Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction: Away win 56% (24 Oct 2026)

La Liga24 October 2026 18:30 CESTMestalla, Valencia18°9 km/h

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ValenciaCounter-attacks & crosses

VillarrealPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Villarreal (56%)

1 · Valencia 20%X 24%56% Villarreal · 2

20%

24%

56%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Valencia vs Villarreal (La Liga, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Valencia win 20%, draw 24%, Villarreal win 56%. Expected goals (xG): Valencia 1.14, Villarreal 1.93. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Valencia or draw 44%, Villarreal or draw 80%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Valencia – Villarreal

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Villarreal enters this match with a commanding 56% probability of victory, underscoring their dominance in recent form and head-to-head encounters. The hosts have not beaten their regional rivals in the last four meetings, a small sample size but still telling. Valencia's reliance on counter-attacks contrasts sharply with the visitors' possession-based approach, which is likely to dictate the game's rhythm.

The model leans towards Villarreal, reflecting their superior xG of 1.8 per match compared to Valencia's 0.89. Expected goals against further tilt the scales, with the visitors boasting a lower xGA of 1.1 versus the 1.5 of the hosts. Despite Valencia's home advantage, these metrics strongly favor the visitors. The market's over 2.5 goals probability is 59%, which aligns with the open playing style both teams often exhibit.

In betting terms, significant value lies with Villarreal at odds 2.2 with LeoVegas and 2.18 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, given the model's 56% win rating—a 22-23% edge over bookmaker odds. With a projected most likely scoreline of 1-2, backing the visitors not only fits the data but presents an attractive betting proposition.

Valencia

Form LWLDD

League ranking xG #18xGA #14xT #21xP/match #15Points #19

Key players

Guido RodríguezCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.01
PepeluCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
David Otorbi EjedewaweRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.22

Villarreal

Form LWWLD

League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #2xP/match #4Points #14

Key players

Pau NavarroCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.05
Juan FoythCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.17
Nicolas PépéRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.14

Match prediction: Valencia – Villarreal

Predicted score matrix

Villarreal →

Valencia →

0–04.9%

0–18.6%

0–28.6%

0–35.6%

0–4+4.2%

1–05.0%

1–110.5%

1–29.9%

1–36.3%

1–4+4.8%

2–03.0%

2–15.8%

2–25.6%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.7%

3–01.1%

3–12.2%

3–22.1%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-29%
5.1-36%

Expected goals

1,14–1,93

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.13

Over 2,559%

@1.73EV+3%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Villarreal to win56%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Villarreal to win56%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Ayoze Pérez Gutiérrez to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Aaron Ndive Mayol de la Cueva to score27%
Renato Palma Veiga to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Villarreal56% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+26%reference odds
2 · Villarreal56% probability@2.18BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
2 · Villarreal56% probability@2.18NordicbetEV+22%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Valencia	X	2 · Villarreal
Betsafe	3.10	3.65	EV+ 22% 2.18
LeoVegas	3.05	3.50	EV+ 26% 2.25
Nordicbet	3.10	3.60	EV+ 22% 2.18

Odds updated 22 Oct, 06:37

Odds movement

1-5 %

33 %28 %

3.20 → 3.05

X-3 %

29 %24 %

3.60 → 3.50

2+5 %

46 %41 %

2.15 → 2.25

Over 2,50 %

58 %53 %

1.67 → 1.67

LeoVegas · 27 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Valencia 0Draw 2Villarreal 2

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on La Liga data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Valencia

Villarreal

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Valencia (6–15)

Villarreal (13–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Valencia

Villarreal

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Valencia

Villarreal

The teams in numbers

Performance	Valencia	Villarreal
Points	6	9
xPoints	11	14.5
xG per match	0.89	1.8
xGA per match	1.5	1.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.19	0.21
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.46	0.16

Playing style	Valencia	Villarreal
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.36	0.68
xT per match	0.57	1.5
xTA per match	1.1	0.74
Won balls, offensive half	18	24
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.25
Entries into the box per match	10	18
Entries into the box against	16	12
Pass completion %	0.76	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.75
Passes per match	353	504
Passes against per match	440	309
Switches of play per match	23.6	27.7
Long balls per match	30	29

Set pieces	Valencia	Villarreal
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.03
Corners per match	4	7.1
Corners against per match	4.5	4.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.72	0.53

Other	Valencia	Villarreal
Throw-in control	0.7	0.71

The goalkeepers	Stole Dimitrievski (Valencia)	Peter Gulacsi (Villarreal)
Saves	33	14
Save %	72%	74%
xG prevented	42%	59%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Valencia

Fixtures, form & tips

Villarreal

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Valencia vs Villarreal according to our model?

The model gives Villarreal a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Valencia 20%, draw 24%, Villarreal 56%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Valencia vs Villarreal?

The model expects 1.14 goals (xG) for Valencia and 1.93 for Villarreal, 3.07 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Valencia or draw (1X) 44%, Villarreal or draw (X2) 80% and no draw (12) 76%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.