FC Andorra vs Burgos Prediction: Home win 44% (26 Oct 2026)

Segunda División26 October 202616°20 km/h

Läs på svenska

FC AndorraPossession & high press

BurgosPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · FC Andorra (44%)Best value by the model: 2 · Burgos @ 3.82 (+7 %)

1 · FC Andorra 44%X 28%28% Burgos · 2

44%

28%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for FC Andorra vs Burgos (Segunda División, Monday, 26 October 2026): FC Andorra win 44%, draw 28%, Burgos win 28%. Expected goals (xG): FC Andorra 1.45, Burgos 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: FC Andorra or draw 72%, Burgos or draw 56%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: FC Andorra – Burgos

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

FC Andorra will be eyeing their knack for high-press possession as they square off against Burgos, who themselves prefer a more controlled approach. The numbers give a slight edge to the hosts, with a 44% probability of victory compared to Burgos’ 28%. Interestingly, both teams show a penchant for keeping the ball, yet it's Andorra's pressing game that might tip the balance in their favor.

Despite being lower in the points table, the hosts boast a more efficient xG tally, averaging 1.3 per match compared to the visitors’ 1.2, and a tighter defense with 1.1 xGA versus 1.2 for Burgos. This suggests a slightly more solid all-around performance on Andorra’s part, which the odds reflect. However, the head-to-head data since 2023, with only four matches played, shows a balanced record, slightly favoring Andorra with two wins to Burgos' one. Given the small sample size, it's less predictive than current form and expected goals.

The most probable scorelines—1-1, 1-0, and 2-1—indicate a low-scoring affair, with the model citing only a 49% chance for over 2.5 goals. Both teams to score is also a coin flip at 53%, suggesting defenses might edge out the attacks. The possession-based styles could lead to a tightly contested midfield battle, potentially stifling goal opportunities.

Value seekers might look to the away side. Burgos' odds of 3.95 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 3.85 with LeoVegas, reveal an enticing EV+ scenario, given the model's 28% win probability versus these offered odds. Such a discrepancy provides a noteworthy edge—11% with Betsafe and Nordicbet, 8% with LeoVegas—for those siding with the visitors to steal the show.

FC Andorra

Form LWDWL

League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #6xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Marc BombardoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.10
Marti VilaLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Marc Domènech CostaCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09

Burgos

Form WWLLW

League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #7xP/match #10Points #8

Key players

Sergio GonzalezCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
Jon Karrikaburu JaimerenaFxG 0.44 · xT 0.07
Grego SierraCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07

Match prediction: FC Andorra – Burgos

Predicted score matrix

Burgos →

FC Andorra →

0–07.7%

0–18.1%

0–24.9%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.3%

1–112.7%

1–27.2%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.7%

2–19.0%

2–25.2%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–03.7%

3–14.4%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,45–1,16

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.81

Over 2,549%

@2.08EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance FC Andorra or draw (1X)70%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance FC Andorra or draw (1X)70%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Jordi Cano Jiménez to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Jordi Cano Jiménez to score24%
José Gragera Amado to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Burgos28% probability@3.82PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
Over 2.549% probability@2.08PinnacleEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · FC Andorra	X	2 · Burgos
Betsafe	2.10	3.15	3.35
LeoVegas	2.12	3.20	3.35
Nordicbet	2.10	3.15	3.35
Pinnacle	2.12	3.28	EV+ 7% 3.82

Odds updated 26 Oct, 12:35

Odds movement

1+3 %

47 %42 %

2.06 → 2.12

X+1 %

32 %27 %

3.26 → 3.28

2+1 %

28 %23 %

3.78 → 3.82

Over 2,5+1 %

49 %44 %

2.05 → 2.08

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 24/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

FC Andorra 2Draw 1Burgos 1

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 1,2)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

FC Andorra

Burgos

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

FC Andorra (13–17)

Burgos (13–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

FC Andorra

Burgos

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

FC Andorra

Burgos

The teams in numbers

Performance	FC Andorra	Burgos
Points	10	17
xPoints	12.9	14.1
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.1	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.33	0.22

Playing style	FC Andorra	Burgos
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.67	0.42
xT per match	0.99	0.99
xTA per match	0.69	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.36	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.34	0.27
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	10	13
Pass completion %	0.79	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.72
Passes per match	421	345
Passes against per match	237	358
Switches of play per match	41	24.3
Long balls per match	42	36

Set pieces	FC Andorra	Burgos
xG from free kicks	0	0.08
Corners per match	4.6	4.1
Corners against per match	5	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.58

Other	FC Andorra	Burgos
Throw-in control	0.72	0.68

The goalkeepers	Pau López Sabata (FC Andorra)	Ander Cantero (Burgos)
Saves	11	33
Save %	50%	77%
xG prevented	28%	58%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

FC Andorra

Fixtures, form & tips

Burgos

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins FC Andorra vs Burgos according to our model?

The model gives FC Andorra a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Andorra 44%, draw 28%, Burgos 28%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in FC Andorra vs Burgos?

The model expects 1.45 goals (xG) for FC Andorra and 1.16 for Burgos, 2.62 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

FC Andorra or draw (1X) 72%, Burgos or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.