Sassuolo vs Lazio Prediction: Away win 47% (27 Oct 2026)

Serie A27 October 2026Mapei Stadium, Reggio Emilia12°7 km/h

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SassuoloBalanced & physical

LazioBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Lazio (47%)

1 · Sassuolo 27%X 25%47% Lazio · 2

27%

25%

47%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sassuolo vs Lazio (Serie A, Tuesday, 27 October 2026): Sassuolo win 27%, draw 25%, Lazio win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Sassuolo 1.29, Lazio 1.80. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Sassuolo or draw 53%, Lazio or draw 73%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sassuolo – Lazio

Erik Lindberg · 24 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Lazio's recent run of three consecutive victories sets the stage for their visit to a balanced and physical Sassuolo side. The numbers paint a picture of a match that leans toward the visitors, with a model probability of 47% for Lazio to come out on top. Despite Sassuolo's ability to hold their ground with expected goals slightly in their favor at 1.5 per match compared to Lazio's 1.3, it’s the defensive edge that could make the difference for the visitors.

While the head-to-head sample is small, showing a split with each team winning once, Lazio's current form and consistent scoring record—having found the net in eight consecutive league games—suggest they might have the upper hand. The model hints at a likely scoreline of 1-2, giving Lazio the nod. The over 2.5 goals market stands at 60%, indicating an expectation of at least three goals in the game. Both teams scoring is also high at 61%, further supporting an outcome where neither defense keeps a clean sheet.

In terms of underlying metrics, Sassuolo hold a slight advantage in expected points, sitting at 9.6 versus Lazio's 9.4. However, points accrued tell a different story, with Lazio ahead by a significant margin (19 to 8), reflecting their ability to capitalize on chances and secure wins. This aligns with the model's lean and gives weight to Lazio’s chances of extending their winning streak.

From a betting standpoint, the away win holds value at several bookmakers, notably offering a 14% edge with odds of 2.4 at Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. While not a guarantee, these odds present an opportunity worth considering for those looking to back the visitors in this clash.

Sassuolo

Form DWLDL

League ranking xG #8xGA #11xT #8xP/match #10Points #13

Key players

Cristian VolpatoRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.17
Domenico BerardiRWxG 0.28 · xT 0.06
Armand LaurienteLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.23

Lazio

Form WDWWW

League ranking xG #13xGA #7xT #6xP/match #12Points #2

Key players

Mattia ZaccagniLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.23
Nuno TavaresLWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
Reda BelahyaneCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.08

Match prediction: Sassuolo – Lazio

Predicted score matrix

Lazio →

Sassuolo →

0–04.9%

0–17.9%

0–27.4%

0–34.4%

0–4+3.0%

1–05.6%

1–110.9%

1–29.5%

1–35.7%

1–4+3.8%

2–03.8%

2–16.8%

2–26.1%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.5%

3–01.6%

3–12.9%

3–22.6%

3–31.6%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-18%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,29–1,80

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,540%

@2.18

Over 2,560%

@1.70EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Lazio to win47%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Lazio to win47%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Gustav Tang Isaksen to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Gustav Tang Isaksen to score22%
Nemanja Matić to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lazio47% probability@2.20BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
2 · Lazio47% probability@2.20LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
2 · Lazio47% probability@2.20NordicbetEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sassuolo	X	2 · Lazio
Betsafe	3.15	3.50	EV+ 4% 2.20
LeoVegas	3.10	3.55	EV+ 4% 2.20
Nordicbet	3.20	3.50	EV+ 4% 2.20

Odds updated 25 Oct, 09:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Lazio win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 2.45 to 2.20 (−10%).

1+13 %

37 %27 %

2.75 → 3.10

X+4 %

32 %22 %

3.40 → 3.55

2-10 %

45 %35 %

2.45 → 2.20

Over 2,50 %

60 %50 %

1.70 → 1.70

LeoVegas · 24 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Sassuolo 1Draw 0Lazio 1

Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Lazio come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Lazio have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sassuolo

Lazio

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sassuolo (12–14)

Lazio (14–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sassuolo

Lazio

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sassuolo

Lazio

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sassuolo	Lazio
Points	8	19
xPoints	9.6	9.4
xG per match	1.5	1.3
xGA per match	1.5	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.23

Playing style	Sassuolo	Lazio
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.3
Field tilt	0.48	0.57
xT per match	1.1	1.1
xTA per match	0.95	0.96
Won balls, offensive half	21	23
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.22
Entries into the box per match	14	11
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.8	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.76	0.75
Passes per match	392	385
Passes against per match	446	411
Switches of play per match	24.1	25.6
Long balls per match	32	26

Set pieces	Sassuolo	Lazio
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.05
Corners per match	4.3	5.1
Corners against per match	6.3	5
xG per corner	0.04	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.6	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.37

Other	Sassuolo	Lazio
Throw-in control	0.74	0.7

The goalkeepers	Arijanet Anan Murić (Sassuolo)	Christos Mandas (Lazio)
Saves	33	30
Save %	70%	88%
xG prevented	44%	87%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sassuolo

Fixtures, form & tips

Lazio

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sassuolo vs Lazio according to our model?

The model gives Lazio a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sassuolo 27%, draw 25%, Lazio 47%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sassuolo vs Lazio?

The model expects 1.29 goals (xG) for Sassuolo and 1.80 for Lazio, 3.09 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sassuolo or draw (1X) 53%, Lazio or draw (X2) 73% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.