La LigaMendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz14°31 km/h

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    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo AlavesCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    MalagaMalagaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Deportivo Alaves (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Malaga @ 5.00 (+16 %)

    Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga · La Liga

    1 · Deportivo Alaves 48%X 29%23% Malaga · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga (La Liga, Friday, 23 October 2026): Deportivo Alaves win 48%, draw 29%, Malaga win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Deportivo Alaves 1.57, Malaga 0.95. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Deportivo Alaves or draw 77%, Malaga or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Deportivo Alaves – Malaga

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    Deportivo Alaves enters this contest with a compelling 48% win probability, drawing a clear line between them and Malaga's 23% chance. The hosts' tactical preference for counter-attacks and crossing aligns with their slightly superior xG of 1.1 per match, suggesting they'll exploit any gaps left by Malaga's high-pressing style. This tactical divergence could lead to a tightly contested affair, but Alaves' defensive edge — allowing only 1.2 xGA per game — suggests Malaga's possession game might struggle to penetrate.

    The most anticipated outcomes are a 1-1 or 1-0 finish, both rated at 12%. These predictions reflect a cautious expectation for scoring, with the over 2.5 goals probability at just 46%. Deportivo Alaves, boasting 11 points and a favorable xPoints of 12.7, look better positioned than their opponents, who have only accumulated 4 points and 8.8 xPoints so far. The model suggests a low-scoring game, leaning towards Alaves taking the win, perhaps by a narrow 1-0 margin.

    Despite the model's skew towards the hosts, there's an enticing value play with Malaga. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 4.75 for an away win, indicating an 11% edge. This suggests a viable long-shot punt, despite the apparent edge for the home side.

    Deportivo AlavesDeportivo Alaves
    Form LLDLL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #8xT #7xP/match #10Points #7
    Key players
    • Toni MartinezFxG 0.28 · xT 0.09
    • Mariano DiazFxG 0.29 · xT 0.12
    • Lucas BoyeFxG 0.37 · xT 0.07
    MalagaMalaga
    Form DLLDL
    League ranking xG #20xGA #16xT #18xP/match #21Points #20
    Key players
    • Carlos Dotor GonzálezCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
    • Ángel Recio GutiérrezCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
    • Pablo MartinezCAMxG 0.06 · xT 0.10

    Match prediction: Deportivo Alaves – Malaga

    Predicted score matrix

    Malaga →
    Deportivo Alaves →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.4%
    0–17.3%
    0–23.7%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.3%
    1
    1–012.3%
    1–112.4%
    1–25.7%
    1–31.8%
    1–4+0.5%
    2
    2–09.9%
    2–19.4%
    2–24.5%
    2–31.4%
    2–4+0.4%
    3
    3–05.2%
    3–14.9%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–02.9%
    4+–12.7%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-012%
    3. 3.2-010%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-08%
    Expected goals
    1,57–0,95
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.79
    Over 2,546%
    @2.09

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Deportivo Alaves to win48%
    • Under 3.5 goals75%

    Combined probability

    37%

    Fair odds

    2.72

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Deportivo Alaves to win48%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Lucas Ariel Boyé to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Lucas Ariel Boyé to score25%
    • Izan Merino Rodríguez to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Malaga23% probability@5.00BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
    • 2 · Malaga23% probability@5.00NordicbetEV+16%reference odds
    • 2 · Malaga23% probability@4.96PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Deportivo AlavesX2 · Malaga
    Betsafe1.70
    EV+ 6%
    3.70
    EV+ 16%
    5.00
    LeoVegas1.80
    EV+ 3%
    3.60
    EV+ 9%
    4.70
    Nordicbet1.70
    EV+ 6%
    3.70
    EV+ 16%
    5.00
    Pinnacle1.76
    EV+ 7%
    3.71
    EV+ 15%
    4.96

