Cádiz vs Ceuta Prediction: Home win 39% (25 Oct 2026)

Segunda División25 October 202618°13 km/h

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CádizPossession control

CeutaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Cádiz (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Ceuta @ 3.80 (+25 %)

1 · Cádiz 39%X 28%33% Ceuta · 2

39%

28%

33%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cádiz vs Ceuta (Segunda División, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Cádiz win 39%, draw 28%, Ceuta win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Cádiz 1.45, Ceuta 1.14. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Cádiz or draw 67%, Ceuta or draw 61%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Cádiz – Ceuta

Marcus Johansson · 20 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The head-to-head record between Cádiz and Ceuta since 2023 is limited, with just two matches played — a draw and a win for Ceuta. While this is a small sample size and doesn't decisively predict future outcomes, it does hint at a competitive dynamic between these two sides. As we step into this match, the hosts, Cádiz, show a slight advantage in both points and expected points, suggesting they have been more consistent over the season. However, Ceuta's counter-attacking style, which thrives on crossing, could pose a real challenge to Cádiz’s possession-centric approach.

Diving into the numbers, Cádiz’s expected goals per match stand at 1.1, slightly lower than Ceuta's 1.4. This suggests Ceuta may create better chances despite having fewer points. Cádiz counters this with a more stable defense, averaging 1.1 expected goals against per match compared to Ceuta's 1.5. The match could very well hinge on how effectively Cádiz can control the game against Ceuta's likely strategy of soaking up pressure and breaking quickly.

The model sees a tight encounter, with a 39% chance of a home win and a 33% chance for the visitors. Most probable scorelines are 1-1 and 1-0, underlining the likelihood of a close contest. With both teams projected to score, albeit narrowly, the over 2.5 goals market sits at 48%, suggesting a lean towards a lower scoring affair, but not dismissively so. The 52% on both teams to score further hints at the potential for each side finding the net at least once.

For those seeking value, Ceuta presents an intriguing opportunity. The odds of 3.8 offered by Betsafe and Nordicbet, as well as 3.7 with LeoVegas, represent a significant edge over the model's assessment. This 25% edge with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 22% with LeoVegas, stands out as the sharpest angle in a match where the margins appear finely balanced.

Cádiz

Form LDWLL

League ranking xG #17xGA #5xT #19xP/match #12Points #20

Key players

Javi CastroCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Vladyslav KopotunFxG 0.33 · xT 0.17
Manuel Fernández ArroyoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04

Ceuta

Form DWDLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #19xT #4xP/match #19Points #21

Key players

Alejandro Camacho RamirezLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.16
Jordi Escobar FernandezFxG 0.48 · xT 0.08
Marino IllescasCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Cádiz – Ceuta

Predicted score matrix

Ceuta →

Cádiz →

0–07.9%

0–18.2%

0–24.9%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.5%

1–112.8%

1–27.1%

1–32.7%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.9%

2–19.0%

2–25.1%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.8%

3–14.3%

3–22.5%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.9%

4+–12.2%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.2-08%

Expected goals

1,45–1,14

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.88

Over 2,548%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Cádiz or draw (1X)71%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Cádiz or draw (1X)71%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Antonio José Cordero Campillo to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Jordi Escobar Fernandez to score25%
Marc-Olivier Doué Séné to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Ceuta33% probability@3.80BetsafeEV+25%reference odds
2 · Ceuta33% probability@3.80NordicbetEV+25%reference odds
2 · Ceuta33% probability@3.70LeoVegasEV+22%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cádiz	X	2 · Ceuta
Betsafe	1.88	3.35	EV+ 25% 3.80
LeoVegas	1.90	3.40	EV+ 22% 3.70
Nordicbet	1.88	3.35	EV+ 25% 3.80

Odds updated 21 Oct, 17:37

Odds movement

1+4 %

52 %47 %

1.83 → 1.90

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.50 → 3.40

2-4 %

26 %21 %

3.85 → 3.70

LeoVegas · 13 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Cádiz 0Draw 1Ceuta 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cádiz

Ceuta

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cádiz (11–13)

Ceuta (9–22)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cádiz

Ceuta

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cádiz

Ceuta

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cádiz	Ceuta
Points	7	5
xPoints	13.6	11.9
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.1	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.2	0.44

Playing style	Cádiz	Ceuta
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.29
Field tilt	0.47	0.46
xT per match	0.75	1
xTA per match	0.79	1
Won balls, offensive half	24	26
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.21
Entries into the box per match	10	12
Entries into the box against	10	11
Pass completion %	0.78	0.74
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.68
Passes per match	387	324
Passes against per match	357	337
Switches of play per match	25.3	21.1
Long balls per match	29	26

Set pieces	Cádiz	Ceuta
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	4.7	6.1
Corners against per match	4.5	2.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.07
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.49	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.56

Other	Cádiz	Ceuta
Throw-in control	0.64	0.66

The goalkeepers	Jokin Ezkieta (Cádiz)	Guillermo Vallejo (Ceuta)
Saves	28	17
Save %	76%	53%
xG prevented	59%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cádiz

Fixtures, form & tips

Ceuta

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cádiz vs Ceuta according to our model?

The model gives Cádiz a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cádiz 39%, draw 28%, Ceuta 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Cádiz vs Ceuta?

The model expects 1.45 goals (xG) for Cádiz and 1.14 for Ceuta, 2.59 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Cádiz or draw (1X) 67%, Ceuta or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.