Dundee United vs Hearts Prediction: Away win 47% (31 Oct 2026)

Scottish Premiership31 October 2026Tannadice Park, Dundee9°9 km/h

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Dundee UnitedCounter-attacks & crosses

HeartsPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Hearts (47%)

1 · Dundee United 28%X 25%47% Hearts · 2

28%

25%

47%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Dundee United vs Hearts (Scottish Premiership, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Dundee United win 28%, draw 25%, Hearts win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Dundee United 1.29, Hearts 1.62. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Dundee United or draw 53%, Hearts or draw 72%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Dundee United – Hearts

Oscar Nilsson · 26 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Hearts have the stronger underlying case, yet this looks tighter than a straightforward away win: the analysis points to a narrow visitors’ edge, 1-1 as the most likely scoreline, and Over 2.5 goals as the lean at 56%.

The table and process both favour the away side. Hearts have 19 points to Dundee United’s 15, while xPoints read 15.8 to 13.6. Their attacking edge is slim but real at 1.8 xG per match against 1.7, and the defensive gap matters more: Hearts concede 1.3 xGA per match, compared with 1.6 for the hosts. That is the profile of a deserved favourite, not an untouchable one.

United’s five-match unbeaten league run is the complication the basic rankings cannot dismiss. They are set up for counter attacks and crosses, a useful route against a possession-control side that will have more of the ball. Hearts have scored in 18 consecutive league matches, though, so the hosts’ recent resilience faces a team with a far more reliable scoring habit.

The head-to-head record since 2023 also leans away: seven meetings have produced 2W, 1D and 4L for United, with Hearts holding four wins to two. That is a separate signal from current form, and it supports the visitors without outweighing the hosts’ present unbeaten sequence. The score distribution captures the tension neatly: 1-1 lands at 12%, ahead of 1-2 at 9% and 0-1 at 8%.

Hearts are the rightful lean at 47% versus 28% for United, but the draw probability is still 25% and should temper any aggressive away-win stance. Both teams to score rates 59%, and the expected-goals total of 2.91 backs a match with openings rather than a shutout. The sharpest angle is Over 2.5 goals at 56%, with 1-1 the most likely exact score but 1-2 the away-win route.

Dundee United

Form DWWDW

League ranking xG #4xGA #6xT #3xP/match #5Points #4

Key players

Zidane Aamar IqbalCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
Lyall CameronCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.26
Jesse Carmichael RandallRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.33

Hearts

Form LDWLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #3xT #5xP/match #3Points #3

Key players

Harry MilneLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.26
Jordi AltenaRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
Malachi Michael Fagan-WalcottCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Dundee United – Hearts

Predicted score matrix

Hearts →

Dundee United →

0–05.8%

0–18.5%

0–27.1%

0–33.8%

0–4+2.2%

1–06.7%

1–111.7%

1–29.2%

1–35.0%

1–4+2.9%

2–04.5%

2–17.4%

2–26.0%

2–33.2%

2–4+1.9%

3–02.0%

3–13.2%

3–22.6%

3–31.4%

3–4+0.8%

4+–00.8%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.2-17%
5.0-27%

Expected goals

1,29–1,62

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,544%

–

Over 2,556%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Hearts to win47%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Hearts to win47%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Pierre Landry Kabore to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Pierre Landry Kabore to score27%
Tómas Bent Magnússon to be booked24%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Dundee United	X	2 · Hearts
LeoVegas	2.95	3.55	2.12

Odds updated 25 Oct, 19:36

Odds movement

10 %

34 %29 %

2.95 → 2.95

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.60 → 3.55

2+1 %

46 %41 %

2.10 → 2.12

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Dundee United 2Draw 1Hearts 4

Goals: 5–12 (⌀ 2,4)

Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.

Key facts

Hearts dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
Dundee United are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Hearts have scored in 18 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dundee United

Hearts

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Dundee United (14–14)

Hearts (22–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dundee United

Hearts

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dundee United

Hearts

The teams in numbers

Performance	Dundee United	Hearts
Points	15	19
xPoints	13.6	15.8
xG per match	1.7	1.8
xGA per match	1.6	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.29	0.29
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.33

Playing style	Dundee United	Hearts
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.46	0.59
xT per match	1.4	1.1
xTA per match	1.3	0.82
Won balls, offensive half	24	28
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.27
Entries into the box per match	16	14
Entries into the box against	15	11
Pass completion %	0.73	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.68
Passes per match	344	374
Passes against per match	347	322
Switches of play per match	33.8	40.2
Long balls per match	36	44

Set pieces	Dundee United	Hearts
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.09
Corners per match	6	6.7
Corners against per match	5.9	3.8
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.68

Other	Dundee United	Hearts
Throw-in control	0.75	0.78

The goalkeepers	Jack Walton (Dundee United)	Beau Reus (Hearts)
Saves	32	18
Save %	70%	58%
xG prevented	53%	29%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dundee United

Fixtures, form & tips

Hearts

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dundee United vs Hearts according to our model?

The model gives Hearts a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dundee United 28%, draw 25%, Hearts 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Dundee United vs Hearts?

The model expects 1.29 goals (xG) for Dundee United and 1.62 for Hearts, 2.92 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Dundee United or draw (1X) 53%, Hearts or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.