    Odds updated 22 Oct, 07:37

    Odds movement

    10 %
    57 %52 %

    1.75 → 1.76

    X-1 %
    28 %23 %

    3.74 → 3.71

    20 %
    22 %17 %

    4.95 → 4.96

    Over 2,5+1 %
    49 %44 %

    2.07 → 2.09

    Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 21/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Deportivo Alaves
    Malaga
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Deportivo Alaves (13–10)
    Malaga (6–18)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Alaves
    Jonny Otto: 152 passningar, xT 0.25OttoAntonio Blanco: 150 passningar, xT 0.42BlancoNahuel Tenaglia: 135 passningar, xT 0.6TenagliaNicolás Valentini: 131 passningar, xT 0.52ValentiniVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 130 passningar, xT 0.11KoskiAbderrahmane Rebbach: 121 passningar, xT 0.14RebbachAntonio Sivera: 102 passningar, xT 0.25SiveraDenis Suarez: 99 passningar, xT 0.22SuarezPablo Ibanez: 98 passningar, xT 0.15IbanezLucas Boye: 58 passningar, xT 0.08BoyeAnder Guevara: 53 passningar, xT 0.03Guevara
    Malaga
    Ángel Recio Gutiérrez: 255 passningar, xT 0.34GutiérrezRafael Garrido Hierro: 221 passningar, xT 0.2HierroDani Lorenzo: 168 passningar, xT 0.11LorenzoAlfonso Herrero: 156 passningar, xT 0.06HerreroPablo Martinez: 131 passningar, xT 0.49MartinezCarlos Dotor González: 123 passningar, xT 0.17GonzálezDavid Larrubia: 120 passningar, xT 0.72LarrubiaRamon Enriquez: 113 passningar, xT 0.2EnriquezIzan Merino: 107 passningar, xT 0.1MerinoFernando Calero: 98 passningar, xT 0.23CaleroEinar Galilea: 98 passningar, xT 0.06Galilea
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Deportivo Alaves
    Jonny Otto: 152 passningar, xT 0.25OttoAntonio Blanco: 150 passningar, xT 0.42BlancoNahuel Tenaglia: 135 passningar, xT 0.6TenagliaNicolás Valentini: 131 passningar, xT 0.52ValentiniVille Aleksi Jukanpoika Koski: 130 passningar, xT 0.11KoskiAbderrahmane Rebbach: 121 passningar, xT 0.14RebbachAntonio Sivera: 102 passningar, xT 0.25SiveraDenis Suarez: 99 passningar, xT 0.22SuarezPablo Ibanez: 98 passningar, xT 0.15IbanezLucas Boye: 58 passningar, xT 0.08BoyeAnder Guevara: 53 passningar, xT 0.03Guevara
    Malaga
    Ángel Recio Gutiérrez: 255 passningar, xT 0.34GutiérrezRafael Garrido Hierro: 221 passningar, xT 0.2HierroDani Lorenzo: 168 passningar, xT 0.11LorenzoAlfonso Herrero: 156 passningar, xT 0.06HerreroPablo Martinez: 131 passningar, xT 0.49MartinezCarlos Dotor González: 123 passningar, xT 0.17GonzálezDavid Larrubia: 120 passningar, xT 0.72LarrubiaRamon Enriquez: 113 passningar, xT 0.2EnriquezIzan Merino: 107 passningar, xT 0.1MerinoFernando Calero: 98 passningar, xT 0.23CaleroEinar Galilea: 98 passningar, xT 0.06Galilea

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceDeportivo AlavesMalaga
    Points114
    xPoints12.78.8
    xG per match1.10.83
    xGA per match1.21.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.170.13
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.080.35
    Playing styleDeportivo AlavesMalaga
    Build-up efficiency0.330.33
    Field tilt0.40.47
    xT per match10.66
    xTA per match0.781.1
    Won balls, offensive half2822
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.280.25
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.2
    Entries into the box per match129
    Entries into the box against1113
    Pass completion %0.730.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.650.77
    Passes per match279419
    Passes against per match422411
    Switches of play per match19.228.3
    Long balls per match2929
    Set piecesDeportivo AlavesMalaga
    xG from free kicks0.050.02
    Corners per match3.85.6
    Corners against per match5.14.8
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.020.04
    First touch, offensive corners %0.350.32
    First touch, defensive corners %0.530.49
    OtherDeportivo AlavesMalaga
    Throw-in control0.720.7
    The goalkeepersAntonio Sivera (Deportivo Alaves)Alfonso Herrero (Malaga)
    Saves3034
    Save %75%67%
    xG prevented50%47%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Deportivo Alaves
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Malaga
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga according to our model?

    The model gives Deportivo Alaves a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Deportivo Alaves 48%, draw 29%, Malaga 23%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga?

    The model expects 1.57 goals (xG) for Deportivo Alaves and 0.95 for Malaga, 2.52 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Deportivo Alaves or draw (1X) 77%, Malaga or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 71%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.