01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Roma to win78%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
Serie AStadio Olimpico, Roma16°5 km/h
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RomaPossession & high pressvs
CagliariLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Roma (78%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 5.34 (+30 %)
Roma vs Cagliari · Serie A
1 · Roma 78%X 14%8% Cagliari · 2
78%
14%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Roma vs Cagliari (Serie A, Tuesday, 27 October 2026): Roma win 78%, draw 14%, Cagliari win 8%. Expected goals (xG): Roma 2.55, Cagliari 0.78. Most likely score: 2-0 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Roma or draw 92%, Cagliari or draw 22%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.
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Analysis: Roma – Cagliari
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
With an unbeaten streak stretching 14 league matches, Roma are riding high, and their momentum seems poised to continue against Cagliari. The hosts have historically commanded their turf, winning 63% of home matches. The model gives them a commanding 78% chance to win tomorrow. Cagliari’s low defensive setup and direct playstyle, however, could pose a challenge to the possession-heavy Roma, but the gap in quality and form is stark.
The numbers paint a decisive picture: Roma boast 2.3 expected goals per match compared to Cagliari's 0.99. Defensively, the disparity is just as glaring, with the hosts allowing a mere 0.8 xGA to Cagliari's 1.6. While these figures suggest a commanding home performance, the small head-to-head sample of four matches since 2021 offers little resistance to the broader pattern: Roma should comfortably outclass their visitors.
Scoreline predictions lean towards a comfortable margin: 2-0 is the most likely at 12%, followed closely by 3-0 and 2-1. An over 2.5 goals outcome feels probable at a 65% expectation, although both teams finding the net is a coin flip at 50%. It's hard to see a scenario where Cagliari's attack troubles the hosts significantly, given their modest 0.78 expected goals for tomorrow’s clash.
For those hunting value, the odds for over 3.5 goals at 2.83 with Betsafe present a 21% edge, given the model's 43% probability. The more ambitious might eye the over 4.5 goals at 5.34 with Betsafe or Nordicbet, holding a significant 30% edge. While such scorelines demand a burst of attacking fireworks, Roma's penchant for home dominance could make it worth the gamble.
RomaForm WWDDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #1xP/match #1Points #3
Key players
- Bryan CristanteCMxG 0.17 · xT 0.12
- Gianluca ManciniCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
- Evan NdickaCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.03
CagliariForm WWWDL
League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #17xP/match #14Points #8
Key players
- Alessandro RomanoCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
- Yerry MinaCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.05
- Paul MendyFxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Roma – Cagliari
Predicted score matrix
Cagliari →
Roma →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.8%
0–12.6%
0–21.1%
0–30.3%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–08.9%
1–17.3%
1–22.8%
1–30.7%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–011.6%
2–19.1%
2–23.6%
2–30.9%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–09.9%
3–17.7%
3–23.0%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–011.6%
4+–19.1%
4+–23.6%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.3-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.1-09%
- 5.3-18%
Expected goals
2,55–0,78
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+24%
Under 2,535%
@2.16
Over 2,565%
@1.71EV+11%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Roma to win78%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Donyell Malen to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals65%
- Donyell Malen to score36%
- Yerry Fernando Mina González to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 4.524% probability@5.34BetsafeEV+30%reference odds
- Over 4.524% probability@5.34NordicbetEV+30%reference odds
- Over 3.543% probability@2.83BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Roma | X | 2 · Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 4% 1.33 | 5.05 | 9.30 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 6% 1.35 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 4% 1.33 | 5.10 | 9.50 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 09:36
Odds movement
1-1 %
74 %69 %
1.34 → 1.33
X+2 %
22 %17 %
5.00 → 5.10
2+2 %
13 %8 %
9.30 → 9.50
Over 2,5-1 %
58 %53 %
1.73 → 1.71
Nordicbet · 15 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesRoma 2Draw 1Cagliari 1
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.
Key facts
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches.
- AS Roma win 63% of their home matches all-time (99 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Roma
Cagliari
Roma (16–3)
Cagliari (6–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Roma
Cagliari
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Roma
Cagliari
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Roma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 13 |
| xPoints | 14.1 | 8.7 |
| xG per match | 2.3 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.63 | 0.14 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Roma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.63 | 0.26 |
| xT per match | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| xTA per match | 0.69 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 31 | 18 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| Entries into the box per match | 21 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 21 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 456 | 350 |
| Passes against per match | 356 | 545 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.7 | 17.3 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Roma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 2.6 | 6.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| Other | Roma | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.64 |
| The goalkeepers | Mile Svilar (Roma) | Elia Caprile (Cagliari) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 30 |
| Save % | 82% | 81% |
| xG prevented | 74% | 75% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Roma vs Cagliari according to our model?
The model gives Roma a 78% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roma 78%, draw 14%, Cagliari 8%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Roma vs Cagliari?
The model expects 2.55 goals (xG) for Roma and 0.78 for Cagliari, 3.34 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Roma or draw (1X) 92%, Cagliari or draw (X2) 22% and no draw (12) 86%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.