Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction: Home win 38% (29 Oct 2026)

Serie A29 October 2026Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze14°16 km/h

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FiorentinaLow block & direct

AtalantaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Fiorentina (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.36 (+11 %)

1 · Fiorentina 38%X 27%35% Atalanta · 2

38%

27%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Fiorentina vs Atalanta (Serie A, Thursday, 29 October 2026): Fiorentina win 38%, draw 27%, Atalanta win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Fiorentina 1.40, Atalanta 1.40. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Fiorentina or draw 65%, Atalanta or draw 62%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.

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Analysis: Fiorentina – Atalanta

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT: The head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta since 2021 might suggest a slight edge for the visitors, who have secured two wins out of their four encounters. However, this small sample size doesn't overshadow the nuanced picture painted by current form and expected goals. With both teams showing evenly matched expected goals at 1.40 each, the underlying numbers suggest this clash is tighter than past results might imply.

Fiorentina, playing at home, leans on a low defensive line while employing a direct style of play. This approach contrasts with Atalanta's balanced and physical game, which could potentially exploit the vulnerabilities in the host's defense, as indicated by Fiorentina's higher expected goals against (1.6 compared to Atalanta's 2.0). Yet, in terms of xPoints, the hosts surprisingly edge out the visitors, 9.3 to 6.4, suggesting inefficiencies in Atalanta's ability to convert play into results.

The model slightly favors Fiorentina with a 38% probability of victory, but Atalanta's attacking prowess and physicality could tilt this balance, especially with both teams equally poised to score. The most likely scorelines, 1-1, 1-2, and 2-1, reflect a finely poised contest that could be decided by small margins or a moment of brilliance.

Ultimately, while the probabilities lean marginally towards Fiorentina, the value bet is on Atalanta at odds of 3.1 with Betsafe or Nordicbet, offering a 9% edge according to the model. This, coupled with a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals, suggests a bet on Atalanta to win with a likely scoreline of 1-2 in their favor holds the sharpest angle for punters looking to capitalize on market inefficiencies.

Fiorentina

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #7xP/match #13Points #18

Key players

Franco MastantuonoRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.17
Nicolò FagioliCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.14
Arthur AttaCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.13

Atalanta

Form LLLWL

League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #13xP/match #20Points #12

Key players

Nikola KrstovićFxG 0.53 · xT 0.10
Odilon KossounouCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.11
Gianluca ScamaccaFxG 0.11 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Fiorentina – Atalanta

Predicted score matrix

Atalanta →

Fiorentina →

0–06.4%

0–18.2%

0–26.0%

0–32.8%

0–4+1.3%

1–08.1%

1–112.3%

1–28.4%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.9%

2–05.9%

2–18.3%

2–25.8%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.8%

3–13.9%

3–22.7%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.3%

4+–11.9%

4+–21.3%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-28%
3.2-18%
4.0-18%
5.1-08%

Expected goals

1,40–1,40

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.36EV+11%

Over 2,553%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Fiorentina or draw (1X)63%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Fiorentina or draw (1X)63%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Franco Martín Mastantuono to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Nikola Krstović to score29%
Charles Marc S. De Ketelaere to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.547% probability@2.36BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.36NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
2 · Atalanta35% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fiorentina	X	2 · Atalanta
Betsafe	2.20	3.65	EV+ 7% 3.05
LeoVegas	2.25	3.50	EV+ 5% 3.00
Nordicbet	2.20	3.65	EV+ 9% 3.10
Pinnacle	2.29	3.53	EV+ 5% 3.00

Odds updated 26 Oct, 21:36

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Fiorentina 1Draw 1Atalanta 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fiorentina

Atalanta

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fiorentina (8–17)

Atalanta (10–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fiorentina

Atalanta

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fiorentina

Atalanta

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fiorentina	Atalanta
Points	4	9
xPoints	9.3	6.4
xG per match	1.4	1.1
xGA per match	1.6	2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.14

Playing style	Fiorentina	Atalanta
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.34
Field tilt	0.51	0.45
xT per match	1.1	0.98
xTA per match	1	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.19
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.15
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	12	16
Pass completion %	0.76	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.76
Passes per match	334	419
Passes against per match	411	507
Switches of play per match	17.9	21.4
Long balls per match	24	24

Set pieces	Fiorentina	Atalanta
xG from free kicks	0	0
Corners per match	5.2	3.4
Corners against per match	3.9	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.46
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.31

Other	Fiorentina	Atalanta
Throw-in control	0.63	0.79

The goalkeepers	David De Gea (Fiorentina)	Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta)
Saves	21	31
Save %	55%	74%
xG prevented	37%	52%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fiorentina

Fixtures, form & tips

Atalanta

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fiorentina vs Atalanta according to our model?

The model gives Fiorentina a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fiorentina 38%, draw 27%, Atalanta 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

The model expects 1.40 goals (xG) for Fiorentina and 1.40 for Atalanta, 2.80 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Fiorentina or draw (1X) 65%, Atalanta or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.