Sabadell vs CD Tenerife Prediction: Home win 45% (25 Oct 2026)

Segunda División25 October 202614°13 km/h

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SabadellPossession control

CD TenerifePossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sabadell (45%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.15 (+5 %)

1 · Sabadell 45%X 33%21% CD Tenerife · 2

45%

33%

21%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sabadell vs CD Tenerife (Segunda División, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Sabadell win 45%, draw 33%, CD Tenerife win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Sabadell 1.23, CD Tenerife 0.88. Most likely score: 1-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%. Double chance: Sabadell or draw 79%, CD Tenerife or draw 55%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sabadell – CD Tenerife

Oscar Nilsson · 20 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Sabadell may have the upper hand against CD Tenerife when they meet, but don't overlook the market's oversight on potential value in the draw. The numbers give the hosts a 45% chance of securing a win, yet the probability of a 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline each stands at 14%, indicating a tight contest. Both teams prefer controlling possession, which might result in a congested midfield and fewer clear chances for either side.

In terms of attack, Sabadell has shown more promise, averaging 1.3 xG per match compared to Tenerife's 0.77. This offensive edge is mirrored in their superior points tally of 16 versus 13 and reflected in their expected points as well. Defensively, Sabadell also holds an advantage with a lower xGA per match at 0.95 against Tenerife's 1.2, suggesting they might be more adept at shutting down Tenerife's already struggling attack.

The model suggests a low-scoring affair, with the probability of over 2.5 goals standing at just 35%. A goalless draw also looms as a possibility, rated at 12%. While Sabadell is favored to clinch it, the numbers see both a 1-0 victory and a 1-1 stalemate as equally probable. The conservative lean towards under 2.5 goals is justified given these dynamics.

Value-seekers should note the potential in betting on the draw. With odds at 3.15 on LeoVegas offering a 5% edge, this presents a compelling opportunity that stands out amongst the predictions. Although Sabadell's form favors them, the draw's value deserves attention if you're looking to exploit market inefficiencies.

Sabadell

Form WDDWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #2xT #13xP/match #1Points #10

Key players

Albert Orriols CerarolsCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.05
Quadri LiameedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Óscar Sanz NavalCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

CD Tenerife

Form LDLDD

League ranking xG #22xGA #11xT #22xP/match #14Points #12

Key players

Ignacio Gil de Pareja VicentLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
Christian Pierre Louis GomisFxG 0.16 · xT 0.07
José León BernalCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Sabadell – CD Tenerife

Predicted score matrix

CD Tenerife →

Sabadell →

0–012.5%

0–110.3%

0–24.7%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.4%

1–014.5%

1–113.5%

1–25.8%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.1%

2–18.1%

2–23.6%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.3%

3–03.7%

3–13.3%

3–21.5%

3–30.4%

3–4+0.1%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.0%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-114%
3.0-012%
4.0-110%
5.2-09%

Expected goals

1,23–0,88

Both teams to score

42%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,1

012%

125%

227%

319%

410%

Under 2,565%

@1.50

Over 2,535%

@2.48

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sabadell to win45%
Under 3.5 goals84%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sabadell to win45%
Under 2.5 goals65%
Joel Priego Borrego to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score42%
Over 2.5 goals35%
Enrique Gallego Puigsech to score22%
Jesus Alvarez Aguado to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw33% probability@3.15LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
X · Draw33% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
X · Draw33% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sabadell	X	2 · CD Tenerife
Betsafe	1.90	EV+ 2% 3.05	4.20
LeoVegas	1.90	EV+ 5% 3.15	4.10
Nordicbet	1.90	EV+ 2% 3.05	4.20

Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Sabadell win since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 2.08 to 1.90 (−9%).

1-9 %

49 %44 %

2.08 → 1.90

X+3 %

32 %27 %

3.05 → 3.15

2+14 %

26 %21 %

3.60 → 4.10

LeoVegas · 13 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sabadell

CD Tenerife

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sabadell (10–8)

CD Tenerife (12–14)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sabadell

CD Tenerife

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sabadell

CD Tenerife

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sabadell	CD Tenerife
Points	16	13
xPoints	17.2	13
xG per match	1.3	0.77
xGA per match	0.95	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.11
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.27

Playing style	Sabadell	CD Tenerife
Build-up efficiency	0.36	0.31
Field tilt	0.49	0.44
xT per match	0.85	0.56
xTA per match	0.71	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	35	27
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.32	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.32	0.2
Entries into the box per match	13	8
Entries into the box against	7	10
Pass completion %	0.63	0.72
Pass completion % under pressure	0.58	0.66
Passes per match	230	287
Passes against per match	357	441
Switches of play per match	16.9	25
Long balls per match	26	34

Set pieces	Sabadell	CD Tenerife
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	5.3	4.2
Corners against per match	3.2	3.4
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.45	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.59

Other	Sabadell	CD Tenerife
Throw-in control	0.62	0.68

The goalkeepers	Diego Licinio Lázaro Fuoli (Sabadell)	Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife)
Saves	24	19
Save %	75%	58%
xG prevented	43%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sabadell

Fixtures, form & tips

CD Tenerife

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sabadell vs CD Tenerife according to our model?

The model gives Sabadell a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sabadell 45%, draw 33%, CD Tenerife 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 35% and under at 65%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 42% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sabadell vs CD Tenerife?

The model expects 1.23 goals (xG) for Sabadell and 0.88 for CD Tenerife, 2.11 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sabadell or draw (1X) 79%, CD Tenerife or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 67%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.