Sevilla FC vs Osasuna Prediction: Home win 47% (26 Oct 2026)

La Liga26 October 2026 21:00 CETRamón Sánchez-Pizjuán, Sevilla20°7 km/h

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Sevilla FCPossession control

OsasunaBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Sevilla FC (47%)Best value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 4.02 (+8 %)

1 · Sevilla FC 47%X 30%23% Osasuna · 2

47%

30%

23%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sevilla FC vs Osasuna (La Liga, Monday, 26 October 2026): Sevilla FC win 47%, draw 30%, Osasuna win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Sevilla FC 1.57, Osasuna 1.05. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Sevilla FC or draw 77%, Osasuna or draw 53%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sevilla FC – Osasuna

Erik Lindberg · 20 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Sevilla FC's unimpressive head-to-head record against Osasuna, with just one win in the last eight encounters, might suggest trouble for the hosts. Yet, it's their recent league form — scoring in nine consecutive matches — that offers a glimmer of resilience. Possession control defines their style, aiming to dictate the pace and restrict Osasuna's physical game. Despite Osasuna's historical dominance in this matchup, their balanced approach faces a tactical challenge against Sevilla's ball retention.

The most probable scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, indicate a tight affair. Sevilla's slight edge in expected goals (1.57 to Osasuna's 1.05) suggests they might just edge out a victory, but not without a fight from the visitors. Both teams to score stands at 52%, reflecting the balanced threat each side poses. With only 49% probability for over 2.5 goals, the game leans under, mirroring the defensive and controlled aspect of Sevilla's play.

Osasuna may hold a marginal lead in expected points (14.2 to Sevilla’s 12.3) and xG per match (1.6 to Sevilla’s 1.2), but it's Sevilla’s ability to generate chances promptly after winning the ball (0.28 xG) that could be decisive, exploiting any lapse in Osasuna's defense. Despite Osasuna's historical success, the model favors Sevilla at 47% to triumph, aligning with their solid recent form.

For the punters, the key angle might lie in the over 3.5 goals market. The odds stand at 4.02 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, providing an 8% value edge as rated by the model. While it’s a riskier play given the goal-scoring probabilities, those seeking higher rewards might find this appealing. With the model's backing, it's the sharpest betting edge in a fixture that could otherwise be dominated by tactical caution.

Sevilla FC

Form WWLDL

League ranking xG #13xGA #11xT #10xP/match #11Points #6

Key players

Kike SalasCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.07
Gabriel SuazoLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Youssouf FofanaCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.13

Osasuna

Form LLDLW

League ranking xG #6xGA #12xT #12xP/match #5Points #9

Key players

Alejandro CatenaCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Ante BudimirFxG 0.77 · xT 0.00
Kike BarjaLWxG 0.30 · xT 0.23

Match prediction: Sevilla FC – Osasuna

Predicted score matrix

Osasuna →

Sevilla FC →

0–07.6%

0–17.3%

0–24.0%

0–31.4%

0–4+0.5%

1–011.1%

1–112.4%

1–26.3%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.0%

2–19.4%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.7%

3–14.9%

3–22.6%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.7%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-09%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,57–1,05

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.70

Over 2,549%

@2.18EV+6%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Sevilla FC to win47%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Sevilla FC to win47%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Gerard Fernández Castellano to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Gerard Fernández Castellano to score25%
Iker Muñoz Cameros to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.527% probability@4.02BetsafeEV+8%reference odds
Over 3.527% probability@4.02NordicbetEV+8%reference odds
Over 4.513% probability@8.56BetsafeEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Sevilla FC	X	2 · Osasuna
Betsafe	1.90	EV+ 3% 3.45	4.15
LeoVegas	1.98	EV+ 0% 3.35	3.95
Nordicbet	1.90	EV+ 3% 3.45	4.15
Pinnacle	1.94	EV+ 2% 3.39	4.06

Odds updated 22 Oct, 04:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

8 matches

Sevilla FC 1Draw 3Osasuna 4

Goals: 7–10 (⌀ 2,1)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

Key facts

CA Osasuna dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 8 meetings.
Sevilla FC have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sevilla FC

Osasuna

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sevilla FC (14–16)

Osasuna (10–18)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sevilla FC

Osasuna

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sevilla FC

Osasuna

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sevilla FC	Osasuna
Points	14	11
xPoints	12.3	14.2
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.37	0.17

Playing style	Sevilla FC	Osasuna
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.47	0.44
xT per match	0.87	0.78
xTA per match	0.89	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	32	23
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.21	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	9
Entries into the box against	11	11
Pass completion %	0.71	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.7
Passes per match	264	329
Passes against per match	420	411
Switches of play per match	21.5	29.6
Long balls per match	30	38

Set pieces	Sevilla FC	Osasuna
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.04
Corners per match	2.9	3.6
Corners against per match	3.2	5
xG per corner	0.01	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.47
First touch, defensive corners %	0.57	0.73

Other	Sevilla FC	Osasuna
Throw-in control	0.73	0.83

The goalkeepers	Odysseas Vlachodimos (Sevilla FC)	Aitor Fernández (Osasuna)
Saves	28	14
Save %	64%	61%
xG prevented	41%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sevilla FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Osasuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sevilla FC vs Osasuna according to our model?

The model gives Sevilla FC a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sevilla FC 47%, draw 30%, Osasuna 23%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sevilla FC vs Osasuna?

The model expects 1.57 goals (xG) for Sevilla FC and 1.05 for Osasuna, 2.62 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sevilla FC or draw (1X) 77%, Osasuna or draw (X2) 53% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.