01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hibernian to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Scottish PremiershipSt Mirren Park, Paisley10°5,4 mm29 km/h
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St. MirrenPossession controlvs
HibernianPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Hibernian (49%)
St. Mirren vs Hibernian · Scottish Premiership
1 · St. Mirren 24%X 27%49% Hibernian · 2
24%
27%
49%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for St. Mirren vs Hibernian (Scottish Premiership, Wednesday, 28 October 2026): St. Mirren win 24%, draw 27%, Hibernian win 49%. Expected goals (xG): St. Mirren 1.23, Hibernian 1.65. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: St. Mirren or draw 51%, Hibernian or draw 76%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.
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Analysis: St. Mirren – Hibernian
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The text states "With odds of 2.05 on Hibernian to win at Bet365" — this specific betting odds figure is not supported by any data in the FACTS and appears fabricated. This claim should be removed.
Corrected text:
The seven head-to-head encounters between St. Mirren and Hibernian since 2023 reveal a perfectly balanced rivalry: two wins each and three draws. But while history might suggest parity, the current landscape paints a different picture. The hosts are struggling, having dropped their last five matches, a stark contrast to Hibernian's more favorable form. This recent downturn for St. Mirren weighs heavily, especially when combined with the models' numbers favoring the visitors.
The probability model leans toward Hibernian with a 49% chance of victory compared to the 24% for the home side. St. Mirren's control-heavy style may struggle against Hibernian's aggressive high press, a tactical clash likely to tilt in favor of the visitors given their higher expected goals (1.65) compared to the hosts' (1.23). The rain forecast and St. Mirren's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a tense, tightly contested affair. Yet, Hibernian's superior attacking metrics and pressing efficiency could exploit any lapse in concentration from their opponents.
Even though St. Mirren have managed to secure more points so far this season (10 vs. Hibernian's 7), the underlying xPoints reveal a different story, one where Hibernian holds the edge. Their lower expected goals against (1.5 to St. Mirren's 1.9) further underscores their defensive solidity. The models' most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-2 indicate a cautious optimism for goals despite the weather, with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood of both teams scoring.
The betting angle here narrows in on Hibernian's ability to capitalize on current form and stats, representing a value position given the confluence of recent form, expected goals, and tactical matchups in their favor.
St. MirrenForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #11xT #7xP/match #11Points #8
Key players
- Marcus Ebenezer FraserCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
- Ryan George CarrCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Declan JohnLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
HibernianForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #5xGA #5xT #6xP/match #4Points #12
Key players
- Grant HanleyCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
- Felix PasslackRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.30
- Adam MayorLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.23
Match prediction: St. Mirren – Hibernian
Predicted score matrix
Hibernian →
St. Mirren →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–19.0%
0–27.7%
0–34.2%
0–4+2.5%
1
1–06.6%
1–111.7%
1–29.4%
1–35.2%
1–4+3.1%
2
2–04.2%
2–17.0%
2–25.8%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.7%
3–12.9%
3–22.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,23–1,65
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.26EV+2%
Over 2,555%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hibernian to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Josh Campbell to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Josh Campbell to score25%
- Jacob Patrick John Devaney to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Hibernian49% probability@2.08LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.545% probability@2.26PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
- 2 · Hibernian49% probability@2.06PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · St. Mirren | X | 2 · Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas | 3.15 | 3.60 | EV+ 3% 2.08 |
| Nordicbet | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.31 | 3.72 | EV+ 2% 2.06 |
Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:35
Odds movement
1-2 %
31 %26 %
3.37 → 3.31
X+1 %
28 %23 %
3.70 → 3.72
20 %
49 %44 %
2.05 → 2.06
Over 2,5-1 %
60 %55 %
1.65 → 1.64
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 26/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
7 matchesSt. Mirren 2Draw 3Hibernian 2
Goals: 8–9 (⌀ 2,4)
Head-to-head based on Scottish Premiership data since 2023.
Key facts
- St. Mirren have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
St. Mirren
Hibernian
St. Mirren (9–17)
Hibernian (9–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
St. Mirren
Hibernian
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
St. Mirren
Hibernian
The teams in numbers
| Performance | St. Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 7 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 13.1 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | St. Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 0.91 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 369 | 386 |
| Passes against per match | 359 | 340 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.4 | 27.7 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 35 |
| Set pieces | St. Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 6.8 |
| Corners against per match | 6.6 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| Other | St. Mirren | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.82 |
| The goalkeepers | Jacob Anthony Chapman (St. Mirren) | Raphael Sallinger (Hibernian) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 31 | 34 |
| Save % | 65% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 43% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- St. Johnstone – Motherwell28 October 2026 20:45 CET
- Celtic – Dundee United28 October 2026 20:45 CET
- Dundee FC – Kilmarnock28 October 2026 20:45 CET
- Aberdeen – Falkirk28 October 2026 20:45 CET
- Hearts – Rangers28 October 2026 21:00 CET
- Dundee United – Hearts31 October 2026
- Hibernian – Dundee FC31 October 2026
- Rangers – Aberdeen31 October 2026
- Motherwell – St. Mirren31 October 2026 16:00 CET
Frequently asked questions
Who wins St. Mirren vs Hibernian according to our model?
The model gives Hibernian a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: St. Mirren 24%, draw 27%, Hibernian 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in St. Mirren vs Hibernian?
The model expects 1.23 goals (xG) for St. Mirren and 1.65 for Hibernian, 2.88 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
St. Mirren or draw (1X) 51%, Hibernian or draw (X2) 76% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.