AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction: Home win 59% (28 Oct 2026)

Serie A28 October 2026San Siro, Milano12°6 km/h

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AC MilanPossession control

BolognaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · AC Milan (59%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.00 (+5 %)

1 · AC Milan 59%X 24%17% Bologna · 2

59%

24%

17%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for AC Milan vs Bologna (Serie A, Wednesday, 28 October 2026): AC Milan win 59%, draw 24%, Bologna win 17%. Expected goals (xG): AC Milan 1.85, Bologna 0.72. Most likely score: 1-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 44%. Double chance: AC Milan or draw 83%, Bologna or draw 41%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.

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Analysis: AC Milan – Bologna

Sofia Andersson · 24 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: AC Milan's statistical edge is clear, with a 59% probability of winning against Bologna, driven largely by their control-oriented playing style and recent unbeaten run in the league. They have also managed to find the net in 10 consecutive league matches, which suggests that their offensive form remains robust. Meanwhile, Bologna's balanced and physical approach may help them keep the game tight, but their historical performance against Milan is less encouraging, with only one win in their last four encounters since 2021.

Despite Milan's apparent superiority, the expected goals (xG) suggest a closer contest than initial perceptions might indicate. Milan's xG of 1.85 slightly outpaces Bologna's 0.72, yet the visitors' xPoints of 11.4 surpass Milan's 10.9, hinting at a potential underestimation of Bologna's tactical effectiveness over the season. However, Milan's defensive metrics, including a lower xGA of 0.96 compared to Bologna's 1.2, suggest they are better equipped to keep Bologna at bay.

The head-to-head record is limited, with just four matches, but it tilts heavily in favor of Milan, with three wins. Still, with the small sample size, this record holds less weight than the teams' current form and expected goals analysis. The most likely scorelines indicate a narrow Milan victory, with 1-0 (14%) and 2-0 (13%) as the top predictions. This aligns with the under 2.5 goals market which sits at 53%, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

Where bettors might find value is in the under 2.5 goals market, available at odds of 2.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and slightly lower at 1.98 with LeoVegas. With the model indicating a true likelihood of 53%, there’s a clear edge here that makes it a compelling choice. Given Milan's tendency to control possession and Bologna's physicality, a cautious, tactical match is in the cards, with the numbers favoring a classic 1-0 or 2-0 Milan win.

AC Milan

Form DDWDW

League ranking xG #5xGA #3xT #12xP/match #6Points #4

Key players

Strahinja PavlovićCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Samuel ChukwuezeRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.30
Christian PulisicFxG 0.14 · xT 0.12

Bologna

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #6xT #18xP/match #5Points #15

Key players

Lewis FergusonCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
Nicolò CasaleCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.01
Riccardo OrsoliniRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.21

Match prediction: AC Milan – Bologna

Predicted score matrix

Bologna →

AC Milan →

0–08.0%

0–15.2%

0–22.0%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–013.9%

1–110.5%

1–23.7%

1–30.9%

1–4+0.2%

2–013.1%

2–19.4%

2–23.4%

2–30.8%

2–4+0.2%

3–08.1%

3–15.8%

3–22.1%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.1%

4+–05.7%

4+–14.1%

4+–21.5%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.2-013%
3.1-110%
4.2-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

1,85–0,72

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@2.00EV+5%

Over 2,547%

@1.82

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

AC Milan to win59%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

AC Milan to win59%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Gonçalo Matias Ramos to score42%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Gonçalo Matias Ramos to score42%
Lewis Ferguson to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.553% probability@2.00BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Under 2.553% probability@2.00NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
Under 1.527% probability@3.82BetsafeEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · AC Milan	X	2 · Bologna
Betsafe	1.60	3.95	5.50
LeoVegas	1.61	4.00	5.25
Nordicbet	1.62	4.00	5.55

Odds updated 26 Oct, 08:35

Odds movement

10 %

61 %56 %

1.61 → 1.61

X0 %

26 %21 %

4.00 → 4.00

20 %

21 %16 %

5.25 → 5.25

Over 2,5+3 %

55 %50 %

1.75 → 1.80

LeoVegas · 32 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 26/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

AC Milan 3Draw 0Bologna 1

Goals: 8–3 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

AC Milan are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
AC Milan have scored in 10 consecutive league matches.
AC Milan win 59% of their home matches all-time (98 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

AC Milan

Bologna

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

AC Milan (14–7)

Bologna (6–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

AC Milan

Bologna

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

AC Milan

Bologna

The teams in numbers

Performance	AC Milan	Bologna
Points	15	5
xPoints	10.9	11.4
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	0.96	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.13

Playing style	AC Milan	Bologna
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.29
Field tilt	0.54	0.44
xT per match	1.1	0.8
xTA per match	0.79	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	22	16
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.21
Entries into the box per match	13	9
Entries into the box against	8	15
Pass completion %	0.84	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.76
Passes per match	524	385
Passes against per match	331	402
Switches of play per match	33.2	28.9
Long balls per match	33	32

Set pieces	AC Milan	Bologna
xG from free kicks	0.04	0
Corners per match	3	3.7
Corners against per match	3.1	6.5
xG per corner	0.09	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.67	0.62
First touch, defensive corners %	0.68	0.4

Other	AC Milan	Bologna
Throw-in control	0.73	0.67

The goalkeepers	Mike Maignan (AC Milan)	Lukasz Skorupski (Bologna)
Saves	18	15
Save %	72%	65%
xG prevented	46%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

AC Milan

Fixtures, form & tips

Bologna

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins AC Milan vs Bologna according to our model?

The model gives AC Milan a 59% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: AC Milan 59%, draw 24%, Bologna 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in AC Milan vs Bologna?

The model expects 1.85 goals (xG) for AC Milan and 0.72 for Bologna, 2.57 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

AC Milan or draw (1X) 83%, Bologna or draw (X2) 41% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.