Córdoba vs Eibar Prediction: Home win 37% (24 Oct 2026)

Segunda División24 October 202616°7 km/h

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CórdobaPossession control

EibarLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Córdoba (37%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.25 (+12 %)

1 · Córdoba 37%X 31%32% Eibar · 2

37%

31%

32%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Córdoba vs Eibar (Segunda División, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Córdoba win 37%, draw 31%, Eibar win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Córdoba 1.44, Eibar 1.24. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Córdoba or draw 68%, Eibar or draw 63%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Córdoba – Eibar

Oscar Nilsson · 20 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The model suggests an intriguing clash between Córdoba and Eibar, with the hosts narrowly favored at 37% to win. The tension lies in their contrasting styles: Córdoba's possession play against Eibar's low block and direct counterattacks. Eibar's knack for finding the net, scoring in their last 17 league outings, threatens to disrupt any defensive plans Córdoba might have.

Despite the visitors' higher league points at 22 compared to Córdoba's 12, expected points tell a different story, indicating a narrower gap and suggesting Córdoba's performances have been underestimated on the scoreboard. The hosts' higher xG of 1.6 per match underlines their attacking potential, which could prove decisive against Eibar's slightly sturdier defense.

Goals might be at a premium, with the model predicting a 1-1 scoreline as the most likely outcome. The balance of expected goals, 1.44 for Córdoba and 1.24 for Eibar, supports a low-margin contest. The over/under line is finely poised at 50%, reflecting this uncertainty. However, the sharp angle here is the value on offer for an under 2.5 goals outcome. Odds of 2.2 with LeoVegas, and 2.18 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, present a worthwhile opportunity, given the model's 50% assessment of this scenario—an attractive 9-10% edge.

While the head-to-head record is limited and skews towards Eibar, the form lines and expected goals analysis give Córdoba a chance to assert their home advantage. A 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts feels the most plausible, with the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter minimal. Betting against goals, especially at the outlined odds, could be the smartest play.

Córdoba

Form WLWLW

League ranking xG #2xGA #16xT #2xP/match #8Points #15

Key players

Cristian Carracedo GarcíaRWxG 0.13 · xT 0.30
Ruben AlvesCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Isma RuizCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.04

Eibar

Form WWWLD

League ranking xG #10xGA #8xT #17xP/match #4Points #3

Key players

Anaitz ArbillaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Ander MadariagaCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
Adu AresRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Córdoba – Eibar

Predicted score matrix

Eibar →

Córdoba →

0–07.2%

0–18.1%

0–25.3%

0–32.2%

0–4+0.9%

1–09.5%

1–112.6%

1–27.6%

1–33.1%

1–4+1.3%

2–07.1%

2–18.8%

2–25.5%

2–32.3%

2–4+0.9%

3–03.4%

3–14.2%

3–22.6%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,44–1,24

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

07%

118%

225%

322%

415%

5+13%

Under 2,550%

@2.25EV+11%

Over 2,550%

@1.58

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Córdoba or draw (1X)68%
Under 3.5 goals72%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Córdoba or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Eder García Altuna to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Jon Guruzeta Rodríguez to score20%
Rubén González Alves to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.550% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+12%reference odds
Under 2.550% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
Under 2.550% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Córdoba	X	2 · Eibar
Betsafe	2.12	EV+ 7% 3.40	3.00
LeoVegas	2.12	EV+ 10% 3.50	3.00
Nordicbet	2.12	EV+ 7% 3.40	3.00

Odds updated 21 Oct, 21:37

Odds movement

1+1 %

45 %40 %

2.10 → 2.12

X0 %

30 %25 %

3.50 → 3.50

2-2 %

32 %27 %

3.05 → 3.00

LeoVegas · 20 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Córdoba 1Draw 1Eibar 2

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

Key facts

SD Eibar have scored in 17 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Córdoba

Eibar

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Córdoba (15–20)

Eibar (20–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Córdoba

Eibar

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Córdoba

Eibar

The teams in numbers

Performance	Córdoba	Eibar
Points	12	22
xPoints	14.2	15.9
xG per match	1.6	1.3
xGA per match	1.3	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.2

Playing style	Córdoba	Eibar
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.61	0.29
xT per match	1.2	0.82
xTA per match	0.83	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	27	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.23
Entries into the box per match	14	10
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.71
Passes per match	344	327
Passes against per match	252	438
Switches of play per match	27.5	25.4
Long balls per match	34	32

Set pieces	Córdoba	Eibar
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.03
Corners per match	4.9	3.4
Corners against per match	3.3	5.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.56
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.6

Other	Córdoba	Eibar
Throw-in control	0.74	0.71

The goalkeepers	Guilherme Fernandes (Córdoba)	Jonmi Magunagoitia (Eibar)
Saves	13	44
Save %	54%	80%
xG prevented	28%	57%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Córdoba

Fixtures, form & tips

Eibar

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Córdoba vs Eibar according to our model?

The model gives Córdoba a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Córdoba 37%, draw 31%, Eibar 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Córdoba vs Eibar?

The model expects 1.44 goals (xG) for Córdoba and 1.24 for Eibar, 2.68 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Córdoba or draw (1X) 68%, Eibar or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.