone – Motherwell

Predicted score matrix

Motherwell →

St. Johnstone →

0–05.6%

0–17.9%

0–26.5%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.9%

1–06.9%

1–111.7%

1–28.9%

1–34.6%

1–4+2.6%

2–05.0%

2–17.8%

2–26.1%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.8%

3–02.3%

3–13.6%

3–22.8%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.7%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-18%
5.1-07%

Expected goals

1,37–1,57

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

@2.04

Over 2,556%

@1.78EV+0%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Motherwell or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Motherwell or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Alexander Lowry to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Alexander Lowry to score26%
Dylan James Christopher Levitt to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Motherwell41% probability@2.66PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
2 · Motherwell41% probability@2.65LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
2 · Motherwell41% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · St. Johnstone	X	2 · Motherwell
Betsafe	2.52	3.30	EV+ 6% 2.62
LeoVegas	2.45	3.40	EV+ 8% 2.65
Nordicbet	2.52	3.30	EV+ 6% 2.62
Pinnacle	2.58	3.44	EV+ 8% 2.66

Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:35

Odds movement

10 %

39 %34 %

2.57 → 2.58

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.42 → 3.44

2-1 %

38 %33 %

2.69 → 2.66

Over 2,5-1 %

56 %51 %

1.79 → 1.78

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

St. Johnstone 1Draw 0Motherwell 3

Goals: 6–8 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Motherwell Football Club have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

St. Johnstone

Motherwell

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

St. Johnstone (11–11)

Motherwell (11–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

St. Johnstone

Motherwell

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

St. Johnstone

Motherwell

The teams in numbers

Performance	St. Johnstone	Motherwell
Points	12	8
xPoints	12.6	10.5
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.48

Playing style	St. Johnstone	Motherwell
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.47	0.57
xT per match	0.72	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	20	21
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.25
Entries into the box per match	10	15
Entries into the box against	15	17
Pass completion %	0.75	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.78
Passes per match	356	493
Passes against per match	417	361
Switches of play per match	19.5	29.9
Long balls per match	27	28

Set pieces	St. Johnstone	Motherwell
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	3.3	4.9
Corners against per match	7.1	5.9
xG per corner	0.06	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.6

Other	St. Johnstone	Motherwell
Throw-in control	0.74	0.82

The goalkeepers	Toby Peter Gary Steward (St. Johnstone)	Alexander Noah Paulsen (Motherwell)
Saves	39	35
Save %	81%	69%
xG prevented	64%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

St. Johnstone

Fixtures, form & tips

Motherwell

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins St. Johnstone vs Motherwell according to our model?

The model gives Motherwell a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Johnstone 31%, draw 28%, Motherwell 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in St. Johnstone vs Motherwell?

The model expects 1.37 goals (xG) for St. Johnstone and 1.57 for Motherwell, 2.94 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

St. Johnstone or draw (1X) 59%, Motherwell or draw (X2) 69% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.