01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Napoli to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Serie AU-Power Stadium, Monza13°5 km/h
Läs på svenska
MonzaLow block & directvs
NapoliBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Napoli (49%)Best value by the model: 1 · Monza @ 4.50 (+24 %)
Monza vs Napoli · Serie A
1 · Monza 28%X 23%49% Napoli · 2
28%
23%
49%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Monza vs Napoli (Serie A, Wednesday, 28 October 2026): Monza win 28%, draw 23%, Napoli win 49%. Expected goals (xG): Monza 1.30, Napoli 1.64. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Monza or draw 51%, Napoli or draw 72%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.
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Analysis: Monza – Napoli
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
A striking 8% edge appears in the betting market for Monza at odds of 3.9 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, despite the visitors being favored with a 49% win probability. The hosts, known for their low defensive setup and direct style, have found the net in 8 consecutive league matches. This attacking consistency could challenge Napoli's balanced and physical approach, which leans heavily on their slightly superior xG per match of 2.0 compared to the hosts' 1.4.
The small head-to-head sample shows Napoli winning both previous encounters, but the more telling factor might be the expected goals: Monza 1.30 to Napoli's 1.64. The expected outcome skews towards a low-margin victory for the visitors, with the most likely scorelines being 1-1 and 1-2. However, the statistical lean towards Napoli is not overwhelming, especially given Monza's recent scoring streak, even though Napoli hold a slight edge in xPoints.
With the over 2.5 goals probability at 56%, and both teams likely to score at 59%, a 1-1 or 1-2 outcome seems probable. Yet, the value bet beckons from the sidelines: Monza at 3.9 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, given the underdogs' 28% chance to win—reflecting a solid opportunity against the odds.
MonzaForm LWLWL
League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #10xP/match #7Points #14
Key players
- Samuele BirindelliRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
- Gustavo Miguel Pereira de Sousa VarelaFxG 0.44 · xT 0.07
- Eddy KouadioCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
NapoliForm LWDWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #4xP/match #4Points #10
Key players
- Amir RrahmaniCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
- Leonardo SpinazzolaLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.21
- Rafa MarinCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Monza – Napoli
Predicted score matrix
Napoli →
Monza →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.6%
0–18.4%
0–27.1%
0–33.9%
0–4+2.3%
1
1–06.6%
1–111.6%
1–29.2%
1–35.0%
1–4+3.0%
2
2–04.5%
2–17.3%
2–26.0%
2–33.3%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–01.9%
3–13.2%
3–22.6%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-17%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,30–1,64
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.13
Over 2,556%
@1.73
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Napoli to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Rasmus Winther Højlund to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- Rasmus Winther Højlund to score25%
- Eddy Nda Konan Kouadio to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Monza28% probability@4.50NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
- 1 · Monza28% probability@4.45BetsafeEV+23%reference odds
- 1 · Monza28% probability@4.40LeoVegasEV+21%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Monza | X | 2 · Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 23% 4.45 | 3.90 | 1.72 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 21% 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.75 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 24% 4.50 | 3.95 | 1.75 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 07:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Napoli win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 1.88 to 1.75 (−7%).
1+13 %
28 %18 %
3.90 → 4.40
X+7 %
30 %20 %
3.65 → 3.90
2-7 %
56 %46 %
1.88 → 1.75
Over 2,5+1 %
60 %50 %
1.68 → 1.70
LeoVegas · 28 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesMonza 0Draw 0Napoli 2
Goals: 0–3 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- Monza have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Monza
Napoli
Monza (15–18)
Napoli (10–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Monza
Napoli
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Monza
Napoli
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 7 | 10 |
| xPoints | 11.7 | 11.9 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 328 | 448 |
| Passes against per match | 421 | 387 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.7 | 36.7 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 6.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.66 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.63 |
| Other | Monza | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Noel Max Joachim Törnqvist (Monza) | Alex Meret (Napoli) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 20 | 15 |
| Save % | 74% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 69% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Monza vs Napoli according to our model?
The model gives Napoli a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monza 28%, draw 23%, Napoli 49%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Monza vs Napoli?
The model expects 1.30 goals (xG) for Monza and 1.64 for Napoli, 2.93 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Monza or draw (1X) 51%, Napoli or draw (X2) 72% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.