Parma vs Udinese Prediction: Away win 35% (28 Oct 2026)

Serie A28 October 2026Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma11°6 km/h

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ParmaCounter-attacks & crosses

UdineseBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 2 · Udinese (35%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.12 (+5 %)

1 · Parma 34%X 31%35% Udinese · 2

34%

31%

35%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Parma vs Udinese (Serie A, Wednesday, 28 October 2026): Parma win 34%, draw 31%, Udinese win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Parma 1.24, Udinese 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Parma or draw 65%, Udinese or draw 66%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 20 October 2026.

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Analysis: Parma – Udinese

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The recent head-to-head encounters between Parma and Udinese offer a small yet telling sample: just four matches since 2021, with the visitors clinching three victories. While this historical pattern might suggest a slight psychological edge for Udinese, it is overshadowed by their troubling current form—five consecutive losses. Such a streak raises questions about their resilience and whether they can leverage past successes against the hosts.

The model's analysis paints a picture of a razor-thin contest, with Parma and Udinese neck-and-neck in probabilities — 34% for the hosts, 35% for the visitors. Expected goals (xG) figures are equally tight: Parma at 1.24 and Udinese at 1.32. Both teams show a marginal edge in xG and xGA metrics favoring Udinese, yet these advantages are thin and testament to the balanced nature of this matchup. The encounter is likely to be decided on fine margins, with both sides having only a slight chance of pulling ahead decisively.

When dissecting the playing styles, Parma's counter-attacking approach could be crucial against a more physical and balanced Udinese side. The expected goals within eight seconds of winning possession are identical for both teams, indicating neither has a pronounced edge in transitional play. The probability of both teams scoring is slightly above coin-flip territory at 52%, suggesting that while goals might emerge, they won't come freely.

The sharpest angle in this contest lies with the over 3.5 market. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer this at 4.12 odds, with the model rating it at 25%, hinting at a 5% value edge. For those looking at a more conservative play, Betsafe's over 2.5 at odds of 2.22 also presents a 4% edge. Given the close call on paper, backing goals might be the savviest approach.

Parma

Form DLWLL

League ranking xG #20xGA #17xT #16xP/match #19Points #19

Key players

Emanuele ValeriLWxG 0.01 · xT 0.17
Adrian BernabeCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.26
Mariano TroiloCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13

Udinese

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #15xGA #16xT #9xP/match #18Points #16

Key players

Jurgen EkkelenkampCAMxG 0.25 · xT 0.09
Mërgim VojvodaRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.20
Giorgi ChakvetadzeFxG 0.13 · xT 0.10

Match prediction: Parma – Udinese

Predicted score matrix

Udinese →

Parma →

0–08.1%

0–19.8%

0–26.7%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.3%

1–113.0%

1–28.3%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.0%

2–17.9%

2–25.2%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.5%

3–13.2%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,24–1,32

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@1.68

Over 2,547%

@2.22EV+4%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Udinese or draw (X2)66%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Udinese or draw (X2)66%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Jurgen Peter Ekkelenkamp to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Jurgen Peter Ekkelenkamp to score22%
Christian Nahuel Ordóñez to be booked18%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.525% probability@4.12BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
Over 3.525% probability@4.12NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
Over 2.547% probability@2.22BetsafeEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Parma	X	2 · Udinese
Betsafe	2.92	3.15	2.52
LeoVegas	2.90	3.20	2.50
Nordicbet	2.92	3.15	2.52

Odds updated 25 Oct, 01:36

Odds movement

10 %

35 %30 %

2.90 → 2.90

X0 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.20

2+2 %

41 %36 %

2.45 → 2.50

Over 2,5+2 %

47 %42 %

2.10 → 2.15

LeoVegas · 15 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Parma 1Draw 0Udinese 3

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on Serie A data since 2021.

Key facts

Udinese Calcio have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Parma

Udinese

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Parma (4–13)

Udinese (9–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Parma

Udinese

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Parma

Udinese

The teams in numbers

Performance	Parma	Udinese
Points	4	4
xPoints	6.6	6.9
xG per match	0.82	1.1
xGA per match	1.9	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.16	0.44

Playing style	Parma	Udinese
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.28
Field tilt	0.28	0.55
xT per match	0.81	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	0.94
Won balls, offensive half	22	25
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.22
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	15	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.75
Passes per match	330	405
Passes against per match	463	398
Switches of play per match	27.8	28.2
Long balls per match	29	34

Set pieces	Parma	Udinese
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.01
Corners per match	3.4	3.9
Corners against per match	5.2	5.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.07
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.59
First touch, defensive corners %	0.33	0.5

Other	Parma	Udinese
Throw-in control	0.69	0.69

The goalkeepers	Edoardo Corvi (Parma)	Maduka Okoye (Udinese)
Saves	25	31
Save %	66%	66%
xG prevented	50%	47%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Parma

Fixtures, form & tips

Udinese

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Parma vs Udinese according to our model?

The model gives Udinese a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Parma 34%, draw 31%, Udinese 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Parma vs Udinese?

The model expects 1.24 goals (xG) for Parma and 1.32 for Udinese, 2.56 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Parma or draw (1X) 65%, Udinese or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.