Atalanta vs Frosinone Prediction: Home win 55% (25 Oct 2026)

Serie A25 October 2026Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo11°7 km/h

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AtalantaBalanced & physical

FrosinoneLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Atalanta (55%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 6.43 (+24 %)

1 · Atalanta 55%X 23%21% Frosinone · 2

55%

23%

21%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Atalanta vs Frosinone (Serie A, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Atalanta win 55%, draw 23%, Frosinone win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Atalanta 1.97, Frosinone 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Atalanta or draw 79%, Frosinone or draw 45%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Atalanta – Frosinone

Anna Karlsson · 20 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The tension in this clash revolves around Atalanta's balanced approach and Frosinone’s direct style. Despite Atalanta's slight edge in win probability at 55%, the real intrigue lies in the expected goals: 1.97 for Atalanta against Frosinone's 1.05. This suggests a home side leaning on their physical play to secure a win, yet it's Frosinone who has been outperforming on points this season, with 13 to Atalanta's 9. The visitors' ability to translate their directness into points could complicate the hosts' evening.

Atalanta's form, with an xG per match of 1.1, suggests a struggle to fully capitalize on their chances. In contrast, Frosinone’s 1.5 xG per match indicates a more effective conversion of opportunities, highlighting a potential vulnerability in Atalanta's defense, which concedes an xGA of 2.0 per match. This paints a picture of a contest where Frosinone, despite being underdogs, could exploit the hosts' defensive lapses.

The model suggests a strong possibility for a close scoreline, with 1-1 and 2-1 both at 10% likelihood. While the over 2.5 goals scenario is favored at 58%, the under 2.5 provides a compelling angle given the value opportunities. The odds for under 2.5 at 2.95 with Betsafe present a 23% edge, making it a tempting proposition.

With both teams expected to score at 56%, a 2-1 victory for Atalanta seems plausible, balancing the hosts' home advantage and defensive frailty. However, bettors should note the significant value in the under 1.5 goals bet at 6.43 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, carrying a 24% edge. This suggests a lower-scoring affair is not out of the question, underscoring the unpredictability in a match where Atalanta's and Frosinone's strengths and weaknesses sharply collide.

Atalanta

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #13xP/match #20Points #12

Key players

Nikola KrstovićFxG 0.53 · xT 0.10
Odilon KossounouCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
Gianluca ScamaccaFxG 0.11 · xT 0.09

Frosinone

Form WDWLW

League ranking xG #7xGA #18xT #15xP/match #11Points #6

Key players

Fares GhedjemisRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.17
Antonio RaimondoFxG 0.69 · xT 0.01
Giacomo CaloCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Atalanta – Frosinone

Predicted score matrix

Frosinone →

Atalanta →

0–05.2%

0–14.8%

0–22.7%

0–30.9%

0–4+0.3%

1–09.3%

1–110.4%

1–25.3%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.5%

2–19.9%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–06.2%

3–16.5%

3–23.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.4%

4+–04.8%

4+–15.1%

4+–22.7%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-110%
3.2-09%
4.1-09%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

1,97–1,05

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.95EV+23%

Over 2,558%

@1.41

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Atalanta to win55%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Atalanta to win55%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Nikola Krstović to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Nikola Krstović to score28%
Patrizio Masini to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.519% probability@6.43BetsafeEV+24%reference odds
Under 1.519% probability@6.43NordicbetEV+24%reference odds
Under 2.542% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+23%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Atalanta	X	2 · Frosinone
Betsafe	1.80	4.10	3.90
LeoVegas	EV+ 1% 1.83	4.10	3.80
Nordicbet	1.80	4.10	3.90

Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Frosinone win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 4.60 to 3.80 (−17%).

1+12 %

60 %50 %

1.64 → 1.83

X-5 %

28 %18 %

4.33 → 4.10

2-17 %

28 %18 %

4.60 → 3.80

Over 2,5-1 %

71 %61 %

1.42 → 1.40

LeoVegas · 34 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Atalanta

Frosinone

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Atalanta (10–11)

Frosinone (13–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Atalanta

Frosinone

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Atalanta

Frosinone

The teams in numbers

Performance	Atalanta	Frosinone
Points	9	13
xPoints	6.4	9.5
xG per match	1.1	1.5
xGA per match	2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.1	0.27
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.14	0.34

Playing style	Atalanta	Frosinone
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.45	0.46
xT per match	0.98	0.88
xTA per match	1.5	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	20	27
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.19	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.15	0.24
Entries into the box per match	13	14
Entries into the box against	16	16
Pass completion %	0.82	0.68
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.63
Passes per match	419	234
Passes against per match	507	343
Switches of play per match	21.4	13.3
Long balls per match	24	21

Set pieces	Atalanta	Frosinone
xG from free kicks	0	0.04
Corners per match	3.4	5.3
Corners against per match	5	6.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.66
First touch, defensive corners %	0.31	0.48

Other	Atalanta	Frosinone
Throw-in control	0.79	0.67

The goalkeepers	Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta)	Lorenzo Palmisani (Frosinone)
Saves	31	30
Save %	74%	77%
xG prevented	52%	51%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Atalanta

Fixtures, form & tips

Frosinone

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Atalanta vs Frosinone according to our model?

The model gives Atalanta a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Atalanta 55%, draw 23%, Frosinone 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Atalanta vs Frosinone?

The model expects 1.97 goals (xG) for Atalanta and 1.05 for Frosinone, 3.02 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Atalanta or draw (1X) 79%, Frosinone or draw (X2) 45% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.