Lazio vs Parma Prediction: Home win 72% (24 Oct 2026)

Serie A24 October 2026Stadio Olimpico, Roma16°3,2 mm10 km/h

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LazioBalanced & physical

ParmaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Lazio (72%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 6.37 (+7 %)

1 · Lazio 72%X 18%11% Parma · 2

72%

18%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lazio vs Parma (Serie A, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Lazio win 72%, draw 18%, Parma win 11%. Expected goals (xG): Lazio 2.21, Parma 0.69. Most likely score: 2-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Lazio or draw 89%, Parma or draw 28%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Lazio – Parma

Anna Karlsson · 20 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

Lazio’s offensive unit, buoyed by an eight-match scoring streak, is set to clash with a Parma side that’s been struggling to find their footing. With 19 points already in the bag compared to Parma’s mere four, Lazio assert their dominance in the standings. Yet, this isn't just about numbers. Lazio's balanced and physical style is likely to overpower Parma’s reliance on counter-attacks and crosses, especially given the expected rain, which may dampen those long balls.

Lazio, riding the wave of three consecutive victories, have momentum firmly on their side. Despite a small head-to-head sample showing parity (1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss), it pales in comparison to Lazio's more comprehensive league form. The model's 72% probability for a Lazio victory further cements this outlook. Expected goals findings paint a similar picture, projecting Lazio at 2.21 and a meager 0.69 for the visitors. Parma’s defensive frailties are evident, conceding an average of 1.9 goals per match, a glaring weakness Lazio is poised to exploit.

Lazio appear primed to walk away with a tidy win, with 2-0 or 3-0 outcomes being the most likely. While the over 2.5 goals sits at a 55% probability, the weather may slightly temper the scoring spree. Moreover, the chance of both teams scoring is less than even, at 45%, further underscoring Parma's offensive struggles.

However, for those chasing value, there’s intriguing potential in the over 3.5 goals market. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 3.31, with the model suggesting it has a 9% edge. For those feeling particularly daring, Betsafe’s odds of 6.43 for over 4.5 goals carry a tempting 8% edge, setting the stage for a bold punt on a potential goal glut amidst the rain.

Lazio

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #7xT #6xP/match #12Points #2

Key players

Mattia ZaccagniLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.23
Boulaye DiaFxG 0.00 · xT -0.01
Nuno TavaresLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.30

Parma

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #17xT #16xP/match #19Points #19

Key players

Emanuele ValeriLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
Adrian BernabeCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.26
Mariano TroiloCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13

Match prediction: Lazio – Parma

Predicted score matrix

Parma →

Lazio →

0–05.7%

0–13.6%

0–21.3%

0–30.3%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.9%

1–18.7%

1–22.9%

1–30.7%

1–4+0.1%

2–013.4%

2–19.3%

2–23.2%

2–30.7%

2–4+0.1%

3–09.8%

3–16.8%

3–22.4%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–09.1%

4+–16.3%

4+–22.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-013%
2.1-012%
3.3-010%
4.2-19%
5.1-19%

Expected goals

2,21–0,69

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+17%

Under 2,545%

@1.96

Over 2,555%

@1.86EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lazio to win72%
Over 1.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lazio to win72%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Davide Frattesi to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Davide Frattesi to score29%
Christian Nahuel Ordóñez to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 4.517% probability@6.37BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
Over 4.517% probability@6.37NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
Over 3.533% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Lazio	X	2 · Parma
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 1.41	4.50	8.00
LeoVegas	EV+ 2% 1.42	4.40	7.50
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 1.41	4.55	8.10

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:37

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Lazio win since 17 October — the odds have shortened from 1.53 to 1.42 (−7%).

1-7 %

69 %59 %

1.53 → 1.42

X+7 %

27 %17 %

4.10 → 4.40

2+25 %

19 %9 %

6.00 → 7.50

Over 2,5-6 %

54 %44 %

1.95 → 1.83

LeoVegas · 31 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Lazio 1Draw 2Parma 1

Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Lazio come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Lazio have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Lazio

Parma

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Lazio (14–4)

Parma (4–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Lazio

Parma

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Lazio

Parma

The teams in numbers

Performance	Lazio	Parma
Points	19	4
xPoints	9.4	6.6
xG per match	1.3	0.82
xGA per match	1.3	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.09	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.16

Playing style	Lazio	Parma
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.57	0.28
xT per match	1.1	0.81
xTA per match	0.96	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.2
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	12	15
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.68
Passes per match	385	330
Passes against per match	411	463
Switches of play per match	25.6	27.8
Long balls per match	26	29

Set pieces	Lazio	Parma
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.12
Corners per match	5.1	3.4
Corners against per match	5	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.05	0.06
First touch, offensive corners %	0.47	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.37	0.33

Other	Lazio	Parma
Throw-in control	0.7	0.69

The goalkeepers	Christos Mandas (Lazio)	Edoardo Corvi (Parma)
Saves	30	25
Save %	88%	66%
xG prevented	87%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Lazio

Fixtures, form & tips

Parma

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Lazio vs Parma according to our model?

The model gives Lazio a 72% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lazio 72%, draw 18%, Parma 11%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Lazio vs Parma?

The model expects 2.21 goals (xG) for Lazio and 0.69 for Parma, 2.90 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Lazio or draw (1X) 89%, Parma or draw (X2) 28% and no draw (12) 82%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.