Cagliari vs Bologna Prediction: Away win 46% (24 Oct 2026)

Serie A24 October 2026Unipol Domus, Cagliari18°23 km/h

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CagliariLow block & direct

BolognaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Bologna (46%)

1 · Cagliari 25%X 29%46% Bologna · 2

25%

29%

46%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cagliari vs Bologna (Serie A, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Cagliari win 25%, draw 29%, Bologna win 46%. Expected goals (xG): Cagliari 1.07, Bologna 1.34. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Cagliari or draw 54%, Bologna or draw 75%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Cagliari – Bologna

Oscar Nilsson · 20 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Bologna enters the clash with Cagliari boasting favorable odds and a solid historical edge. The visitors have dominated recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last four encounters. Yet, Cagliari's home advantage has translated into a better points tally this season, signaling a potential for unpredictability. However, Bologna's xPoints of 11.4, compared to Cagliari's 8.7, suggest that the visitors have been the more effective side when it comes to generating quality chances.

Expect a match shaped by contrasting styles: Cagliari's low defensive setup aims to frustrate, while Bologna's balanced, physical approach could crack open defenses. With an expected goals count of 1.34 for Bologna against Cagliari's 1.07, the visitors are slightly more likely to find the back of the net. The tight spread in the most likely scorelines—1-1 at 13% and 0-1 at 12%—indicates a close, possibly cagey affair. Both teams are just shy of a coin flip for both scoring, pegged at 49%.

The over/under 2.5 goals market leans slightly towards under, at 57%, which aligns with the structured nature of Cagliari's defensive tactics and Bologna's preference for a measured game. While Cagliari has a slight points lead, Bologna's superior xG and xGA figures make them the more convincing side in terms of longer-term form and quality metrics.

For bettors hunting value, Bologna's odds on the away win at 2.5 with LeoVegas stand out, given a model rating of 46% (a 14% edge). With a clear analytical lean toward the visitors, this represents a strategic opportunity to capitalize on what appears to be a market inefficiency.

Cagliari

Form WWWDL

League ranking xG #18xGA #13xT #17xP/match #14Points #7

Key players

Alessandro RomanoCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
Yerry MinaCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
Paul MendyFxG 0.27 · xT 0.07

Bologna

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #18xP/match #6Points #15

Key players

Lewis FergusonCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
Nicolò CasaleCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
Riccardo OrsoliniRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: Cagliari – Bologna

Predicted score matrix

Bologna →

Cagliari →

0–09.4%

0–111.6%

0–28.0%

0–33.6%

0–4+1.6%

1–09.3%

1–113.3%

1–28.6%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.2%

2–16.9%

2–24.6%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.8%

3–12.5%

3–21.7%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.6%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-112%
3.0-09%
4.1-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,07–1,34

Both teams to score

49%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,557%

@1.70

Over 2,543%

@2.27

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bologna to win46%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bologna to win46%
Under 2.5 goals57%
Roberto Piccoli to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score49%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Paul Mendy to score31%
Torbjørn Lysaker Heggem to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Bologna46% probability@2.53PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
2 · Bologna46% probability@2.50LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
2 · Bologna46% probability@2.42BetsafeEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cagliari	X	2 · Bologna
Betsafe	3.15	3.05	EV+ 10% 2.42
LeoVegas	2.95	3.10	EV+ 14% 2.50
Nordicbet	3.15	3.05	EV+ 10% 2.42
Pinnacle	3.29	2.96	EV+ 15% 2.53

Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:54

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Cagliari 0Draw 1Bologna 3

Goals: 1–6 (⌀ 1,8)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cagliari

Bologna

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cagliari (6–7)

Bologna (6–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cagliari

Bologna

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cagliari

Bologna

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cagliari	Bologna
Points	13	5
xPoints	8.7	11.4
xG per match	0.99	1.4
xGA per match	1.6	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.13

Playing style	Cagliari	Bologna
Build-up efficiency	0.27	0.29
Field tilt	0.26	0.44
xT per match	0.8	0.8
xTA per match	1.6	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	18	16
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.16	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	21	15
Pass completion %	0.79	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.76
Passes per match	350	385
Passes against per match	545	402
Switches of play per match	17.3	28.9
Long balls per match	27	32

Set pieces	Cagliari	Bologna
xG from free kicks	0.04	0
Corners per match	4	3.7
Corners against per match	6.3	6.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.62
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.4

Other	Cagliari	Bologna
Throw-in control	0.64	0.67

The goalkeepers	Elia Caprile (Cagliari)	Lukasz Skorupski (Bologna)
Saves	30	15
Save %	81%	65%
xG prevented	75%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cagliari

Fixtures, form & tips

Bologna

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cagliari vs Bologna according to our model?

The model gives Bologna a 46% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cagliari 25%, draw 29%, Bologna 46%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Cagliari vs Bologna?

The model expects 1.07 goals (xG) for Cagliari and 1.34 for Bologna, 2.41 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Cagliari or draw (1X) 54%, Bologna or draw (X2) 75% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.