Leganés vs Mallorca Prediction: Away win 51% (24 Oct 2026)

Segunda División24 October 202613°11 km/h

Läs på svenska

LeganésBalanced & physical

MallorcaPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Mallorca (51%)

1 · Leganés 22%X 27%51% Mallorca · 2

22%

27%

51%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Leganés vs Mallorca (Segunda División, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Leganés win 22%, draw 27%, Mallorca win 51%. Expected goals (xG): Leganés 0.99, Mallorca 1.47. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Leganés or draw 49%, Mallorca or draw 78%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Leganés – Mallorca

Marcus Johansson · 20 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Mallorca holds a definitive edge with a 51% probability of victory, according to the model, which suggests that they are more likely to come away with the points in this encounter. Despite a small sample size regarding head-to-head matches, recent form weighs heavily in the visitors' favor. Leganés is struggling, having lost their last four matches, while Mallorca has accumulated a solid 18 points, compared to the hosts' 11.

Tactically, Leganés' balanced and physical approach might face difficulties against Mallorca's possession style and high press. The expected goals model also tips the scale in favor of Mallorca, forecasting 1.47 goals for the visitors, in contrast to the hosts' 0.99. This underlines the defensive vulnerabilities of Leganés, who have an xGA of 1.7 per match, compared to Mallorca's more robust 1.1.

The statistical likelihood of a 1-1 or 0-1 scoreline points to a closely contested match, yet the model's lean towards a Mallorca victory cannot be overlooked. The 45% probability of over 2.5 goals occurring suggests a cautious approach to expecting an open game, while both teams to score stands at a near-even 49%. Given these figures, a low-scoring affair seems plausible, with the under 2.5 goals scenario holding a slight edge.

From a betting perspective, the value lies with Mallorca. With odds of 2.25 at LeoVegas and 2.22 at both Betsafe and Nordicbet, the model prices the away win probability at 51%, offering a notable edge of 13-14%. These odds reflect a valuable opportunity for those looking to capitalize on Mallorca's favorable position and current form.

Leganés

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #19xGA #22xT #12xP/match #20Points #17

Key players

Ismaël Seifallah GharbiFxG 0.18 · xT 0.15
Alejandro San Cristóbal SánchezLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Naim GarciaRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11

Mallorca

Form WLDWD

League ranking xG #16xGA #6xT #21xP/match #13Points #6

Key players

Martin ValjentCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.07
Antonio RailloCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Adrian Fuentes GonzalezFxG 0.46 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Leganés – Mallorca

Predicted score matrix

Mallorca →

Leganés →

0–08.9%

0–112.2%

0–29.2%

0–34.5%

0–4+2.3%

1–08.1%

1–112.8%

1–29.1%

1–34.5%

1–4+2.3%

2–04.2%

2–16.2%

2–24.5%

2–32.2%

2–4+1.1%

3–01.4%

3–12.0%

3–21.5%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-29%
4.1-29%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

0,99–1,47

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@1.64

Over 2,545%

@2.15

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Mallorca to win51%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Mallorca to win51%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Adrian Fuentes Gonzalez to score33%
Miguel Ángel Atienza Villa to be booked19%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Mallorca51% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
2 · Mallorca51% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
2 · Mallorca51% probability@2.22NordicbetEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Leganés	X	2 · Mallorca
Betsafe	3.10	3.10	EV+ 13% 2.22
LeoVegas	3.10	3.15	EV+ 14% 2.25
Nordicbet	3.10	3.10	EV+ 13% 2.22

Odds updated 21 Oct, 16:37

Odds movement

1+2 %

32 %27 %

3.05 → 3.10

X+2 %

32 %27 %

3.10 → 3.15

2-2 %

44 %39 %

2.30 → 2.25

LeoVegas · 16 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

CD Leganes have lost 4 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Leganés

Mallorca

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Leganés (6–15)

Mallorca (12–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Leganés

Mallorca

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Leganés

Mallorca

The teams in numbers

Performance	Leganés	Mallorca
Points	11	18
xPoints	11.1	13.1
xG per match	1	1.1
xGA per match	1.7	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.3
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.19

Playing style	Leganés	Mallorca
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.3
Field tilt	0.33	0.57
xT per match	0.91	0.67
xTA per match	1.4	0.7
Won balls, offensive half	20	25
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.24
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	15	10
Pass completion %	0.76	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.74
Passes per match	319	405
Passes against per match	424	333
Switches of play per match	20	17.2
Long balls per match	27	26

Set pieces	Leganés	Mallorca
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.04
Corners per match	3.2	4.9
Corners against per match	5.9	4.3
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.55	0.53

Other	Leganés	Mallorca
Throw-in control	0.69	0.67

The goalkeepers	Luca Zinedine Zidane Fernández (Leganés)	Arnau Tenas Ureña (Mallorca)
Saves	32	29
Save %	76%	88%
xG prevented	57%	61%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Leganés

Fixtures, form & tips

Mallorca

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Leganés vs Mallorca according to our model?

The model gives Mallorca a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Leganés 22%, draw 27%, Mallorca 51%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Leganés vs Mallorca?

The model expects 0.99 goals (xG) for Leganés and 1.47 for Mallorca, 2.46 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Leganés or draw (1X) 49%, Mallorca or draw (X2) 78% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.