01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Las Palmas to win67%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Segunda División23°0,6 mm14 km/h
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Las PalmasPossession controlvs
Real Sociedad BLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Las Palmas (67%)
Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad B · Segunda División
1 · Las Palmas 67%X 19%14% Real Sociedad B · 2
67%
19%
14%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad B (Segunda División, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Las Palmas win 67%, draw 19%, Real Sociedad B win 14%. Expected goals (xG): Las Palmas 1.93, Real Sociedad B 0.96. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Las Palmas or draw 86%, Real Sociedad B or draw 33%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Las Palmas – Real Sociedad B
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Las Palmas' penchant for possession control faces a stern test against Real Sociedad B's direct approach. Despite the visitors' recent losing streak of five games, they present an intriguing tactical challenge to the hosts. Las Palmas have shown resilience in head-to-head encounters, albeit from a limited sample of two games since 2023, which they've approached without a loss. However, the focus here should rest more on the current form and expected goals rather than a scant past record.
The model suggests a strong lean towards Las Palmas, assigning them a 67% chance to claim victory. This probability starkly contrasts with Real Sociedad B’s meager 14%, reflecting the disparity in form. The most likely scorelines highlight a narrow edge, with 1-1 and 1-0 both sitting at 11% and 10%, respectively. Yet, it's worth noting that despite Las Palmas' edge in possession and lower expected goals against (xGA) per match at 1.2, Real Sociedad B surprisingly have a higher expected goals (xG) per match at 1.2 compared to the hosts' 0.8.
This mismatch between possession dominance and xG suggests that Las Palmas may struggle to convert their control into tangible scoring opportunities, a factor that could keep Real Sociedad B in the match longer than expected. However, the visitors' defensive frailties—evident in their 1.7 xGA per match—could be their undoing.
The betting market offers an enticing opportunity for those siding with Las Palmas. With odds of 1.98 at LeoVegas and 1.95 at both Betsafe and Nordicbet, all showing significant value based on the model's 67% win probability, an EV+ play is clear for the home side. As the evening unfolds, expect a tight affair leaning towards a 1-0 or 2-0 victory for the hosts, with the over/under 2.5 goals line edging slightly towards the over at 55%. The sharpest angle remains backing Las Palmas at favorable odds, seizing the value while it's available.
Las PalmasForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #21xGA #13xT #20xP/match #21Points #16
Key players
- Kirian RodriguezCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
- Valentín Alejandro PezzolesiRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.01
- Iván Jaime PajueloLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.04
Real Sociedad BForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #21xT #16xP/match #17Points #19
Key players
- Arkaitz MariezkurrenaRWxG 0.20 · xT 0.02
- Gorka CarreraFxG 0.15 · xT 0.01
- Gorka GorosabelCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Las Palmas – Real Sociedad B
Predicted score matrix
Real Sociedad B →
Las Palmas →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–15.0%
0–22.5%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–010.4%
1–110.6%
1–24.9%
1–31.6%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.4%
2–19.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–06.7%
3–16.4%
3–23.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–05.0%
4+–14.8%
4+–22.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,93–0,96
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
@2.00
Over 2,555%
@1.73
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Las Palmas to win67%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Taisei Miyashiro to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Taisei Miyashiro to score32%
- Kazunari Kita to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Las Palmas67% probability@1.98LeoVegasEV+33%reference odds
- 1 · Las Palmas67% probability@1.95BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
- 1 · Las Palmas67% probability@1.95NordicbetEV+31%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Las Palmas | X | 2 · Real Sociedad B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 31% 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 33% 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 31% 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 02:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Real Sociedad B win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 3.90 to 3.40 (−13%).
1+10 %
55 %45 %
1.80 → 1.98
X-4 %
31 %21 %
3.55 → 3.40
2-13 %
30 %20 %
3.90 → 3.40
LeoVegas · 22 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesLas Palmas 1Draw 1Real Sociedad B 0
Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Segunda División data since 2023.
Key facts
- Real Sociedad B have lost 5 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Las Palmas
Real Sociedad B
Las Palmas (13–19)
Real Sociedad B (14–21)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Las Palmas
Real Sociedad B
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Las Palmas
Real Sociedad B
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Las Palmas | Real Sociedad B |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 8 |
| xPoints | 10.8 | 12.1 |
| xG per match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Las Palmas | Real Sociedad B |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 0.98 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 20 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 384 | 295 |
| Passes against per match | 373 | 414 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.4 | 26.6 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Las Palmas | Real Sociedad B |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| Other | Las Palmas | Real Sociedad B |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | José Antonio Caro Díaz (Las Palmas) | Aitor Fraga (Real Sociedad B) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 31 |
| Save % | 61% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 31% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Granada – Real Valladolid23 October 2026
- Almería – Real Oviedo24 October 2026
- Córdoba – Eibar24 October 2026
- Leganés – Mallorca24 October 2026
- Girona – Celta Fortuna24 October 2026
- Albacete – Eldense25 October 2026
- Castellon – Sporting Gijón25 October 2026
- Cádiz – Ceuta25 October 2026
- Sabadell – CD Tenerife25 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad B according to our model?
The model gives Las Palmas a 67% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Las Palmas 67%, draw 19%, Real Sociedad B 14%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Las Palmas vs Real Sociedad B?
The model expects 1.93 goals (xG) for Las Palmas and 0.96 for Real Sociedad B, 2.89 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Las Palmas or draw (1X) 86%, Real Sociedad B or draw (X2) 33% and no draw (12) 81%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.