01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Genoa or draw (1X)72%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
Serie AStadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova14°11 km/h
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GenoaLow block & directvs
VeneziaPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Genoa (44%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.40 (+1 %)
Genoa vs Venezia · Serie A
1 · Genoa 44%X 30%26% Venezia · 2
44%
30%
26%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Genoa vs Venezia (Serie A, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Genoa win 44%, draw 30%, Venezia win 26%. Expected goals (xG): Genoa 1.50, Venezia 1.12. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Genoa or draw 74%, Venezia or draw 56%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Genoa – Venezia
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Genoa's 44% win probability sets the stage, but the match feels tighter than the numbers suggest. The hosts hold a slight edge in points and expected points, yet Venezia's higher xG per match hints at threats they can pose. Despite Genoa's direct style, their xG of 0.83 per match underwhelms compared to Venezia's 1.5, suggesting that the visitors could be more efficient in front of goal.
Head-to-head history is scant with just two matches, splitting one win each. This offers little predictive power against the present form, where Genoa's defensive discipline (xGA of 1.2) has the upper hand over Venezia's defensive woes (xGA of 2.1). The most probable outcome, according to the model, is a 1-1 draw, aligning with its 30% draw probability. Both teams are expected to score, an outcome supported by the 53% probability.
The sharper angle here is the value found in the draw bet. With odds of 3.45 from Betsafe and Nordicbet offering a 2% edge, and LeoVegas at 3.4 with a 1% edge, the value on a stalemate stands out. A tight affair likely ends 1-1, making the under 2.5 goals slightly favorable, though by a narrow margin.
GenoaForm LDLWL
League ranking xG #19xGA #5xT #20xP/match #8Points #17
Key players
- Morten FrendrupCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.00
- Leo OstigardCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.02
- Mohameth Djibril Ibrahima SowCAMxG 0.02 · xT -0.01
VeneziaForm LLLLW
League ranking xG #10xGA #20xT #11xP/match #17Points #20
Key players
- Enrique Pérez MuñozCAMxG 0.01 · xT 0.13
- Antoine HainautRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.25
- Toma BašićCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.30
Match prediction: Genoa – Venezia
Predicted score matrix
Venezia →
Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–17.8%
0–24.6%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–010.6%
1–112.6%
1–26.8%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.2%
2–19.2%
2–25.1%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–04.1%
3–14.6%
3–22.6%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.1%
4+–12.4%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-08%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,50–1,12
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@1.86
Over 2,549%
@1.96
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Genoa or draw (1X)72%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Mikael Egill Ellertsson to score18%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Mikael Egill Ellertsson to score18%
- Gianluca Cristiano Busio to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw30% probability@3.40LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Genoa | X | 2 · Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.65 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | EV+ 1% 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Nordicbet | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.65 |
Odds updated 22 Oct, 01:37
Odds movement
10 %
48 %43 %
2.12 → 2.12
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.45 → 3.40
2+1 %
30 %25 %
3.35 → 3.40
Over 2,5+3 %
52 %47 %
1.85 → 1.90
LeoVegas · 26 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesGenoa 1Draw 0Venezia 1
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Genoa
Venezia
Genoa (5–13)
Venezia (6–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Genoa
Venezia
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Genoa
Venezia
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Genoa | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 3 |
| xPoints | 9.8 | 7.1 |
| xG per match | 0.83 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Genoa | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.44 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 314 | 415 |
| Passes against per match | 418 | 354 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.4 | 28.6 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Genoa | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| Other | Genoa | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Justin Bijlow (Genoa) | Filip Stanković (Venezia) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 19 | 34 |
| Save % | 61% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 48% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Genoa vs Venezia according to our model?
The model gives Genoa a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Genoa 44%, draw 30%, Venezia 26%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Genoa vs Venezia?
The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Genoa and 1.12 for Venezia, 2.62 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Genoa or draw (1X) 74%, Venezia or draw (X2) 56% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.